How is Fabian moving? 275,280,285 290?

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cycloneye
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How is Fabian moving? 275,280,285 290?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:37 pm

I see it moving almost west now at 275 to 280.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sat Aug 30, 2003 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:42 pm

As I just posted on the other thread, I think that they got Fabian as he jogged, and think that the center is still about 16N at 275. Still headed for fishes.
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#3 Postby Stormsfury » Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:51 pm

Ummm...

Appears that Fabian has restructured and after forming a CDO feature, now the eye is forming...probably may move 280 or even possibly due west for a time. The Anticyclone over Fabian is expanding and further strengthening is anticipated.

NHC noted the WNW jog due to the transitioning from banding features to a CDO in the 8:05 discussion tonight.

Right now, it is absolutely too early to tell if Fabian is an EC threat or not.

SF
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:56 pm

Agree SF it is not moving 290 as Lawrence said but maybe he was caught in a wobble at the time he was going to type the advisory.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 30, 2003 8:31 pm

Bumping to get opinions on what track Fabian has now.I see a west motion.
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#6 Postby ColdFront77 » Sat Aug 30, 2003 8:33 pm

I see a westward motion with Hurricane Fabian now as well.

Even wobbles are important to the track of a tropical cyclone. The more wobbles, the longer they last and seeing if they are longer than "true wobbles" are all important to forecast model guidance and untimate path.
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:40 am

Bumping to get opinions about how he is moving at this time.I see it moving west 275-280 at this time 11:40 AM EDT
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#8 Postby chadtm80 » Sun Aug 31, 2003 10:42 am

West for the moment
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#9 Postby Stormsfury » Sun Aug 31, 2003 12:06 pm

Officially, 280º, but pretty much westerly the last two hours.

Yesterday...

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT AUG 30 2003

...FABIAN STRENGTHENS...WINDS REACH 100 MPH...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.6 WEST OR ABOUT 855 MILES
...1375 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

Today

HURRICANE FABIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 31 2003

...FABIAN EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A
DAY OR TWO...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE FABIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 550 MILES...885
KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

About a full 1º north, with a 4.5ºW...

Remember, tropical storms and hurricane do NOT move on a straight path (with exceptions - Andrew for one) ... they wobble just like a top would ... and there are going to be wobbles WNW or NW and wobbles W ...

The general motion has been around 280º (or just north of due west to WNW the past 24 hours).

Still plenty of time to watch and wait.
An NOAA high altitude plane is schedule to investigate Fabian later today.

SF
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