Caribbean - Central America Weather

[underthwx]

Flood Warning
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
635 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC003-005-099-200630-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0065.110919T2235Z-110920T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MOCA PR-AGUADILLA PR-AGUADA PR-
635 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
AGUADA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
AGUADILLA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOCA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 230 AM AST TUESDAY

* AT 632 PM AST RIVER GAGES ALONG THE CULEBRINAS RIVER IN MOCA AND
AGUADA WERE RISING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE BEFORE 8 PM
AST.

* AT FLOOD STAGE HIGHWAY 111 FROM AGUADILLA TO MOCA WILL
BE AFFECTED BY FLOODING ESPECIALLY AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
125. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE RIVER WILL BE OUT OF ITS BANKS IN
SECTOR SALTO DE TAQULO.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO
HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO
FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6704 1834 6706 1841 6719 1842 6716

$$

SNELL

[underthwx]

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
636 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC009-015-019-025-035-039-041-043-045-057-075-095-107-109-113-123-
129-133-149-151-200130-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0462.110919T2236Z-110920T0130Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ARROYO PR-BARRANQUITAS PR-CAGUAS PR-CAYEY PR-CIALES PR-CIDRA PR-
COAMO PR-COMERIO PR-GUAYAMA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-MAUNABO PR-OROCOVIS PR-
PATILLAS PR-PONCE PR-SALINAS PR-SAN LORENZO PR-SANTA ISABEL PR-
VILLALBA PR-YABUCOA PR-AIBONITO PR-
636 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
ARROYO...BARRANQUITAS...CAGUAS...CAYEY...CIALES...CIDRA...
COAMO...COMERIO...GUAYAMA...JUANA DIAZ...MAUNABO...OROCOVIS...
PATILLAS...PONCE...SALINAS...SAN LORENZO...SANTA ISABEL...
VILLALBA...YABUCOA AND AIBONITO

* UNTIL 930 PM AST

* AT 630 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. MOREOVER...NEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN WILL FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
QUICKLY RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD
WATERS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1793 6631 1796 6631 1797 6633 1794 6637
1794 6640 1798 6646 1799 6654 1820 6653
1818 6598 1812 6592 1805 6582 1796 6604
1792 6622

$$

ER
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
619 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC001-023-055-059-067-073-075-079-093-097-111-113-121-125-153-
200115-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0461.110919T2219Z-110920T0115Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GUANICA PR-GUAYANILLA PR-HORMIGUEROS PR-JAYUYA PR-JUANA DIAZ PR-
LAJAS PR-MARICAO PR-PENUELAS PR-PONCE PR-SABANA GRANDE PR-
SAN GERMAN PR-YAUCO PR-ADJUNTAS PR-CABO ROJO PR-MAYAGUEZ PR-
619 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
GUANICA...GUAYANILLA...HORMIGUEROS...JAYUYA...JUANA DIAZ...
LAJAS...MARICAO...PENUELAS...PONCE...SABANA GRANDE...SAN
GERMAN...YAUCO...ADJUNTAS...CABO ROJO AND MAYAGUEZ

* UNTIL 915 PM AST

* AT 615 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.THESE SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLOODING
IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1824 6705 1820 6702 1821 6697 1817 6684
1822 6683 1821 6668 1817 6666 1821 6664
1820 6655 1797 6656 1796 6676 1799 6677
1796 6679 1795 6721 1802 6719 1818 6719
1820 6717 1825 6718

$$

ER

[underthwx]

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
551 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRZ004-006-007-009>011-200000-
EASTERN INTERIOR-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-
551 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

.NOW...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN HAVE
DEVELOPED IN A LINE FROM HORMIGUEROS AND SAN GERMAN TO
VILLALBA...OROCOVIS AND BARRANQUITAS. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE EXPECTED
BEFORE 7 PM IN MAYAGUEZ...MARICAO...ADJUNTAS...AND JAYUYA.


$$

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[underthwx]

isories


Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code

Special Marine Warning
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ732-735-200000-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.MA.W.0130.110919T2302Z-110920T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
702 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM...
CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N...

* UNTIL 800 PM AST

* AT 651 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR
GREATER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN...ABOUT 10 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA VIENTO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. SOME OF
THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE SUDDEN WATERSPOUTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE
OPEN WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED
METAL OBJECTS.

&&

LAT...LON 1798 6665 1794 6618 1797 6590 1761 6572
1763 6649
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 151DEG 9KT 1775 6609

$$

ER

[cycloneye]

Gusty,anything yet from the mets there on a possible cyclone for the weekend?

[underthwx]

CE...new NHC update shortly...what do you predict on percentage???...

[underthwx]

Marine Weather Statement
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
719 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

AMZ710-712-715-725-732-735-741-742-745-200330-
ATLC WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT
10 NM-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N-
COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-
719 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

AT 710 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OVER THE SURROUNDING
COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.

THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...STRONG
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 33 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS.
WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN BOATS AND CREATE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
SEAS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM
PASSES.

STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN.

$$

[Gustywind]

Gusty,anything yet from the mets there on a possible cyclone for the weekend?

Maybe you're sniffing something and you're maybe right Cycloneye as our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said in their latest weather forecast 5PM... " Wednesday and Thursday, few changes, the sun is hidden intermittently by carrying clouds, waiting for the passage of a disturbed area more organized for the end of the week and whose evolution remains to be set".

In others we have to wait and see, but i'm a bit surprised by these words from Meteo-France. Seems that the probability to see a perturbed area is apparently very strong?!

[cycloneye]

Gusty,anything yet from the mets there on a possible cyclone for the weekend?

Maybe you're sniffing something and you're maybe right Cycloneye as our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said in their latest weather forecast 5PM... " Wednesday and Thursday, few changes, the sun is hidden intermittently by carrying clouds, waiting for the passage of a disturbed area more organized for the end of the week and whose evolution remains to be set".

In others we have to wait and see, but i'm a bit surprised by these words from Meteo-France. Seems that the probability to see a perturbed area is apparently very strong?!

Thank you for that information. It looks like the whole area is watching the invest as here in San Juan,all the TV mets are talking about it.Let's see what happens in the next couple of days to see if it develops or not.

[underthwx]

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 192312 AAA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
712 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

.UPDATE...A MASS OF CONVECTION IS MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND BRINGING VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
FLOW HAS BEEN PULLED UP BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT CONTINUES TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AS CONVECTION WORKS ITS WAY THROUGH PUERTO RICO
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE CONSIDERABLY BEFORE REACHING THE NORTH HALF
OF THE ISLAND AND ALSO AFTER ABOUT 10 PM AST. HOWEVER IN THE
MEANTIME THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF AREAS WITH URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO. ONLY
A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
GENERAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD END AFTER 2 AM AST...BUT RETURN
BEFORE NOON TO PUERTO RICO.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND IFR ARE MOVING THROUGH PUERTO RICO
FROM THE SOUTH AND MOST MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE EAST ABOUT
1550 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[underthwx]

Flash Flood Warning
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC001-075-113-133-200230-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0144.110919T2336Z-110920T0230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
736 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
JUANA DIAZ
PONCE
SANTA ISABEL
ADJUNTAS

* UNTIL 1030 PM AST

* AT 727 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THESE MUNICIPALITIES OF
PUERTO RICO. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL...ON ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS AND SWOLLEN RIVERS...WILL CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF
FLOODING ON THE LOCAL CREEKS...STREAMS AND RIVERS ACROSS THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. IN ADDITION...MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW CAN BE
EXPECTED IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1799 6648 1796 6655 1798 6668 1812 6668
1814 6673 1818 6670 1817 6667 1815 6667
1815 6655 1808 6651 1808 6645 1804 6642
1801 6634 1794 6638

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[underthwx]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 192353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 37W-41W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT
5-10 KT.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO
9N25W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N39W TO 14N44W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH NO
INTER-TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 13W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 30W-34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 37W-41W...AND FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AIRMASS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND
FLORIDA S OF 30N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE ALSO OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. MORE RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH 10-15 KT E-SE
WINDS. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND RAIN TO ADVECT CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER FLORIDA...CUBA ...
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 63W-69W TO INCLUDE THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 21N78W TO 13N79W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH
AXIS TO INCLUDE E CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N COLOMBIA TO S COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 77W-84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 65W-72W. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. EXPECT THE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DRIFT W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ALONG THE COAST
OF FLORIDA AND THE N BAHAMAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 49W-51W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 39N19W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 25N35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 63W-73W.
EXPECT THE SURFACE LOWS OVER THE TROPICS TO BE THE DOMINATE
WEATHER PRODUCERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THEY MOVE W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

[Gustywind]

No problem my friend, you're welcome . Agree with that, looks like chances are maybe increasing for the E and NE Carib to see a possible threat from a tropical system during the next couple of days, monitor monitor is maybe the appropriate term for the moment. Wait and see.

[underthwx]

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
816 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

PRC007-025-037-053-063-077-085-089-103-119-200215-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0463.110920T0016Z-110920T0215Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAGUAS PR-CEIBA PR-GURABO PR-NAGUABO PR-JUNCOS PR-LAS PIEDRAS PR-
AGUAS BUENAS PR-FAJARDO PR-LUQUILLO PR-RIO GRANDE PR-
816 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID RIVER RISES IN
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
CAGUAS...CEIBA...GURABO...NAGUABO...JUNCOS...LAS PIEDRAS...AGUAS
BUENAS...FAJARDO...LUQUILLO AND RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 1015 PM AST

* AT 814 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS RAINFALL WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS
RAPID RIVER RISES.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1841 6576 1838 6570 1838 6562 1827 6562
1826 6560 1822 6559 1819 6573 1821 6583
1813 6588 1814 6591 1823 6595 1823 6616
1827 6617 1830 6598 1825 6586 1828 6583
1843

[underthwx]

SFWMD MODELS:98L


https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC141-200400-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0145.110920T0101Z-110920T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
901 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
UTUADO

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

* AT 849 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL HAS CAUSED SHARP RISES RIO GRANDE DE
ARECIBO IN UTUADO. AT 8:50 PM AST...USGS RIVER SENSOR INDICATED
THE RIVER AT 9.89 FEET AND RISING RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE IS
10 FEET.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1827 6676 1832 6669 1832 6665 1829 6666
1827 6670 1822 6669 1824 6677

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[cycloneye]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
PRC151-200415-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FF.W.0146.110920T0118Z-110920T0415Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
918 PM AST MON SEP 19 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
YABUCOA

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

* AT 910 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING OVER THE WARNED AREA AND ADDITIONAL RAIN
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR. RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL
HAS CAUSED SHARP RISES RIO GUYANES IN YABUCOA. AT 915 PM AST...
USGS RIVER SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER AT 21.55 FEET AND RISING
RAPIDLY AND FLOOD STAGE IS 22 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1807 6600 1811 6588 1806 6580 1805 6581
1805 6582 1803 6582 1802 6583

$$

ER

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Macrocane]

Hey guys I have been thinking that it may be a good idea if we had another thread for the flood warnings and other types of warnings, and keep this thread for observations, general discussions, official discussion, news, etc. I say this because sometimes there are lots of flood warnings and we have to go back several pages to see what we were talking before the warnings or to see the observations posted by our members. Don't get me wrong, all the info in this thread is really appreciated but separating threads may be a better way to access to the information.

[cycloneye]

Hey guys I have been thinking that it may be a good idea if we had another thread for the flood warnings and other types of warnings, and keep this thread for observations, general discussions, official discussion, news, etc. I say this because sometimes there are lots of flood warnings and we have to go back several pages to see what we were talking before the warnings or to see the observations posted by our members. Don't get me wrong, all the info in this thread is really appreciated but separating threads may be a better way to access to the information.

That may be a good idea because this part of the world has been affected by many flood events and you can see all those warnings way back in the thread.This area will be affected by rain events in the next few weeks and that may be an alternative to not flood this great thread of warnings.