SE Bahamas (Is Invest 91L)

[westwind]

looks to be organising quite rapidly though it could be related to the MLC not an LLC. The vorticity should have reached to the surface or at least close to the surface. assuming the LLC forms soon 90L should have the oppotunity to strengthen fairly quickly into a storm, so long as the current highly favorable conditions (low shear, warm water and improving outflow due to the anti-cyclone forming above the center.

It would be 91L, they have assigned 90L to the tropical wave near the C.V. Islands earlier today.

oops got confused this isn't even an invest yet

[floridasun78]

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/5507/atl2.gif

2. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE AREA HAVE BEEN FALLING...DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/7804/avnla.jpg

So I woud assume if this developes or not, it would steer of to the N.E. Correct?

i heard toward nc area up east coast

[SFLcane]

Cant even get this moving westward...500mb longwave pattern says nope.

[boca]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

Looks like its moving NW on the Miami radar.

[AJC3]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=AMX&loop=yes

Looks like its moving NW on the Miami radar.

The Miami radar is only catching shower bands on the west side of the trough. The whole area is moving NNW and will soon turn north as it rounds the Bermuda ridge.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[northjaxpro]

Observing visible and infrared satellite imagery, it looks to me that there is a small counter-clockwise spin that has materialized just N/NE of Grand Bahama Island.


This will most likely be a designated invest shortly. This system may have a window to develop as it moves northward.

[somethingfunny]

Assuming you trust Twitter:

[10:11] <s2k_twitter> BEST TRACK: AL91, 275N 781W, 20kts, 0mb, DB

Amended a bit later to make it a LO rather than DB:

[10:15] <s2k_twitter> BEST TRACK: AL91, 275N 781W, 20kts, 1011mb, LO INVEST

[cycloneye]

Assuming you trust Twitter:

[10:11] <s2k_twitter> BEST TRACK: AL91, 275N 781W, 20kts, 0mb, DB

Amended a bit later to make it a LO rather than DB:

[10:15] <s2k_twitter> BEST TRACK: AL91, 275N 781W, 20kts, 1011mb, LO INVEST

Trust it.Thread is locked.