ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

The naked low is due east of St Maarten.



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[Gustywind]

Given the latest of SSD... looks like Ophelia is on on a westward trend as indicated by the NHC.
25/1145 UTC 18.3N 59.9W TOO WEAK OPHELIA
25/0545 UTC 18.3N 59.0W TOO WEAK OPHELIA

[cycloneye]

Still is Ophelia.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA MAKES A JOG TOWARD THE WEST BUT EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 60.4W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

[Hylian Auree]

I don't understand why they are keeping this classified :/ It's obviously just a very sharp exposed trough right now...

[MGC]

This should be downgraded...there is hardly a circulation....MGC

[cycloneye]

Here is why they mantained this as a TC.

OPHELIA IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...
WHICH HAS DISPLACED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SOME
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF
THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT
BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 0410Z THAT INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF 35-40 KT WINDS WINDS BETWEEN 150-225 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER IN A
BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THAT THAT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
PERSISTED SINCE THE ASCAT PASS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT AT LEAST 35-KT
WINDS STILL EXIST IN THAT RAINBAND.

[Hurricanehink]

As much as I don't think it's a tropical storm right now, Ophelia is still very close to land. They are playing it safe. They don't want to see it go boom again, like it did the other day. They'd get major flack for not warning the islands of a tropical storm. By keeping it a tropical storm, the islands are more vigilant.

[painkillerr]

As much as I don't think it's a tropical storm right now, Ophelia is still very close to land. They are playing it safe. They don't want to see it go boom again, like it did the other day. They'd get major flack for not warning the islands of a tropical storm. By keeping it a tropical storm, the islands are more vigilant.

I agree, specially with this westward track and with the possibility of intensification. I don't believe the NE Caribbean islands can write OPHELIA off just yet. I will keep a close eye on it.

[cycloneye]

As much as I don't think it's a tropical storm right now, Ophelia is still very close to land. They are playing it safe. They don't want to see it go boom again, like it did the other day. They'd get major flack for not warning the islands of a tropical storm. By keeping it a tropical storm, the islands are more vigilant.

I agree, specially with this westward track and with the possibility of intensification. I don't believe the NE Caribbean islands can write OPHELIA off just yet. I will keep a close eye on it.

I concur and is not so much the winds but the rains that it may bring that of course PR doesn't need with the year has been with the record rainfall so far.

[painkillerr]

As much as I don't think it's a tropical storm right now, Ophelia is still very close to land. They are playing it safe. They don't want to see it go boom again, like it did the other day. They'd get major flack for not warning the islands of a tropical storm. By keeping it a tropical storm, the islands are more vigilant.

I agree, specially with this westward track and with the possibility of intensification. I don't believe the NE Caribbean islands can write OPHELIA off just yet. I will keep a close eye on it.

I concur and is not so much the winds but the rains that it may bring that of course PR doesn't need with the year has been with the record rainfall so far.

I bet this new track west will revive this forum!

[Hylian Auree]

A tropical wave (which is all it arguably is right now) would bring the same amount of rain as a weak and disorganized tropical storm. Keeping it classified is both unprofessional and constitutes as imparting false information to the public. I would maybe agree if it actually formed a wind threat (since that is the biggest difference between a weak tropical storm and tropical wave), but with the current NHC track they don't even have the center, such as it is, posing a threat to the island, so really it's quite contradictory if it were for public awareness reasons.

[floridasun78]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 250841
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011

...OPHELIA BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

That should read "Ophelia NOT a Tropical Storm". It's just a remnant low now. Really - would something that looks as bad as this ever be upgraded to a TS? Oh, forgot about Jose...

I'd still like to see an independent group totally separated from the NHC with the sole responsibility of storm classification. What would they classify Ophelia as over the past 24 hours?

Closed circulation: barely
Max sustained winds (as measured by recon yesterday): 25-30 kts
Organized convection near center: No
Current Satellite estimate: Too weak to classify
Classification = remnant low

i disagree nhc know what their doing we dont need other group do storm classification.

[painkillerr]

[i][quote="Hylian Auree"]A tropical wave (which is all it arguably is right now) would bring the same amount of rain as a weak and disorganized tropical storm. Keeping it classified is both unprofessional and constitutes as imparting false information to the public. I would maybe agree if it actually formed a wind threat (since that is the biggest difference between a weak tropical storm and tropical wave), but with the current NHC track they don't even have the center, such as it is, posing a threat to the island, so really it's quite contradictory if it were for public awareness reasons. [/i][/i]

The general population are not logged on to Storm2k and don't have the benefit of the discussions in these forums. They have to react to what some TV met is forecasting in their local stations. In PR for instance, different opinions among TV Mets is a laughing matter for the general public.

This season the NHC (sticking to their protocol), have shied away of pulling the gun and only issued advisories, watches and warnings when IRENE and MARIA were literally almost on top of us. No time for preparations for those who strictly rely on these official notifications. Regardless of how OPHELIA looks at this time, I see no downside on having the NHC keep their advisories for some time until we have a clear resolution that OPHELIA will not affect land.

[brunota2003]

There is a recon flight scheduled for Ophelia for this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Anyone wants to post the data of this afternoons mission that is flying now as I have to go.

[wxman57]

i disagree nhc know what their doing we dont need other group do storm classification.

I think they do need an independent group to upgrade/downgrade. I've been a pro met for 31 years now, longer than most of the NHC forecasters. Ophelia doesn't qualify as a TS by any stretch of the imagination.

[HenkL]

000
URNT12 KNHC 251751
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 25/17:33:20Z
B. 18 deg 20 min N
060 deg 36 min W
C. NA
D. 32 kt
E. 335 deg 39 nm
F. 062 deg 23 kt
G. 328 deg 113 nm
H. EXTRAP 1014 mb
I. 25 C / 291 m
J. 25 C / 298 m
K. 16 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0416A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 23 KT NW QUAD 16:56:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
MAX FL TEMP 25 C 330 / 95 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[floridasun78]

i disagree nhc know what their doing we dont need other group do storm classification.

I think they do need an independent group to upgrade/downgrade. I've been a pro met for 31 years now, longer than most of the NHC forecasters. Ophelia doesn't qualify as a TS by any stretch of the imagination.

i still think nhc can do job their pro

[cycloneye]

NHC will pull the plug at 5 PM.

18z Best Track

AL, 16, 2011092518, , BEST, 0, 184N, 606W, 30, 1012, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[expat2carib]

i disagree nhc know what their doing we dont need other group do storm classification.

I think they do need an independent group to upgrade/downgrade. I've been a pro met for 31 years now, longer than most of the NHC forecasters. Ophelia doesn't qualify as a TS by any stretch of the imagination.

You have my vote for chairman of the independent NHC Committee for Initial Classification and Upgrade/Downgrade (CICUD) of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin.

Good salary I hereby suggest