ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[AJC3]

Well, it a pretty good bet that this system will NOT recurve before affecting the Leewards and parts of the GA.

However, when it comes to the U.S. it's a completely different story. Look out a little farther. the globals have been very, very consistent in developing a HUGE trough over the eastern U.S. by day 5-6, and it doesnt budge (if anything it drops southward) for several days, resulting in an extended period of strong WSW to W mid and upper level flow over the entirety of the eastern U.S., well southward across the GOMEX, FL and the Bahamas.

If this system were to get all the way to the NW Carib, wouldn't it be a concern to be picked up by the trough and move NE? Or are the odds strong that it never gets that far and anything that follows that scenario would be homegrown IN the NW Carib?

Correct on all points. According to the more reliable global model forecasts, there's supposed to be nothing left of the western Atlantic ridge the send 98L in whatever form much farther west than parts of the GA, assuming it actually does get into the Caribbean south of PR/DR. It's getting closer and closer to that time where the main threat to the US will be exclusively from a TC that spins up in the western Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAIN FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM IN
THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[AJC3]

Keep in mind, peeps, that when you see a big spread in the BAM suite, as in this case, you can probably count on some pretty serious shear down the road. I think this is why the globals consistently weaken/open up the system in a few days.

[wxman57]

Maybe no upgrade today, according to the latest NHC discussion. But all they have to go on is satellite and a partial ASCAT pass. It does appear to be starting to wrap up now. Still no change in my thinking. Struggling TS threatening/impacting NE Caribbean Sat/Sun then out to sea to the north. No U.S. East Coast threat and no Gulf of Mexico threat. Just too deep a trof across the eastern U.S. to allow for much movement west of 70W.

[dwsqos2]

Uh...wow at the short-term changes with the Euro's handling of 98L.

Then again, 98L appears to have been intialized a bit too strong.

[Jimsot]

Keep in mind, peeps, that when you see a big spread in the BAM suite, as in this case, you can probably count on some pretty serious shear down the road. I think this is why the globals consistently weaken/open up the system in a few days.

I will have to file that away. An open wave into the Caribbean works for me.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has shifted northward, taking a weakening TS just north of the NE Caribbean on Sunday. Pretty close to the path of the Canadian and just a little north of the 12Z GFS. Trend is toward a Maria-like track rather than westward into the Caribbean.

[clfenwi]

18Z best track

AL, 98, 2011092018, , BEST, 0, 120N, 383W, 30, 1007, LO

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

20/1745 UTC 12.3N 38.3W T2.0/2.0 98L
20/1145 UTC 11.7N 36.7W T2.0/2.0 98L

[Caribwxgirl]

I have this spaghetti from SFWMD
http://199.imageshack.us/img199/982/storm98ophelia20sep12z.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ok thanks they seem to be all over the place though...guess they need a center to work with.

[fci]

P.S. Where is everyone? You'd think the hurricane season was over...

I think the continued recurving storms are not interesting to many people and that is the reason for the drop-off in interest. The fact is many of the ameteurs on here are weather enthusiasts and more specifically hurricane enthusiasts and get excited and exhilarated by an approaching storm. Unfortunatley, I have seen members get beat up on here pretty good by other members for so called "-removed-" or people asking them......"what, you want destruction?". I don't think anybody on here wants death and destruction, but if your seeing an image of a storm on satellite far out in the ocean and the models are showing it recurve well out at sea....the interest probably only goes so far for some. It's ok to like storms and to want to experience some wind and rain that comes with storms, but I think people have shyed away a bit because other members have told them it's not ok to feel that way. I am not speaking for everyone and this is just an observation that I have seen with some of the posts this year.

You are probably referring to posts from people like me and I am going to shy away from flaming those who are coming across as people I disagree with. I understand the excitement that comes with a potentially threatening storm and realize that those who are disappointed with the recurve pattern don't really want death and destruction.
I hope that people are shying away from posting because the pattern we are in simply takes storms and turns them away and that is not particularly interesting and not a fear of posting their thoughts on storms.

[rainstorm]

as for 98L, it looks like its drying up a bit.

[stormy70]

I am here and just lurking around a bit. Been a crazy two weeks taking oldest daughter her cross country meets and birthdays.

[wxman57]

I have this spaghetti from SFWMD
http://199.imageshack.us/img199/982/storm98ophelia20sep12z.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Ok thanks they seem to be all over the place though...guess they need a center to work with.

Not really. If you remove the dozen or so GFS ensemble members, the BAM models and the 3-4 extra GFDL iterations in the plot, then you have an image like the one below. Euro and Canadian are now in agreement on a near-miss to the NE Caribbean (Maria-like track). GFS is moving that way, too. It's looking more like this storm could well miss the NE Caribbean (center, at least). And all models with the exception of the Canadian indicate increasing shear and weakening as it nears the Caribbean.

[Jimsot]

Not really. If you remove the dozen or so GFS ensemble members, the BAM models and the 3-4 extra GFDL iterations in the plot, then you have an image like the one below. Euro and Canadian are now in agreement on a near-miss to the NE Caribbean (Maria-like track). GFS is moving that way, too. It's looking more like this storm could well miss the NE Caribbean (center, at least). And all models with the exception of the Canadian indicate increasing shear and weakening as it nears the Caribbean.

I like what you did there. The shear you mention will that cause a storm to have all the convection to the north and east? I guess it depends on the direction of the shear, but a near miss and to have the storm with no winds to the west would be a good thing. Maria passed just to the east of Anguilla and we ate dinner outside. Later that night however she dragged through some rough weather

[wxman57]

Not really. If you remove the dozen or so GFS ensemble members, the BAM models and the 3-4 extra GFDL iterations in the plot, then you have an image like the one below. Euro and Canadian are now in agreement on a near-miss to the NE Caribbean (Maria-like track). GFS is moving that way, too. It's looking more like this storm could well miss the NE Caribbean (center, at least). And all models with the exception of the Canadian indicate increasing shear and weakening as it nears the Caribbean.

I like what you did there. The shear you mention will that cause a storm to have all the convection to the north and east? I guess it depends on the direction of the shear, but a near miss and to have the storm with no winds to the west would be a good thing. Maria passed just to the east of Anguilla and we ate dinner outside. Later that night however she dragged through some rough weather

It's hard to say what the convective pattern would be as it passes over/near the NE Caribbean. It could do just like Maria and some other recent storms - not much impact until after it passes when a band of squalls sets up to the southeast. But it doesn't appear that this storm will hang around for as long as Maria did.

[tobol.7uno]

Anyone have the latest spaghetti models from the more reliable sources?

Latest models as of 2pm EDT or 18z

[tobol.7uno]

GFS Ensemble...

[tobol.7uno]

And intensity forecasts...

[Extratropical94]

Spaghetti runs all over the place and mainly away from the carib, GFS ensemble agreeing on a low lat track. I'd love to see a discussion and a forecast track from NHC right now.