ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[floridasun78]

Intensity, GFDx really went up on this run...
http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/126/ ... tensit.png

put nhc say highest it will go 50mph

[dwsqos2]

GFS may be trending stronger again, and weaker with the Bermuda high. Actually, that's probably why it's trending stronger, as with a weaker Bermuda high low-level wind velocity would be more similar to upper-level wind velocity (less shear obviously).

[rainstorm]

pattern seems set in stone. LLC has ejected from the convection.

[wxman57]

Visible imagery puts the center a good 30 miles north of the NHC estimate overnight, near 13.1N/42.8W. Center is exposed west of the convection, a sign of increasing westerly shear.

[sandyb]

Greetings again, Ophelia! Please don't be a pest like your late sister, and go away QUICKLY! That is all...

i remember the last ophelia we got her years ago but was just a little wind and some rain

[clfenwi]

SAB's position estimate;exposed center makes things fairly easy.

21/1145 UTC 13.3N 42.9W T2.5/2.5 OPHELIA

[clfenwi]

06Z GFDL shifts right but remains at the high end of intensity guidance. The HWRF, on the other hand, pretty much dissolves the storm by day 5, well east of the islands.

GFDL wind swath

[Aric Dunn]

I would not be surprised if we see some south of due west motion today and tonight as the ridging is building quite strong right now.

[wxman57]

Ophelia is being pounded by westerly wind shear. The exposed low-level center is tracking nearly due west, or even a tad south of west. Shear isn't expected to let up over the coming days, so Ophelia should continue to struggle.

[Jimsot]

Is there a chance the shear will be strong enough to cause the storm to become an open wave?

[wxman57]

Is there a chance the shear will be strong enough to cause the storm to become an open wave?

It sure could be strong enough. But these little LLC swirls can be quite tenacious, as we're seeing with 99L.

[Extratropical94]

...OPHELIA BECOMES STRONGER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 43.6W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

[caribepr]

I would be real surprised if this storm didn't recurve like the rest have this season.

Not sure what you mean by that, sorry?

This storm will most likely turn north and miss the CONUS to the east.

Yes, thank you, I understand the first part of the sentence, what recurve means...it was the second part I was wondering about, 'like the rest have this season', seems a few thousand might beg to differ on that one. We'll keep watching and see what happens with Ophelia, she's got a good way to go.

[wxman57]

Certainly isn't strengthening this morning. That one ship report may well have been a peak wind not a 1-min sustained wind. In any case, it's weakening now. Looks like a Maria clone. It may struggle to maintain an LLC as it passes the NE Caribbean this weekend.

[tobol.7uno]

Spaghetti models really picking up on the recurve this morning... Good news!

[tobol.7uno]

GFS Ensemble still does not want to recurve. Wonder why...

[tobol.7uno]

Based on this Ophelia should not get any stronger.

[tobol.7uno]

Ophelia's low level center is almost completely exposed now. Shear is killing her.

[tobol.7uno]

Another look...

[rainstorm]

once ophelia escapes the deep tropics it may have some chance, if anything remains.