EPAC: HILARY - Remnants
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- brunota2003
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Convection has waned some, Dvorak IR not as impressive as it was earlier as the light greys have shrunk and the darker greys have disappeared (those both being inside the white). However, to counteract that, the eye has become much better defined. I think holding at 125 knots is a good call at this time.
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- Yellow Evan
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Dvorak does poorly with pinhole eyes though. I would have it at 135 kt personally with some uncertainty. Around 0900Z it might have been a Cat 5 IMO.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Yellow Evan
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane
Not very often you have a cat 4 this close to land with no recon.
Is there a reason for no recon? Just curious as to what the theory would be for not having any. Is it due to the fact that many of the models have her continuing out into the open Pacific?
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- tobol.7uno
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane
Almost all models show a recurve back towards land now. Not a good thing!
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- tobol.7uno
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane
Large spread in the intensity plots...
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane
Is it weakening? There were gray (cooler) cloud tops earlier.
Never mind, they're coming back.
Last edited by bg1 on Fri Sep 23, 2011 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- tobol.7uno
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane
Impressive Hurricane!
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Wow Hilary is really something!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institutions or storm2k.org. For official information refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kingarabian
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- Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane
Grays are starting to come back.
[url]http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/843/bdln.jpg/][/url]
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- UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 SEP 2011 Time : 184500 UTC
Lat : 16:18:27 N Lon : 102:52:36 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 939.8mb/127.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km
Center Temp : +7.3C Cloud Region Temp : -66.7C
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