ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[StormTracker]

Typhoon_Willie, read HW92's post again!
EDIT: nevermind, you got it!

[tobol.7uno]

A few models want to make the recurve, but most want to move it due west into the Caribbean, GFS is especially keen on this. I think the models are in moderate to good agreement that 98 will enter the Caribbean at some time, just not sure of the latitude.

[AJC3]

Not sure what you are looking HW92. The models from the above graphic show very good agreement and from what I see there is not much evidence for a recurve right now. Could you please provide some thought about why you think there is not a lot of agreement and the system recurving.

Sorry HW92 after rereading your post I think I understand what you are saying. You are saying that there is no model agreement on a definate recurve as of yet. My bad!

Well, it a pretty good bet that this system will NOT recurve before affecting the Leewards and parts of the GA.

However, when it comes to the U.S. it's a completely different story. Look out a little farther. the globals have been very, very consistent in developing a HUGE trough over the eastern U.S. by day 5-6, and it doesnt budge (if anything it drops southward) for several days, resulting in an extended period of strong WSW to W mid and upper level flow over the entirety of the eastern U.S., well southward across the GOMEX, FL and the Bahamas.

[tobol.7uno]

I am guessing that the question in the strength of 98 depends on the dry air out ahead of it...

[tobol.7uno]

Well, it a pretty good bet that this system will NOT recurve before affecting the Leewards and parts of the GA.

However, when it comes to the U.S. it's a completely different story. Look out a little farther. the globals have been very, very consistent in developing a HUGE trough over the eastern U.S. by day 5-6, and it doesnt budge (if anything it drops southward) for several days, resulting in an extended period of strong WSW to W mid and upper level flow over the entirety of the eastern U.S., well southward across the GOMEX, FL and the Bahamas.

Yes the global models are consistent with this, it is the regular fall pattern, cool fronts push across the US and stall out along the east coast extending back into the GOM.

[Hurricanehink]

Gotta love the forecast of a deep trough pulling off the east coast and as far south as the Yucatan. Sounds like zero chance for SE FL to worry about a storm from this disturbance. Or as close to zero as you can get.

The change in daylight is barely perceptible in the subtropics now. We're hungering for that first wave of, not cool air, just less-saturated air. Maybe dropping into the 70s at night-type air. If that comes and turns another storm away, even better.

We still have October to watch: Caribbean stew and recurve too.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Don't forget about Nicholas in 2003. All of the pro mets said there was no chance it would reach Florida, but, after transitioning into an extratropical storm, doing a loop, and merging with another system, it crossed Florida.

[cycloneye]

The latest WINDSAT pass made a few hours ago caught the extreme west side of 98L. If you look closely,there are west winds.

[Florida1118]

It also looks like there are some >35kts winds in there...if upgraded looks like it might go to Ophelia not TD 16.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[abajan]

Latest plots:

[fci]

Not sure what you are looking HW92. The models from the above graphic show very good agreement and from what I see there is not much evidence for a recurve right now. Could you please provide some thought about why you think there is not a lot of agreement and the system recurving.

Sorry HW92 after rereading your post I think I understand what you are saying. You are saying that there is no model agreement on a definate recurve as of yet. My bad!

Well, it a pretty good bet that this system will NOT recurve before affecting the Leewards and parts of the GA.

However, when it comes to the U.S. it's a completely different story. Look out a little farther. the globals have been very, very consistent in developing a HUGE trough over the eastern U.S. by day 5-6, and it doesnt budge (if anything it drops southward) for several days, resulting in an extended period of strong WSW to W mid and upper level flow over the entirety of the eastern U.S., well southward across the GOMEX, FL and the Bahamas.

If this system were to get all the way to the NW Carib, wouldn't it be a concern to be picked up by the trough and move NE?
Or are the odds strong that it never gets that far and anything that follows that scenario would be homegrown IN the NW Carib?

[KWT]

Looks like another threat to the E.Caribbean according to the models.

Still a little early though to rule out a westerly raodrunner at a low latitude intothe Caribbean then eventually arcing up...However to be fair the models are in strong agreement about a powerful upper trough.

[KWT]

Not looking bad at all at the moment, though the models don't seem all that keen at all suggesting maybe only a weak system forms.

[Gustywind]

20/0545 UTC 11.2N 37.7W T1.5/1.5 98L
19/2345 UTC 11.0N 37.4W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Gustywind]

From Rob Lightbown on September 20, 2011, 5:28 am

Invest 98L Located 1500 Miles To The East Of The Windward Islands:
Invest 98L, which is located about 1500 miles to the east of the Windward Islands, continues to become better organized and satellite estimate winds indicate that this system may already be a tropical storm. I suspect that the National Hurricane Center is going to wait to upgrade this low pressure system until we see visible satellite imagery this morning to confirm whether there is a low-level center; so, don’t be surprised to see Invest 98L upgraded to a tropical depression or a tropical storm today.

Invest 98L is tracking to the west and will likely continue tracking westward and it is looking likely that this system will affect Leeward Islands and possibly the Windward Islands starting on Friday and continuing into Saturday. The global and track model guidance continues to insist that this disturbance will weaken and possibly dissipate as it tracks across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean due to a wall of very high shear. So, my thinking is that this disturbance will strengthen into Tropical Storm Ophelia either today or at the very latest early tomorrow and top out at around 50 to 60 mph on Thursday. From there, I think we may see this system weaken to about 40 mph as it tracks towards and through the Leeward Islands on Friday night and Saturday.

After that, the global model guidance point to a strong trough of low pressure to be located over the eastern United States late this weekend into early next week and this trough is expected not to budge. So, I think we will see whatever becomes of Invest 98L get picked up out of the far eastern or northeastern Caribbean and pulled north and northeastward across the open Atlantic very much like Maria was.

For those of you in the Leeward Islands and the the Windward Islands, please be aware that Invest 98L looks to take a little further north track than what was expected yesterday and tropical storm conditions are possible across the northern Windward Islands and the Leeward Islands starting during the day Friday and continuing right into Saturday. The Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico may also be affected by tropical storm conditions on Sunday. Finally, should this system be pulled northward that Bermuda may be affected by tropical storm conditions right around next Wednesday.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR
11N37W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS MAXIMIZED FROM 07N-15N
BETWEEN 34W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 33W-42W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[Nimbus]

The eastern 97L part of the circulation has good convection and is beginning to dominate.
The dry air should limit Ophelia to tropical storm strength for a while but she will probably have a window of opportunity when she gets further west. She is forecast to be so far south that if the trough intensity forecast starts showing a weaker short wave, I wouldn't rule out a Florida or Carolina landfall. Texas is just going to have to wait till winter to get some relief from the heat.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

WTNT21 KNGU 201000
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 37.7W TO 11.3N 40.8W OVER THE
NEXT 24HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME. WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS DISTURBANCE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 25KTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0815Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 037.7W MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
2. A 1008MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 11N37W, OR APPROXIMATELY 1300NM EAST OF WINWARD ISLANDS,
AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS.
DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE AS OF 20/0545Z IS CURRENTLY T1.5/1.5.
WIND SHEAR VALUES OF 10 TO 20 KTS ARE MARGINAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 84 TO 88 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT EXIST IN THE REGION.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING, CANCELLED OR
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY 211000Z.//

[Gustywind]

000
AGXX40 KNHC 200811
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
LOW PRES IN CENTRAL ATLC AT 11N38W EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVE W THROUGH WED POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOW
PRES CENTER REACH TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND MOVE INTO ERN
CARIBBEAN LATE SAT. MODEL GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING ITS WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FRI THEN DIVERGE IN ITS
POLEWARD CURVATURE AND ITS TIMING. ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS
APPROACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAINLY IN ITS NRN SEMICIRCLE SINCE
EARLY WED.


$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

[cycloneye]

70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH