ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneBelle]

Bones says he's going to sit and wait for Ophelia to regenerate.

Just like Spock in the third movie.

[GCANE]

JB is saying 17.5N 57.5W

Looks about right. Been shooting some good OTs this morning.


http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi

Ophelia reforming at 17.5 and 57.5.. look for yourself here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[wxman57]

Center of rotation on TPW loops looks to be closer to 20N/60W.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

There are plenty of obs in the region. Pressures remain on the high side:

[KUEFC]

So what will the possible steering of this be? will it be the same as before? (shooting NE), or will it head more west?, very new with all this so a little help would be appretiated

[wxman57]

So what will the possible steering of this be? will it be the same as before? (shooting NE), or will it head more west?, very new with all this so a little help would be appreciated

Yep. It should remain nearly stationary or drift slowly WNW for a few days then shoot off to the north as a deep trof approaches. Still no threat to the U.S., though it could bring a few showers to the NE Caribbean before it moves off to the north on Wednesday.

[GCANE]

700mb composite at 12Z

[KUEFC]

So what will the possible steering of this be? will it be the same as before? (shooting NE), or will it head more west?, very new with all this so a little help would be appreciated

Yep. It should remain nearly stationary or drift slowly WNW for a few days then shoot off to the north as a deep trof approaches. Still no threat to the U.S., though it could bring a few showers to the NE Caribbean before it moves off to the north on Wednesday.

Thank you so much, just noticed on the CIMMS steering chart it shows high pressure to the north of the system, is this what will be causing the west-northwest movement?, and then i take it that will be moving off on Wednesday allowing the storm to turn more to the north? i probably have that totally wrong!

[wxman57]

Thank you so much, just noticed on the CIMMS steering chart it shows high pressure to the north of the system, is this what will be causing the west-northwest movement?, and then i take it that will be moving off on Wednesday allowing the storm to turn more to the north? i probably have that totally wrong!

Yes, that's correct. High pressure is currently to its north, but look at the big low approaching the Ohio Valley. As the low moves east, so will the high north of Ophelia, allowing for the northward movement in a few days.

[KUEFC]

Thank you so much, just noticed on the CIMMS steering chart it shows high pressure to the north of the system, is this what will be causing the west-northwest movement?, and then i take it that will be moving off on Wednesday allowing the storm to turn more to the north? i probably have that totally wrong!

Yes, that's correct. High pressure is currently to its north, but look at the big low approaching the Ohio Valley. As the low moves east, so will the high north of Ophelia, allowing for the northward movement in a few days.

Thanks alot, very helpful

[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Looks like some pretty good inflow from the west in this loop.

[Hylian Auree]

Woah, latest discussion is pretty poorly written @_@

Raised to 30%
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

[KUEFC]

Upto 30% but NHC now buying into the NW motion sooner rather than later.

[cycloneye]

Woah, latest discussion is pretty poorly written @_@

Raised to 30%
AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME LESS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

They corrected it.

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10
MPH.

[Hylian Auree]

Yeah, I saw. They've always been awesome with their writing, so they're allowed to throw in a howler once in a while

[dwsqos2]

12Z Euro, GFS, and UKMET are all pretty aggresive on regeneration.

[EyewallReconstructor]

There's an awful lot of spin around 18N,56W, but no ASCAT to confirm that it is at the surface. Also, the cloud tops are quite cold in the convection around 19N,59W. SHIPS has backed off the shear big time in the last few days, and the current analysis sits at 4 kt, which is my guess as to why the outflow looks a lot better. I think Ophelia is in the process of reorganizing, and wouldn't be surprised if she officially reforms tomorrow. Thoughts and wagers?

Looks like the models like the regeneration scenario as well: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has formed.

[GCANE]

Outflow in all quads improving nicely.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[GCANE]

Heavy convection beginning to fire close to the LLC.

[GCANE]

Core has recovered nicely.

Looks like she is good to ramp up IMHO