Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Marcocane,thread is up.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=111932&hilit=&p=2195725#p2195725

[Gustywind]

Hey guys I have been thinking that it may be a good idea if we had another thread for the flood warnings and other types of warnings, and keep this thread for observations, general discussions, official discussion, news, etc. I say this because sometimes there are lots of flood warnings and we have to go back several pages to see what we were talking before the warnings or to see the observations posted by our members. Don't get me wrong, all the info in this thread is really appreciated but separating threads may be a better way to access to the information.

That may be a good idea because this part of the world has been affected by many flood events and you can see all those warnings way back in the thread.This area will be affected by rain events in the next few weeks and that may be an alternative to not flood this great thread of warnings.

And the family should expand very nice idea Macrocane!

[Macrocane]

Marcocane,thread is up.

Great! thanks cycloneye.

And the family should expand very nice idea Macrocane!

You're welcome Gusty

[Macrocane]

4.9 Quake kills one and leaves damages in Guatemala

Bad news from Guatemala, an earthquake swarm developed in late July in eastern Guatemala and contnued thorugh this months, today the strongest quake from this swarm occurred, the magnitude was 4.9 according to Guatemala geological survey, 5.8 according to USGS and 5.0 according to the SNET in El Salvador (where some of the quakes have been felt too). The quake killed one person and more than 1000 have been affected, more info here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=111933

[cycloneye]

Good morning. More rain is in tap for PR and VI as the trough lingers around.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
440 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2011

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND
A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MAINTAIN A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS
A RESULT...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS THIS
MORNING DEPICTED TWO LARGE AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONES OF THESE AREAS WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
PRODUCED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE OTHER ONES WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST
SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR PUERTO RICO DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTER ACROSS THE FA
UNTIL AT LEAST TOMORROW. IN FACT...PWAT VALUES GREATER OR NEAR THAN
2.00 INCHES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE BEYOND. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. FORECAST MODELS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN
THIS TYPE OF WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST LATE ON THE WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND THE ECMWF COMPUTER
MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ONLY AS AN OPEN
WAVE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
BCMG SCT BY MID MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTN. ISOLD-SCT LOW LVL
CLDS BTW 020-060K FT MOV SLOWLY W ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THIS
AM...WITH ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND THE USVI...AND OVR
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST S OF STX WESTWARD INTO THE OFFSHORE
CARIBBEAN WATERS S OF PR. PREVAILING VFR CONDS AT TAF SITES TIL
20/12Z...BUT MTN TOP OBSCR PSBL DUE TO LOW CLDS AND ISOLD PASSING
SHRA. AFT 20/16Z CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVR N CENTRAL...W AND
NW SECTIONS OF PR WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA TIL AT LEAST 20/22Z.
THEREFORE TEMPO MVFR PSBL AT VCNTY AND/OR EN ROUTE TO TJBQ...
TJMZ...AND TJSJ. LLVL WNDS ARE MAINLY FM ESE AT 15 KNOTS BLO 15K FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 90 78 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 78 90 80 / 50 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Here is this mornings discussion of 98L by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[underthwx]

NWS SAN JUAN EXCERPT:


LOOKING AHEAD...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE GFS AND THE ECMWF COMPUTER
MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS ONLY AS AN OPEN
WAVE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAY TUNED.

[underthwx]

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 20 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
23/1200Z ON A SYSTEM NEAR 13.5N 54.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[cycloneye]

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 201330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 20 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-112

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
23/1200Z ON A SYSTEM NEAR 13.5N 54.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Now is for Friday morning,the first recon mission.

[underthwx]

SFWMD MODELS 98L:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_98.gif

[Jimsot]

Anyone care to give me odds on my flight (US AIR) arriving and leaving St. Martin on Sunday?

[cycloneye]

Anyone care to give me odds on my flight (US AIR) arriving and leaving St. Martin on Sunday?

I can tell you that by Sunday,whatever this system turns into,will be near the Lesser Antilles. But I can't assure you what track it may take at this time. If it takes a southern track St Maarten will not see the very bad weather,but if otherwise,then bad weather will move over that area. That is why,you have to check what is going on in the next couple of days to see a more clear picture about this.

[Jimsot]

Anyone care to give me odds on my flight (US AIR) arriving and leaving St. Martin on Sunday?

I can tell you that by Sunday,whatever this system turns into,will be near the Lesser Antilles. But I can't assure you what track it may take at this time. If it takes a southern track St Maarten will not see the very bad weather,but if otherwise,then bad weather will move over that area. That is why,you have to check what is going on in the next couple of days to see a more clear picture about this.

If it is going to form I wish it would do so, then maybe we can have some tracking information that will be useful. My 'wish-cast' is for an open wave entering the Caribbean through the windwards.

[cycloneye]

Anyone care to give me odds on my flight (US AIR) arriving and leaving St. Martin on Sunday?

I can tell you that by Sunday,whatever this system turns into,will be near the Lesser Antilles. But I can't assure you what track it may take at this time. If it takes a southern track St Maarten will not see the very bad weather,but if otherwise,then bad weather will move over that area. That is why,you have to check what is going on in the next couple of days to see a more clear picture about this.

If it is going to form I wish it would do so, then maybe we can have some tracking information that will be useful. My 'wish-cast' is for an open wave entering the Caribbean through the windwards.

Yes,if that happens,it will be better to get things cleared.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2011

.UPDATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS HAS PERSISTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THEREFORE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST
WAS MADE IN ORDER TO INCREASE THE POPS ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EVERYTHING ELSE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO.

[underthwx]

NAVTEX Marine Forecast - San Juan, PR


000
FZNT26 KNHC 201534
OFFN05
NAVTEX MARINE FORECAST
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

...PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST AVAILABLE
THROUGH NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER MEANS FOR A MORE DETAILED
FORECAST WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE COASTLINE...

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK TROUGH FROM 22N TO 14N ALONG 80W DRIFTING W
THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES IN EASTERN ATLC FORECAST TO TRACK W WITH
POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT ENTERS
TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE EARLY FRI AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT.

E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS
.THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS E OF 71W.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E OF 67W E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4
FT. W OF 67W E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT.
.THU...E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT N OF 12N.
.FRI...E OF 70W NE TO WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT.
W OF 70W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT.
.SAT...E OF 73W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.
W OF 73W E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 7 FT.

TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
.THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...N OF 13N NE TO E WINDS 15 KT
INCREASING TO 20 KT E PORTION LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT FAR E PORTION LATE TONIGHT. S OF 13N E WINDS
10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W
OF 62W.
.WED NIGHT...N OF 14N E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. S OF 14N
NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS
MOVING INTO FAR E PORTION LATE.
.THU...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS
8 TO 12 FT. S OF 12N NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT BUILD
TO 7 FT N PART. SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 12N.
.FRI...N OF 12N NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
SHIFTING SE OVER E PORTION LATE. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. S OF 12N SE
TO S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN E SWELL.
.SAT...N OF 15N W OF 58W E WINDS 20 TO 30 KT EARLY BECOMING SE
AT 15 KT LATE. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN E SWELL
LATE. ELSEWHERE SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 6 FT LATE.

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES WITH RIDGE ALONG 31N THROUGH SAT AS
INTENSIFYING LOW PRES 1008 MB...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
MOVE THROUGH N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.

SW N ATLANTIC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS
.THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED NIGHT...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
EXCEPT TO 20 KT S OF 23N E OF BAHAMAS. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT.
SCATTERED TSTMS S OF 23N E OF 74W.
.THU...S OF 24N E OF 71W E WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
ELSEWHERE E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT EXCEPT 2 FT
W OF BAHAMAS.
.FRI AND SAT...N OF 27N SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 6 FT IN
NE SWELL. FROM 22N TO 27N E TO SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT
EXCEPT 2 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 22N E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 8

$$


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[underthwx]

ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW(RAINBOW IMAGE):


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on September 19, 2011 in Central America:
-Warmert than normal lows were regisered in El Salvador and Honduras, they were near normal in the rest of the region.
-Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua had cooler than normal highs, Costa Rica had warmer than normal and the rest of the countries had near normal highs.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25°C (77°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 21.7°C (71.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10°C (50°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.5°C (41.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.9°C (55.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 31°C (88°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21°C (70°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 33°C (91°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 26.9°C (80.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 18.1°C (64.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 30°C (86°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.8°C (83.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 32.4°C (90.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Boquete, Panama 21.0°C (69.8°F)

[underthwx]

NEW ATLANTIC DEPRESSION LIKELY SOON!!!
Dr. Rick Knabb, Hurricane Expert, The Weather Channel
Sep 20, 2011 11:48 am ET
Tropics Watch: Daily Map Analysis
- Surface low over the central tropical Atlantic appears likely to become a depression today or Wednesday, with potential to affect the eastern Caribbean as a tropical storm by this weekend
- A couple of systems over the far eastern Atlantic have some potential to eventually lead to a depression, but they pose little to no threat to land areas for at least the next week
- Surface low just south of eastern Mexico could become an eastern Pacific depression today or Wednesday, will stay offshore while moving parallel to the coast, and could have some peripheral effects along the coast
- Western Pacific Typhoon Roke will move over or near much of Japan through Wednesday with potentially damaging winds, waves, and flash floods
ATLANTIC BASIN
* Central tropical Atlantic surface low
- Fairly well-defined circulation with some concentrated shower activity
- Nearly stationary about midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles
- Likely to become a tropical depression today or Wednesday
- Will start moving westward during next couple of days, and could reach the Windward and Leeward Islands very late this week or this weekend, possibly as a tropical storm, although some models forecast the system to turn north before reaching the islands
- Could affect other portions of the northeastern Caribbean this weekend
- Appears unlikely to affect the mainland U.S., but too soon to be 100% certain
* East Atlantic systems
- A separate area of low pressure could be forming just south of the Cape Verde Islands, and some models suggest eventual development from this system is possible as it moves slowly northwestward, but it is no threat to land for at least the next week
- Another tropical wave is expected to emerge from west Africa today, east and southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. Some models indicate it could eventually lead to a depression during the next week, although it appears it would turn north over the east Atlantic rather than heading westward