ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[tomboudreau]

Which I should mention that we were down on the OBX 6 years ago when Ophelia was tormenting them back then. I don't know what it is with my family, the OBX, and Ophelia's. I know this one is going to miss them by a considerable amount of distance...but I just find it extremely funny that we seem to be down there when the O storm is floating around.

[Gustywind]

Remnants of ex TS Ophelia.
Given my untrained eyes, looks like Ophelia's remnants seem to reactivate by moving to the south. Maybe just an optical illusion. So let's continue to monitor carefully the sitution in the Leewards, we never know how this thing will evolve...

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT21 KNGU 270800
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 59.0W TO 21.2N 64.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 270700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 59.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 280800Z.//

[Gustywind]

Just curious this morning... because of our Pro Mets of Meteo-France in their latest forecast of 6AM think that "Ophelia remnants located 200 km east of Guadeloupe are on the verge of regenerate and could evolve in cyclonic phenomenon before the end of the day" . Let's wait and see.

[cycloneye]

Gusty,read post that I made above yours.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,read post that I made above yours.

Thanks Cycloneye i appreciate

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANT LOW OF OPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W. SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER DEFINED AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NW
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N57W
TO 20N59W.

[O Town]

[cycloneye]

80%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA...CENTERED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE
AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A BROAD
CIRCULATION...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

12z Best track has low more down in position than the 06z one that was at 19.7N. They fixed the positions and is crawling strait westward at the moment.

AL, 16, 2011092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[wxman57]

Definitely will be Ophelia in the very near future (today/tonight).

[tolakram]

You can see the southerly drift in the live MIMIC-TPW loop:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[expat2carib]

"Ophelia to be" is starting to annoy me. It's almost stationary hanging to our east sucking all energy out of here. Two days with almost no wind, seas as calm as can be and hot...hot. Now we can just hope she doesn't dump all this on our heads when she finally get her act together and makes the predicted move (north?) west.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

"Ophelia to be" is starting to annoy me. It's almost stationary hanging to our east sucking all energy out of here. Two days with almost no wind, seas as calm as can be and hot...hot. Now we can just hope she doesn't dump all this on our heads when she finally get her act together and makes the predicted move (north?) west.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even more west from you in PR,we have been under light winds,that causes the sea breeze to kick in the afternoons to cause heavy thunderstorms with flash floods occuring.

[floridasun78]

center look more south were their have center at

[warmer]

Looks like she is drawing her previous self back to her and together they are going clockwise?

[bexar]

Intensity-wise, how are the models predicting regenerated Ophelia?

[cycloneye]

This afternoons mission is a go as no remark was made. There are two more missions for Wednesday and Thursday.

NOUS42 KNHC 271415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT TUE 27 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF OPHELIA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 28/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0616A OPHELIA
C. 28/1030Z
D. 19.3N 60.4W
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 29/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0716A OPHELIA
C. 28/2230Z
D. 20.0N 60.7W
E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0330Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[HurricaneWarning92]

is it a guarantee that Ophelia will get picked up by the trough or is there a possibility that it could stay just enough south to miss it? I mean even if its a tiny possibility

[hipshot]

12z Best track has low more down in position than the 06z one that was at 19.7N. They fixed the positions and is crawling strait westward at the moment.

AL, 16, 2011092712, , BEST, 0, 185N, 595W, 25, 1010, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

To my untrained eye, it sure looks like this gal is moving slightly south of west but I don't know
where the CoC is, if there is one, just looking at the convection since the center might be under
it somewhere. The northern islands looks like they are in the path.