ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

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Hylian Auree
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#421 Postby Hylian Auree » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:00 pm

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT WOBBLES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#422 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:03 pm

5 PM Track.

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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#423 Postby Fego » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:18 pm

Oh well, she is making her moves doesn't matter what we and the NHC say.
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#424 Postby fci » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:28 pm



Seems like a cut and paste for prior storms.
Are we sure that they are actually working and not just using old maps and tracks and changing the name and date of the storm?
:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re:

#425 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 4:38 pm

Hylian Auree wrote:TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT WOBBLES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


What a weird storm in a weird season. One of the few storms we expect to weaken and it strengthens.
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Re: Re:

#426 Postby westwind » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:23 pm

What a weird storm in a weird season. One of the few storms we expect to weaken and it strengthens

Just a thought, could Ophilia be strengthening faster than forecast becouse the stronger shear to the north of the cyclone has maintained an outflow channel to the storms north west allthough outflow elsewere is non existent.
It also occored to me that this outflow channel is oriented in the correct direction to possibly make the upper level pattern over Ophilia more anti cyclonic (more upper divergence).

Can someone more knowlageable than me tell me if this is possible or am I talking nonsense

Disclamer perticularly applies to this post as I probably don't know what I am talking about :eek:
Edit: to rectify quote
Last edited by westwind on Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#427 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:36 pm

23/1745 UTC 15.1N 52.9W T2.0/2.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic
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ATL: OPHELIA - recon

#428 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:39 pm

AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 12 20110923
230830 1659N 05545W 9245 00793 0129 +190 +188 059034 034 028 002 03
230900 1658N 05544W 9255 00783 0127 +191 +188 063034 035 029 001 00
230930 1657N 05542W 9248 00789 0126 +192 +187 063034 035 029 003 03
231000 1656N 05541W 9246 00789 0124 +195 +187 064035 036 030 001 00
231030 1655N 05540W 9253 00783 0124 +195 +187 061036 037 025 005 03
231100 1654N 05539W 9251 00784 0124 +194 +187 059035 035 028 002 00
231130 1653N 05538W 9242 00795 0127 +191 +187 053033 035 030 003 00
231200 1651N 05537W 9249 00788 0126 +194 +186 056033 034 032 002 00
231230 1650N 05536W 9248 00788 0125 +192 +185 055032 033 033 001 03
231300 1649N 05535W 9249 00786 0125 +192 +185 054032 033 031 001 00
231330 1648N 05534W 9249 00786 0124 +193 +185 054033 033 032 000 03
231400 1647N 05532W 9248 00786 0124 +193 +185 053035 036 032 000 00
231430 1645N 05531W 9253 00782 0123 +194 +185 055034 035 032 003 00
231500 1644N 05530W 9248 00786 0123 +194 +185 056035 035 033 001 00
231530 1643N 05529W 9250 00785 0124 +194 +185 055034 034 030 003 03
231600 1642N 05528W 9249 00785 0124 +194 +185 055033 034 032 002 00
231630 1641N 05527W 9250 00784 0124 +191 +186 049032 033 033 001 03
231700 1640N 05526W 9251 00784 0124 +190 +185 051031 032 033 004 00
231730 1638N 05524W 9254 00779 0121 +194 +183 054035 036 032 002 00
231800 1637N 05523W 9249 00783 0120 +193 +183 057036 037 031 002 00


000
URNT15 KNHC 232328
AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 13 20110923
231830 1636N 05522W 9251 00778 0119 +192 +182 058037 038 033 001 00
231900 1635N 05521W 9247 00784 0119 +193 +181 058037 037 031 003 00
231930 1634N 05520W 9248 00782 0118 +194 +180 061036 036 032 001 00
232000 1633N 05519W 9248 00780 0116 +200 +179 060033 034 030 004 00
232030 1631N 05518W 9255 00774 0116 +198 +179 057033 034 029 001 03
232100 1630N 05517W 9246 00783 0116 +196 +180 056035 035 030 004 03
232130 1629N 05515W 9250 00778 0115 +198 +181 060034 034 033 002 00
232200 1628N 05514W 9251 00777 0115 +196 +182 060033 033 033 003 00
232230 1627N 05513W 9247 00780 0113 +200 +182 058031 032 031 002 00
232300 1626N 05512W 9249 00778 0113 +199 +183 058032 033 031 003 00
232330 1624N 05511W 9248 00779 0113 +202 +184 060032 033 030 002 00
232400 1623N 05510W 9248 00779 0113 +202 +185 061033 034 032 002 00
232430 1622N 05509W 9250 00778 0113 +200 +186 061033 034 031 001 00
232500 1621N 05507W 9245 00783 0113 +199 +187 060032 033 031 003 00
232530 1620N 05506W 9249 00779 0115 +197 +187 055031 032 031 002 00
232600 1618N 05505W 9253 00782 0120 +198 +188 056031 032 030 003 00
232630 1617N 05504W 9251 00782 0120 +200 +188 057031 032 030 003 00
232700 1616N 05503W 9250 00782 0120 +200 +188 056032 032 030 002 00
232730 1615N 05502W 9250 00781 0119 +199 +188 056032 032 030 001 00
232800 1614N 05500W 9248 00785 0120 +199 +188 054033 034 030 003 00

Flying NW-SE.
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#429 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:41 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 232338
AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 14 20110923
232830 1612N 05459W 9246 00787 0119 +199 +188 053033 033 030 002 00
232900 1611N 05458W 9251 00783 0119 +200 +188 054033 033 029 001 00
232930 1610N 05457W 9246 00786 0118 +198 +188 049034 034 030 002 00
233000 1609N 05456W 9251 00781 0118 +200 +188 051035 036 031 001 00
233030 1607N 05455W 9248 00784 0117 +200 +188 051035 036 029 002 03
233100 1606N 05453W 9252 00779 0117 +200 +188 049035 036 029 004 00
233130 1605N 05452W 9248 00781 0117 +200 +188 048034 034 028 004 00
233200 1604N 05451W 9250 00780 0115 +203 +189 051033 034 031 001 00
233230 1602N 05450W 9250 00780 0114 +202 +189 049033 034 030 002 00
233300 1601N 05449W 9250 00781 0114 +204 +189 050032 032 031 001 00
233330 1600N 05447W 9244 00783 0112 +206 +190 048030 031 032 001 00
233400 1559N 05446W 9250 00778 0109 +210 +191 049028 029 032 001 00
233430 1558N 05445W 9250 00775 0108 +211 +191 051027 028 030 002 00
233500 1556N 05444W 9243 00784 0107 +214 +193 055024 027 033 002 00
233530 1555N 05443W 9250 00776 0104 +218 +194 053026 028 032 002 00
233600 1554N 05441W 9250 00775 0106 +209 +195 046031 032 031 001 00
233630 1553N 05440W 9249 00775 0106 +210 +196 046032 033 031 001 00
233700 1551N 05439W 9249 00774 0105 +212 +195 046030 031 029 003 00
233730 1550N 05438W 9250 00774 0103 +217 +195 047028 029 030 001 03
233800 1549N 05437W 9249 00774 0103 +214 +195 045028 029 029 002 00
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#430 Postby Gustywind » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:50 pm

Loop of TS Ophelia...


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#431 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 6:52 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 232348
AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 15 20110923
233830 1547N 05436W 9249 00774 0104 +209 +196 050026 027 029 001 00
233900 1546N 05434W 9250 00771 0103 +211 +196 052024 024 029 000 00
233930 1545N 05433W 9248 00773 0102 +210 +197 050024 024 030 001 00
234000 1544N 05432W 9250 00770 0100 +215 +197 049022 022 027 004 00
234030 1542N 05431W 9247 00772 0100 +211 +197 048022 022 029 002 00
234100 1541N 05430W 9249 00771 0099 +216 +197 050021 022 028 001 03
234130 1540N 05428W 9251 00767 0096 +220 +197 046018 019 028 003 00
234200 1539N 05427W 9247 00772 0095 +223 +198 037015 017 028 005 00
234230 1537N 05426W 9250 00767 0093 +227 +198 029013 014 031 001 03
234300 1536N 05424W 9247 00771 0092 +231 +199 018011 013 028 005 03
234330 1536N 05423W 9248 00769 0091 +235 +201 007009 011 024 003 03
234400 1536N 05421W 9253 00765 0091 +231 +202 359009 010 027 002 00
234430 1536N 05419W 9245 00771 0092 +224 +204 000008 009 029 002 00
234500 1536N 05417W 9254 00761 0093 +218 +205 032007 008 022 003 03
234530 1535N 05416W 9248 00765 0092 +215 +205 030009 009 018 003 03
234600 1535N 05414W 9242 00769 0090 +215 +203 014009 009 020 002 03
234630 1534N 05412W 9248 00763 0090 +212 +202 007009 009 015 003 03
234700 1534N 05411W 9248 00763 0089 +213 +201 350007 008 014 003 00
234730 1533N 05409W 9244 00764 0087 +211 +200 351009 010 018 003 03
234800 1533N 05407W 9252 00750 0082 +215 +199 356009 010 014 004 03
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#432 Postby MGC » Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:01 pm

Looks like Recon might have gotten to Lady O right as a burst of convection developed near the circulation center. The convection has since been displaced by SW shear leaving Lady O naked. Unless another burst of convection developes, I would think the TS will weaken overnight....MGC
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#433 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:07 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 232358
AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 16 20110923
234830 1534N 05406W 9252 00748 0077 +215 +198 349009 010 015 004 00
234900 1534N 05404W 9247 00751 0073 +216 +197 328007 008 017 002 03
234930 1534N 05402W 9251 00742 0068 +219 +196 327007 008 013 004 00
235000 1535N 05401W 9252 00736 0060 +222 +197 329003 006 015 002 00
235030 1535N 05359W 9248 00739 0050 +250 +197 193006 008 011 002 03
235100 1535N 05357W 9244 00739 0045 +269 +199 198013 016 018 002 03
235130 1534N 05356W 9247 00738 0051 +251 +203 205021 023 028 003 00
235200 1532N 05355W 9254 00739 0065 +222 +208 217029 030 029 004 00
235230 1531N 05354W 9248 00748 0071 +217 +210 219031 032 032 002 03
235300 1530N 05353W 9248 00752 0076 +215 +209 212033 034 031 003 00
235330 1529N 05352W 9248 00755 0077 +222 +207 208032 033 028 003 00
235400 1528N 05351W 9251 00756 0082 +219 +204 212032 033 028 003 00
235430 1527N 05349W 9251 00757 0087 +211 +203 216033 033 033 003 00
235500 1526N 05348W 9246 00764 0088 +214 +201 213034 035 031 004 03
235530 1526N 05348W 9246 00764 0091 +213 +199 208033 033 027 002 00
235600 1523N 05346W 9249 00765 0093 +210 +198 205033 034 027 002 00
235630 1522N 05345W 9252 00762 0095 +208 +197 207035 036 025 003 00
235700 1521N 05344W 9245 00770 0095 +210 +195 205036 037 025 002 00
235730 1520N 05343W 9252 00765 0094 +218 +194 206036 036 025 003 03
235800 1519N 05341W 9247 00771 0096 +216 +193 212035 035 023 001 00

Center around 15.6N 54.0W with 1005 hPa.
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#434 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:12 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 240008
AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 17 20110923
235830 1518N 05340W 9250 00770 0098 +215 +193 217037 037 024 002 03
235900 1516N 05339W 9248 00770 0098 +213 +194 220037 037 021 003 00
235930 1515N 05338W 9254 00764 0097 +212 +194 223031 034 027 001 00
000000 1514N 05337W 9249 00770 0095 +219 +195 221033 034 026 004 00
000030 1513N 05335W 9245 00770 0092 +226 +195 223032 033 027 001 00
000100 1512N 05334W 9249 00767 0088 +237 +195 224033 033 028 002 00
000130 1510N 05333W 9245 00771 0087 +240 +196 224033 033 026 004 00
000200 1509N 05332W 9249 00765 0085 +244 +198 226032 032 027 003 00
000230 1508N 05331W 9250 00767 0088 +241 +201 223032 032 024 003 00
000300 1507N 05329W 9248 00772 0094 +232 +203 224033 034 026 001 00
000330 1506N 05328W 9250 00771 0097 +229 +204 224032 032 021 004 00
000400 1504N 05327W 9248 00779 0104 +214 +204 217031 031 023 001 00
000430 1503N 05326W 9249 00775 0106 +209 +203 217031 032 022 004 03
000500 1502N 05325W 9250 00777 0107 +211 +201 220030 031 023 001 00
000530 1501N 05324W 9246 00782 0110 +205 +199 218027 027 022 003 00
000600 1500N 05322W 9250 00778 0111 +207 +196 219026 026 023 002 00
000630 1459N 05321W 9254 00775 0112 +205 +194 218027 027 022 002 00
000700 1457N 05320W 9244 00785 0112 +209 +193 218028 028 023 001 00
000730 1456N 05319W 9253 00775 0111 +209 +191 218028 028 024 003 00
000800 1455N 05318W 9250 00778 0113 +206 +190 218027 027 026 001 00
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#435 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:12 pm

000
URNT12 KNHC 240000
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 23/23:50:20Z
B. 15 deg 35 min N
054 deg 00 min W
C. 925 mb 737 m
D. 34 kt
E. 306 deg 89 nm
F. 058 deg 38 kt
G. 307 deg 100 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 19 C / 764 m
J. 27 C / 761 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0216A OPHELIA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NW QUAD 23:18:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;
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#436 Postby HenkL » Fri Sep 23, 2011 7:31 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 240025
AF304 0216A OPHELIA HDOB 18 20110924
000830 1454N 05317W 9253 00777 0112 +210 +190 211026 026 027 000 00
000900 1453N 05315W 9243 00786 0111 +214 +189 214026 026 026 002 00
000930 1452N 05314W 9252 00779 0112 +214 +189 212026 027 027 002 00
001000 1450N 05313W 9245 00784 0109 +220 +189 213023 024 026 002 00
001030 1449N 05312W 9249 00782 0110 +220 +189 217026 029 023 003 00
001100 1448N 05311W 9255 00778 0111 +222 +189 211030 031 020 002 00
001130 1447N 05310W 9244 00788 0109 +228 +190 211029 030 021 001 03
001200 1446N 05309W 9248 00784 0107 +232 +191 210030 031 023 002 00
001230 1445N 05307W 9248 00784 0107 +231 +193 207029 030 027 001 00
001300 1444N 05306W 9248 00781 0106 +231 +195 203030 030 027 002 00
001330 1442N 05305W 9252 00778 0104 +236 +196 202028 029 031 003 00
001400 1441N 05304W 9249 00781 0105 +231 +197 198031 031 029 003 00
001430 1440N 05303W 9250 00778 0107 +225 +198 198030 030 027 002 00
001500 1439N 05302W 9253 00778 0102 +241 +198 202028 029 032 000 03
001530 1438N 05301W 9250 00782 0111 +223 +198 198026 027 029 001 00
001600 1437N 05300W 9241 00794 0118 +205 +198 200026 026 017 002 00
001630 1436N 05258W 9251 00784 0117 +210 +197 195026 027 014 004 00
001700 1435N 05257W 9248 00787 0116 +212 +194 193027 028 019 001 00
001730 1433N 05256W 9248 00784 0113 +217 +192 191029 030 021 001 00
001800 1432N 05255W 9249 00782 0111 +218 +190 190030 031 020 001 00


Last one for me.
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#437 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 23, 2011 8:19 pm

AL, 16, 2011092400, , BEST, 0, 156N, 540W, 45, 1003, TS,
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#438 Postby tobol.7uno » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:00 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - Models

#439 Postby tobol.7uno » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:01 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: OPHELIA - recon

#440 Postby tobol.7uno » Fri Sep 23, 2011 9:10 pm

Image
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