5pm Advisory.. Cat 4 135 mph at 18.2n-54.0w

[chadtm80]

Hurricane Fabian Advisory Number 17


Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 31, 2003


...Fabian becomes a dangerous category four hurricane...

at 5 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Fabian was located near
latitude 18.2 north...longitude 54.0 west or about 500 miles...800
km...east of the northern Leeward Islands.

Fabian is moving toward the west near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue tonight with a gradual turn to the
west-northwest thereafter. On this track...Fabian is forecast to
pass well to the north of the Leeward Islands in a day or two.

Satellite images indicate that Fabian has strengthened during the
past few hours and maximum sustained winds have reached 135
mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a dangerous
category four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. An
Air Force reconnaissance plane will reach Fabian early Monday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles... 35 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb...27.99 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...18.2 N... 54.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 948 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Avila/Mainelli

[weathergymnast]

Yep I just read it.. still looks like they think the system will pass north of 20 n.. 60 w point. But they do note that the system has been staying on the southern edge of the cone of possible movement.

[weatherlover427]

Wow :o I can't wait to see what the aircraft's report is :o

[chadtm80]

Hurricane Fabian Discussion Number 17


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2003



the eye has become distinct again in both visible and IR images. It
is embedded within a perfect round central dense overcast or CDO
and surrounded by plenty of banding features. The outflow is
expanding in all quadrants and T-numbers are 6.0 on the Dvorak
scale from all agencies. Maximum winds are increased to 115 knots.
This makes Fabian a dangerous category four hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. A more accurate intensity will be
determined early Monday when the first reconnaissance plane reaches
the hurricane.

The hurricane continues to move toward warm waters and into a low
shear environment. WV images show that the upper-level westerlies
ahead of Fabian have been disappearing as correctly forecast by the
global models. Therefore...some additional strengthening is
possible during the next few days. Since the large scale
environment is favorable...at this stage...future intensity changes
will probably be controlled by eyewall dynamics.

Fabian has been moving westward about 10 knots during the past
several hours. At this time...the hurricane is trapped south of a
very strong subtropical ridge and a general westward motion should
continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter...the subtropical
ridge is expected to move eastward allowing Fabian to turn more
toward the west-northwest and then northwest around the periphery
of the subtropical ridge. This is consistent with track guidance
which unanimously brings the hurricane northward on a track
parallel and away from the U.S east coast. The outlier is the
Canadian global model which keeps the hurricane on a more westward
track...bringing the center closer to the northern Leeward Islands.
Lets face it...Fabian has been moving on the southern edge of the
track ensemble all along.

A NOAA high altitude jet is already launching dropsondes in the
surrounding environment. Time will tell if the dropsonde data will
impact future model runs.

Forecaster Avila/Mainelli

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 18.2n 54.0w 115 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 18.3n 55.7w 120 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 19.0n 58.0w 120 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 20.0n 60.0w 120 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 21.0n 62.0w 120 kt
72hr VT 03/1800z 24.0n 65.0w 120 kt
96hr VT 04/1800z 27.0n 67.5w 120 kt
120hr VT 05/1800z 30.5n 69.0w 120 kt

[cycloneye]

This is great to watch as mother nature does his thing but without threatening anyone.It may go up to cat 5 if this trend continues.

[Colin]

"HER thing" Luis...

This is a very dangerous storm...and now we can only hope that this thing does not hit the EC, or any landmass for that matter. :o