Read what Avila says at discussion about the future track

[cycloneye]

http://www.tormenta.net/frame_page.asp? ... s_nt5.html

They are waiting for the noaa plane to send information about the upper enviroment and from that information the guidance may change or not.

And also what he says about the canadian model.

[Colin]

Hmmmm...very, very interesting. That just means that ECers cannot take their eyes off this yet. :o

[chadtm80]

THE OUTLIER IS THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LETS FACE IT...FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK ENSEMBLE ALL ALONG.

[tropicsPR]

It seems that Mr. Avila feels some uncertainty about Fabian's future track. What do you think?

[mf_dolphin]

I think Avila is just being honest! Fabian has consistently stayed further south than expected. If the trough does not pick up Fabian things could get real ugly! It looks like the ridge is creepin west over the last 12 hours so I'll be looking to see if and when it starts retreating East. That seems to be what the models are banking on. Now we just have to watch to see if it develops that way

[msbee]

It looks like the ridge is creepin west over the last 12 hours so I'll be looking to see if and when it starts retreating East.

where are you looking to check that out?
I want to know since I live in the Northern islands

[chadtm80]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

Here in PR the TV mets at the 5 PM news are starting to be somewhat concerned but not a panic situation.

[Stormsfury]

Avila is being very honest ... The outlier here, the Canadian, didn't initialize Fabian for crap.

FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A
VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE
WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A TRACK
PARALLEL AND AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. THE OUTLIER IS THE
CANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
LETS FACE IT...FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK ENSEMBLE ALL ALONG.

A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET IS ALREADY LAUNCHING DROPSONDES IN THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. TIME WILL TELL IF THE DROPSONDE DATA WILL
IMPACT FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

[Lindaloo]

What does he mean by "Let's Face It"

[Derek Ortt]

As I said earlier, SNE or Canada seem like the best bet so far

[Rainband]

It's gonna be interesting to see what the noaa jet FINDS

[ameriwx2003]

Yes it will be interesting to see how the models change or if they change after getting the NOAA jet data:):):)

[BEER980]

What does he mean by "Let's Face It"

IMO Well this storm is not going the way the models say it will but we will stick with the computer for now until we have to change it.

[Lindaloo]

Thanks BEER!