ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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#261 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:40 pm

Based on that ASCAT, once it closes we should go straight to Ophelia.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#262 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:50 pm

ATCF updated the 00z Best Track upping the winds to 35kts,but no renumber yet.

AL, 98, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#263 Postby bella_may » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:00 pm

Will this recurve?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#264 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:03 pm

THIS EXTREMELY APPLYS TO THE BELOW IMAGE. The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#265 Postby tobol.7uno » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:05 pm

bella_may wrote:Will this recurve?

It should, but there is no solid evidence of it yet. Keep watching.
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#266 Postby islandguy246 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:16 pm

There we go...

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,
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#267 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:17 pm

islandguy246 wrote:There we go...

AL, 16, 2011092100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 396W, 35, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 120, 1012, 175, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, OPHELIA, M,


BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al982011_al162011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109210206
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
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#268 Postby Kay » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:18 pm

Hi guys, I am a long time lurker and have finally decided to post. I've learnt an incredible amount from the site, thank you. And I pbelieve now I have the honor of being the first to say we have Ophelia!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#269 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:20 pm

Hello Ophelia

Extraofficial that is
Last edited by HurricaneMaster_PR on Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#270 Postby islandguy246 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:21 pm

Will be interesting to see the NHC track and discussion...
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#271 Postby Kay » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:24 pm

I'm not buying a turn before the Leewards, perhaps more like 70W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#272 Postby OURAGAN » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:30 pm

SIXTEEN, 35KTS, AT NRL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#273 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:35 pm

OURAGAN wrote:SIXTEEN, 35KTS, AT NRL


Won't be TD16. It will be TS Ophelia.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

#274 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:43 pm

Its Official : We have TS Ophelia!
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#275 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:46 pm

NHC track grazes the NE Caribbean, very close to GFS/Euro/Canadian/UK. Just a bit right of Maria's. No problem with that. Looks good to me. Max speed 45 kts matches guidance. Looks OK too.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#276 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:NHC track grazes the NE Caribbean, very close to GFS/Euro/Canadian/UK. Just a bit right of Maria's. No problem with that. Looks good to me. Max speed 45 kts matches guidance. Looks OK too.


Intensity forecast is probably quite uncertain though.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#277 Postby HurrMark » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:49 pm

Interesting note...this marks the ninth time since 1995 that we hit the 'O' storm...and we never hit 'O' before that year.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#278 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:50 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:NHC track grazes the NE Caribbean, very close to GFS/Euro/Canadian/UK. Just a bit right of Maria's. No problem with that. Looks good to me. Max speed 45 kts matches guidance. Looks OK too.


Intensity forecast is probably quite uncertain though.


Yeah, it often is uncertain. In this case, all we have to go by is the various predictions of shear increasing to 20-25 kts as it nears the NE Caribbean. Can't forecast much intensification in that kind of a predicted environment.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#279 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:54 pm

Once again the NE Caribbean is in the track of systems in 2011.

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#280 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Sep 20, 2011 9:57 pm

Greetings again, Ophelia! Please don't be a pest like your late sister, and go away QUICKLY! That is all...
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