ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Still a nearly naked low level circulation rolling west south of track. If the shear forecast continues to be hostile they will probably discontinue updates like they did with 99L.

[wxman57]

There is certainly no evidence of TS winds in the observations from the buoys west and east of Ophelia. Buoy 50nm west of the center has 25 kts now. Buoy to the east has not reported any TS winds since that area of squalls passed through 24 hours ago.

[Jimsot]

Is that time approaching?

[wxman57]

http://www.motifake.com/image/demotivational-poster/1108/hes-dead-jim-startrek-spock-kirk-mccoy-demotivational-posters-1314278104.jpg

Is that time approaching?

Definitely wouldn't declare it dead. Maria was if far worse shape for the two days as it passed the NE Caribbean and it got its act together and became a hurricane.

Looks like the ASCAT satellite missed the whole region this morning. Ascending pass graphic is blank. Buoys indicate peak winds around 25-30 kts now, and certainly not 200nm from the center to the NE.

[wx4me]

Wow she definitely doesn’t look good…. Circulation weak, convection lacking big time, and butt loads of dry air out in front of her..

[wxman57]

NHC will keep it at 35 kts on this advisory. ASCAT pass missed the storm completely. Buoy data doesn't support 35 kts, but there isn't a buoy NE of the center where there is a very slight chance there could be a small pocket of TS winds.

[Hurricanehink]

Convection is redeveloping finally. It looks more like a tropical cyclone than it had for 24 hours, and just in time for recon.

[tobol.7uno]

Models still want her moving Northwest...

[tobol.7uno]

Intensity forecasts want to hold a depression or weak TS...

[tobol.7uno]

Convection is redeveloping finally. It looks more like a tropical cyclone than it had for 24 hours, and just in time for recon.

Yes a bit of convection over the center this afternoon...

[wxman57]

The plane is finding evidence (SFMR) of winds 45-50 kts in the big area of squalls north of 15N near 53W. It could be that the center is reforming up there, as the buoy to the south still has a NNW wind. The burst of squalls will probably not last, and the winds will drop in 3-5 hours again. Shear should continue. If the plane had been in there 4-5 hours ago it would have had a hard time finding TS winds.

[wxman57]

Center appears to have reformed north near 15.4N/53.2W, though the plane had a bit of difficulty pinpointing it.

[Extratropical94]

I think it's legit to call this system a fail because we have recon going and the only notes about the mission on this whole board are two comments by wxman57. We don't even have a recon thread here, let alone someone to post the obs.

[craptacular]

VDM:

URNT12 KNHC 231813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 23/17:48:10Z
B. 15 deg 23 min N
053 deg 09 min W
C. NA
D. 54 kt
E. 352 deg 23 nm
F. 060 deg 60 kt
G. 359 deg 20 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 22 C / 305 m
J. 24 C / 324 m
K. 21 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 0 nm
P. AF303 0116A OPHELIA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 60 KT N QUAD 17:30:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 034 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

[CrazyC83]

Too busy to do a Recon thread right now. I think most of the posters are at work or school and others have little interest. Intensity probably 55 kt based on that information.

[wxman57]

18Z model guidance just issued initialized at 45 kts. Probably realistic, as I think those SFMR values are not accurate. We keep seeing SFMR readings well above FL winds in these storms. Makes me skeptical.

[ozonepete]

Too busy to do a Recon thread right now. I think most of the posters are at work or school and others have little interest. Intensity probably 55 kt based on that information.

And it's not threatening land and it looked like it was on a respirator before the new convective burst as well. I'm still following it and I will until it's gone. Who knows? This could even become a hurricane down the road like Maria so it's worth looking in on once in a while. There's always something to learn from just about any tropical cyclone.

[Extratropical94]

Had to laugh while looking at one of our German weather pages.
They usually do short summaries or updates on tropical cyclones all over the world. Sounding like wannabes, they put the headlines "New tropical storm forming in the Caribbean" and "TS Ophelia aiming at Florida, now 3200 km ESE of Miami" on their Ophelia updates. Seriously, where the hell is the Carib and where the hell is Ophelia?!

[craptacular]

Recon showed some unflagged SFMR values of 59-61 kts as they were approaching the center from the NE, in that convection.

[craptacular]

Newest VDM: 1001 mb, 62 kts from SFMR

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 20:26Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 16L in 2011
Storm Name: Ophelia (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 08
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 19:51:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 15°21'N 53°28'W (15.35N 53.4667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 440 miles (709 km) to the ENE (69°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 704m (2,310ft) at 925mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the N (358°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 38° at 59kts (From the NE at ~ 67.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the NNW (334°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 768m (2,520ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 28°C (82°F) at a pressure alt. of 757m (2,484ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 925mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 60kts (~ 69.0mph) in the north quadrant at 17:30:20Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb