Florida Weather

[jdray]

NE Florida is still getting pummeled by rain.

Friday night, 6-12 inches of rain fell at Jacksonville Beach and areas.
http://www.news4jax.com/news/29216811/detail.html
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather- ... 2011-09-17

Back under a flood warning:

000
FXUS62 KJAX 190846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2011

...LOCAL NOR`EASTER CONTINUING TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST...

...WET PATTERN FOR THIS WEEK...

I live inland enough that I got a few light showers and that was it. Maybe 1/2".

[gsytch]

Sunday evening we received some rain, nearly 1/2" over an hour but NO summer downpour. Its been kinda cloudy this week with thunder heard, but nothing here on the west coast. They are saying a high chance of rain Thur thru Sun...I'll wait and see. After so much rain in August (16"+) and 7" the first week of Sept, the drying was welcomed but a bit now would be nice before the dry fall sets in!

[jdray]

We have had a front basically on top of us for a few days, and it wont clear up till monday or tuesday. Heavy showers daily remain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
241 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2011

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION IN
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
TIMES. STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 10 MPH
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FADE TONIGHT AFTER SUNSET BUT NOT
AS MUCH AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS EXPECT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO MOVE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND
HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FRIDAY...BULK OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH S/SW STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST GOMEX AND
THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AGAIN MAINLY FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAX TEMPS TO REACH TO THE MID/UPPER 80S
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STILL POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...COLD FRONT OVER THE SERN U.S. SAGS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND STALLS OVER NE FL AND THE BULK OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED SLIGHT NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SHOULD STILL SUPPORT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NE FL WHILE ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
SCATTERED ACROSS SE GA. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
80S UNDER LIMITED AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

MONDAY...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FOR ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THERE WHILE DRIER
AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIMIT SE GA TO ONLY ISOLD
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

TUE/WED/THU...LONG-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP ON HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION AS DRY SLOT FROM UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. ROTATES THROUGH THE SERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. LATEST GFS
ENSEMBLE STILL SUPPORTS LEAVING ENOUGH MOISTURE BEHIND ALONG OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWER/TSTM EACH DAY
MAINLY ACROSS NE FL AND THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW-MODERATE AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO LEVELS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S OVER
INLAND AREAS.

[NDG]

Today proved that the rainy season is still active in FL.
Active afternoon activity this weekend through at least mid next week, take all you can get with the forecast that we will have a drier than average winter, though maybe not as dry as points to our west.

[gsytch]

NOTHING here. Not a drop. The last rains were Wed, and it was an hour of a moderate rain for 1/2"...not a summer deluge. In fact, Fri and Sat were almost cloudless. Barely a cloud. Humid, but no clouds just sun. Yesterday had some breeze in the PM for an hour or two. There was some lightning in the distance at night, east, earlier in the week. For me, the rainy season is over. We have had less than an inch since Sept 8th.
Perhaps some other parts are getting rain, but not here in W Pasco.

[psyclone]

a two inch dumping yesterday followed by another 3+ inches today makes september yet another month with well over a foot of rain. wow has it been a wet year here.

[gsytch]

Less than 1/4" total since Wed. That is it. Heard it. Now, after work I will have to water it has been so dry. Can you believe being what, 15 mi apart and yet such a difference in rainfall?

[psyclone]

that's crazy but it is the feast or famine nature of convective rainfall. it is just nasty, waterlogged wet here. we need some drying time but it is nice to have the rainy season end with a bang as pretty soon we probably won't be able to buy a drop of rain. last year not a drop of rain fell here in the month of october. the spigot is about to shut off (if it hasn't already).

[gsytch]

Well, it shut off here over a week ago - all of 20 mins north of you! Now, let the heat and humidity shut off. I am ready for some 80'sF with 65f dewpoints! or lower.............................

[gsytch]

I just saw a flood warning for the creek in central/west pasco. The Worthington CReek is at flood stage. After dinner, I have to get the hose out because I am seeing some wilting in the yard and in pots. I just wanted one more good downpour!

[jdray]

Cold front coming, down to 50F saturday, will be a nice weekend with temps in the mid 70s.

[psyclone]

Cold front coming, down to 50F saturday, will be a nice weekend with temps in the mid 70s.

I'm looking forward to a vigorous bike ride without the threat of heatstroke or lightningstorms. wonderful weather is on the way.

[AdamFirst]

Interesting weather pattern coming up starting on Wednesday night-Thursday lasting through the weekend...it's going to be gray, windy and wet.

I'd post the Melbourne AFD but I'm on my phone right now.

[jdray]

Interesting weather pattern coming up starting on Wednesday night-Thursday lasting through the weekend...it's going to be gray, windy and wet.

I'd post the Melbourne AFD but I'm on my phone right now.

NWS JAX is hinting on the same:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
346 AM EDT TUE OCT 4 2011

.SHORT TERM...AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH NEAR RECORD
LOWS ACROSS THE INTERIOR...CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER IS FORECAST
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 80 AND 85
DEGREES.

A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL DEPART OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO ADVANCE EAST. LOCALLY...
INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AND THIS FLOW REGIME WILL
BRING A SLOW INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES.

THURSDAY...THE PLACEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS WILL
ADVANCE INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING. HAVE INCLUDED LOW-END POPS FOR
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 301...EXCEPT CHANCE POPS FOR
SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASING
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY A DEEP AND STRONG EASTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED. HAVE CAPPED POPS JUST BELOW LIKELY CATEGORY...AS IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS WILL ESTABLISH.

NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPIN UP OVER THE BAHAMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS FEATURE ARE UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH HAVE DISCOUNTED THE DGEX
SOLN WHICH BRINGS A VIGOROUS LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
NONETHELESS... RESIDENTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SHOULD MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS.

[AdamFirst]

I made that post before realizing there could be tropical trouble down the line

Gusty day outside. Constant 15-20 MPH sustained with higher gusts. Going to be like this for the forseeable future.

[AdamFirst]

Bit of training action going on here.

Impact Weather Update and Graphicast for East Central Florida

Issued by the National Weather Service Melbourne, FL

Friday, October 07, 2011

Posted at 12:19 AM

Local heavy rain along Treasure Coast
Isolated to scattered showers will move west at 20 to 25 mph over the Atlantic waters. The activity should be most widespread from Cape Canaveral southward to the Treasure Coast. Heavy downpours will occur especially from south Brevard to around Stuart. Local rainfall amounts of one or two inches will occur where showers repeat across the same area. Isolated lightning strikes and gusty winds 30 to 35 mph can also be expected.

[AdamFirst]

And the rain has just kept falling and falling and falling

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
729 AM EDT FRI OCT 7 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EASTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WALTON...FORT PIERCE INLET...WHITE
CITY...SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR PLANT...PORT SAINT LUCIE...INDRIO...FORT
PIERCE...

* UNTIL 930 AM EDT.

* AT 726 AM EDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED THAT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE BETWEEN THREE AND FOUR INCHES AROUND FORT
PIERCE AND PORT SAINT LUCIE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FROM THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS MOVE ASHORE.

Apparently there's a bit of convergence sitting right on top of the Treasure Coast since the rain continues to develop off the coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

I've recorded over 5 inches since 6:00PM yesterday in both of my rain gauges in Fort Pierce. Steady training over the Treasure Coast area, in particular St. Lucie County.

SFT

[gsytch]

A few squalls moved through here on the Gulf Coast side yesterday. First rain in well over a week, but still nothing to write home about. Total was about 1/4" due to the fast speed of the squalls. That means Oct total rainfall is .26" and we missed most of the rains the last two weeks of Sept. We could use it over here. Send some! The rain cooled air is really nice, though.

[gsytch]

...and still nothing has fallen today. The radar shows the large area of rains east FL down to Miami, yet it is like a wall as it approaches west, it gradually dies out. The last 3 weeks have been so dry, and the winds today have gusted to 45mph. Weird weather!