ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sanibel]

It's entirely weird seeing a system nearly stationary in that spot at this time of year.

[EyewallReconstructor]

If there is a closed LLC, and if there has been persistent deep convection over or near that center, are we just waiting for the maximum winds in association to pick up? The latest ASCAT pass measures a few 25kt barbs to the SE of the circulation. Is that not enough for an upgrade to a tropical depression?

[warmer]

They probably are waiting for recon data.

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying now.Who wants to post the data?

URNT15 KNHC 271601
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 02 20110927
155130 1745N 06436W 7728 02338 0114 +148 +047 324009 009 /// /// 03
155200 1745N 06434W 7474 02652 0103 +134 +023 318010 011 /// /// 03
155230 1746N 06432W 7233 02908 0130 +116 +022 313011 012 /// /// 03
155300 1746N 06430W 7001 03178 0131 +098 +012 308012 012 /// /// 03
155330 1747N 06428W 6791 03439 0138 +084 -051 307012 013 /// /// 03
155400 1747N 06426W 6584 03690 0142 +065 -041 304013 013 /// /// 03
155430 1748N 06424W 6385 03944 0137 +054 -112 305009 010 /// /// 03
155500 1748N 06422W 6189 04203 0135 +042 -161 312008 008 /// /// 03
155530 1748N 06420W 6014 04433 0122 +027 -168 316004 005 /// /// 03
155600 1749N 06418W 5852 04630 0111 +009 -110 304003 005 /// /// 03
155630 1749N 06415W 5707 04833 0111 -003 -134 302005 006 /// /// 03
155700 1750N 06413W 5572 05017 0116 -014 -201 326004 005 /// /// 03
155730 1750N 06411W 5433 05219 0263 -022 -267 360004 004 /// /// 03
155800 1751N 06409W 5305 05429 0293 -032 -284 353005 006 /// /// 03
155830 1751N 06406W 5191 05596 0305 -042 -278 344004 005 /// /// 03
155900 1751N 06404W 5089 05758 0314 -047 -306 315006 007 /// /// 03
155930 1752N 06402W 4998 05893 0323 -052 -292 293009 010 /// /// 03
160000 1752N 06359W 4923 06020 0330 -062 -236 295011 011 /// /// 03
160030 1753N 06357W 4842 06145 0338 -072 -194 296012 013 /// /// 03
160100 1753N 06355W 4761 06277 0348 -083 -201 289012 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[warmer]

size wise, she is really growing...

[tolakram]

Live Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Still looks elongated, though I can't see below the clouds to be sure.

[NDG]

Is a weird direction that the recon is flying to, the COC is clearly seen well SE of them.

000
URNT15 KNHC 271641
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 06 20110927
163130 1855N 06132W 4098 07415 0405 -154 -221 061005 006 /// /// 03
163200 1857N 06130W 4099 07415 0405 -152 -247 060006 006 /// /// 03
163230 1859N 06128W 4098 07417 0405 -150 -259 061006 007 /// /// 03
163300 1901N 06127W 4100 07411 0405 -150 -307 057005 005 /// /// 03
163330 1902N 06125W 4101 07411 0405 -150 -215 074004 005 /// /// 03
163400 1904N 06123W 4097 07417 0404 -150 -209 078005 006 /// /// 03
163430 1906N 06121W 4098 07415 0404 -150 -195 073007 007 /// /// 03
163500 1908N 06119W 4101 07406 0404 -150 -199 072007 007 /// /// 03
163530 1910N 06118W 4098 07417 0404 -153 -182 076007 007 /// /// 03
163600 1912N 06116W 4098 07419 0404 -151 -182 075007 007 /// /// 03
163630 1914N 06114W 4099 07416 0404 -154 -184 085008 008 /// /// 03
163700 1916N 06112W 4241 07160 0389 -139 -180 097008 009 /// /// 03
163730 1918N 06111W 4436 06819 0372 -113 -205 076005 006 /// /// 03
163800 1920N 06109W 4673 06425 0356 -091 -237 089010 012 /// /// 03
163830 1922N 06107W 4928 06015 0337 -066 -232 095014 015 /// /// 03
163900 1924N 06105W 5176 05627 0311 -041 -332 081014 015 /// /// 03
163930 1926N 06103W 5434 05235 0283 -017 -291 042009 011 /// /// 03
164000 1927N 06101W 5685 04874 0115 +001 -159 026011 012 /// /// 03
164030 1929N 06059W 5943 04498 0119 +017 -118 035011 012 /// /// 03
164100 1931N 06058W 6210 04171 0139 +041 -162 045013 014 /// /// 03

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271651
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 07 20110927
164130 1933N 06056W 6491 03810 0131 +065 -084 044011 012 /// /// 03
164200 1935N 06054W 6765 03466 0128 +088 -082 047013 014 /// /// 03
164230 1936N 06053W 7036 03137 0126 +100 +031 055014 014 /// /// 03
164300 1938N 06051W 7317 02803 0128 +113 +056 078018 018 /// /// 03
164330 1940N 06050W 7608 02471 0125 +134 +068 085018 018 /// /// 03
164400 1941N 06048W 7918 02144 0137 +150 +090 088017 018 /// /// 03
164430 1943N 06046W 8237 01803 0139 +156 +133 080018 018 /// /// 03
164500 1944N 06045W 8291 01746 0136 +165 +124 073019 019 023 000 03
164530 1946N 06044W 8269 01763 0130 +163 +134 070019 019 024 000 03
164600 1947N 06043W 8272 01761 0131 +160 +145 080020 020 023 000 00
164630 1948N 06042W 8273 01759 0132 +157 +149 077019 019 023 000 00
164700 1949N 06041W 8272 01765 0134 +158 +150 076017 018 /// /// 03
164730 1948N 06039W 8275 01759 0134 +159 +150 064016 016 /// /// 03
164800 1947N 06039W 8275 01757 0133 +156 +153 060018 020 023 000 03
164830 1945N 06041W 8273 01760 0128 +160 +150 059019 020 025 000 00
164900 1944N 06042W 8276 01755 0130 +161 +148 060021 021 025 000 03
164930 1944N 06044W 8272 01767 0134 +160 +143 066022 022 /// /// 03
165000 1945N 06044W 8273 01760 0133 +157 +145 075021 022 /// /// 03
165030 1946N 06043W 8275 01757 0132 +159 +146 081020 020 024 000 03
165100 1947N 06042W 8272 01761 0131 +160 +147 080019 020 022 001 00

[NDG]

Recon now turning SE.

URNT15 KNHC 271702
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 08 20110927
165130 1948N 06041W 8277 01758 0133 +159 +150 078017 018 022 000 03
165200 1949N 06040W 8273 01761 0133 +160 +148 069016 016 /// /// 03
165230 1947N 06039W 8272 01764 0134 +159 +151 062018 019 /// /// 03
165300 1946N 06040W 8273 01760 0133 +158 +152 062021 021 023 000 03
165330 1945N 06042W 8521 01511 0138 +170 +158 069023 024 /// /// 03
165400 1946N 06042W 8955 01093 0145 +188 +171 079025 026 /// /// 03
165430 1948N 06041W 9342 00714 0134 +213 +182 084024 025 /// /// 03
165500 1949N 06040W 9705 00404 0151 +231 +209 086021 022 025 000 03
165530 1950N 06039W 9793 00318 0154 +242 +218 079021 022 026 000 03
165600 1951N 06038W 9757 00347 0151 +240 +220 076020 021 023 000 00
165630 1952N 06037W 9770 00337 0152 +240 +215 076021 021 023 000 00
165700 1954N 06036W 9771 00337 0153 +240 +208 079022 022 025 000 03
165730 1955N 06035W 9778 00331 0153 +240 +205 080021 021 022 000 03
165800 1954N 06034W 9765 00342 0153 +239 +204 076019 019 023 000 03
165830 1953N 06033W 9772 00336 0153 +240 +202 079019 020 024 000 00
165900 1952N 06032W 9770 00337 0152 +239 +199 080018 018 023 000 00
165930 1951N 06031W 9770 00336 0152 +238 +198 078018 018 023 000 03
170000 1950N 06030W 9768 00337 0152 +237 +198 079017 018 022 000 00
170030 1949N 06028W 9770 00336 0152 +238 +195 076018 019 024 000 03
170100 1948N 06027W 9772 00334 0152 +237 +193 078020 020 024 000 03
$$

[NDG]

000
URNT15 KNHC 271711
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 09 20110927
170130 1947N 06026W 9769 00336 0151 +236 +189 081019 019 024 000 03
170200 1946N 06025W 9772 00334 0151 +235 +192 079017 018 023 000 00
170230 1945N 06024W 9769 00335 0151 +235 +195 077017 017 022 000 00
170300 1944N 06023W 9770 00335 0150 +236 +194 077017 017 022 000 03
170330 1943N 06022W 9769 00336 0150 +236 +193 079017 018 022 000 03
170400 1942N 06021W 9772 00333 0151 +235 +194 091017 018 024 000 00
170430 1941N 06020W 9772 00333 0150 +235 +195 092017 018 023 000 03
170500 1940N 06019W 9774 00330 0150 +234 +195 092017 018 025 000 00
170530 1939N 06018W 9773 00331 0149 +232 +197 091017 018 025 000 00
170600 1937N 06017W 9776 00328 0149 +235 +193 085019 020 020 000 03
170630 1936N 06016W 9769 00334 0149 +235 +191 085019 020 020 000 03
170700 1935N 06015W 9769 00334 0149 +232 +194 087018 018 023 000 03
170730 1934N 06014W 9772 00331 0148 +233 +194 092018 019 024 000 00
170800 1933N 06013W 9772 00331 0148 +230 +198 094017 018 023 000 03
170830 1931N 06012W 9773 00331 0148 +232 +200 089017 019 023 000 03
170900 1930N 06012W 9771 00331 0147 +235 +197 088019 020 025 000 03
170930 1928N 06012W 9772 00331 0147 +236 +190 093019 019 023 000 03
171000 1927N 06011W 9772 00330 0146 +235 +192 089017 018 023 000 03
171030 1925N 06011W 9770 00331 0146 +235 +197 083017 018 024 000 03
171100 1924N 06011W 9768 00332 0146 +234 +199 087018 018 025 000 03
$$

[NDG]

Still heading south looking for the new COC.

000
URNT15 KNHC 271721
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 10 20110927
171130 1922N 06010W 9768 00331 0145 +235 +200 086018 019 025 000 03
171200 1921N 06010W 9772 00328 0145 +235 +200 087018 019 024 000 03
171230 1919N 06010W 9770 00330 0144 +235 +201 086018 019 026 000 03
171300 1918N 06010W 9772 00328 0144 +234 +204 090020 020 025 000 03
171330 1916N 06010W 9770 00329 0143 +233 +204 088021 021 025 000 03
171400 1915N 06010W 9770 00328 0143 +234 +204 088021 021 025 000 03
171430 1913N 06010W 9770 00328 0143 +231 +205 087020 021 026 000 03
171500 1912N 06009W 9771 00327 0142 +232 +205 091020 021 025 000 03
171530 1910N 06009W 9769 00328 0141 +231 +208 089020 021 026 000 03
171600 1909N 06009W 9772 00325 0140 +234 +206 090020 021 026 000 03
171630 1907N 06009W 9770 00325 0140 +231 +207 092020 020 026 000 03
171700 1905N 06009W 9768 00326 0139 +234 +209 091019 019 025 000 00
171730 1904N 06009W 9769 00325 0138 +234 +207 088018 019 025 000 00
171800 1902N 06009W 9772 00321 0137 +234 +208 089015 016 024 000 00
171830 1901N 06009W 9770 00322 0136 +234 +208 092014 014 021 000 03
171900 1859N 06009W 9770 00322 0135 +235 +205 091014 014 022 000 00
171930 1858N 06009W 9771 00321 0135 +236 +201 092012 013 021 000 03
172000 1856N 06009W 9771 00320 0134 +235 +203 096011 011 020 000 00
172030 1855N 06008W 9770 00320 0134 +234 +206 106009 010 019 000 03
172100 1853N 06008W 9774 00316 0133 +235 +207 101010 011 018 001 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Perhaps is not that well organized at the surface as I thought.


URNT15 KNHC 271731
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 11 20110927
172130 1852N 06009W 9770 00320 0133 +235 +206 099009 009 018 000 03
172200 1850N 06009W 9769 00321 0133 +235 +208 091009 010 018 000 03
172230 1848N 06009W 9770 00320 0133 +234 +209 093008 009 017 001 03
172300 1847N 06009W 9772 00318 0133 +235 +208 102007 007 017 000 03
172330 1845N 06009W 9774 00315 0132 +235 +207 109007 007 016 000 03
172400 1844N 06010W 9772 00317 0131 +235 +208 101006 006 017 000 00
172430 1842N 06010W 9769 00319 0132 +232 +210 088006 007 017 000 03
172500 1841N 06010W 9770 00318 0132 +232 +211 076004 005 019 000 03
172530 1839N 06010W 9772 00318 0132 +233 +211 036003 003 019 000 00
172600 1838N 06010W 9772 00318 0132 +235 +209 106002 003 018 001 03
172630 1836N 06009W 9770 00320 0133 +235 +212 127003 004 023 001 00
172700 1835N 06008W 9773 00317 0133 +230 +220 122001 002 029 007 00
172730 1834N 06008W 9770 00320 0133 +230 +222 158004 004 033 017 03
172800 1832N 06007W 9769 00320 0134 +221 //// 169005 006 042 023 01
172830 1831N 06006W 9772 00318 0132 +234 +229 170006 006 028 008 00
172900 1830N 06006W 9770 00320 0132 +240 +230 162005 005 026 004 03
172930 1828N 06005W 9770 00321 0132 +240 +230 154005 005 020 003 00
173000 1827N 06005W 9770 00320 0132 +235 +232 163004 004 019 005 00
173030 1825N 06005W 9772 00317 0131 +239 +232 166004 004 023 006 03
173100 1824N 06005W 9770 00319 0131 +237 +233 183004 005 022 005 03
$$

[NDG]

Still looking for a COC.

URNT15 KNHC 271741
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 12 20110927
173130 1822N 06006W 9770 00318 0130 +237 +234 222003 004 021 006 00
173200 1821N 06006W 9769 00319 0130 +237 +232 231006 008 016 006 00
173230 1819N 06007W 9769 00319 0131 +232 +232 219007 011 021 007 00
173300 1818N 06007W 9767 00322 0132 +232 //// 203007 010 016 004 05
173330 1817N 06008W 9770 00319 0132 +232 //// 199006 006 006 003 01
173400 1816N 06010W 9772 00319 0132 +235 +233 206003 004 001 000 03
173430 1815N 06011W 9772 00317 0131 +235 +229 190001 002 /// /// 03
173500 1814N 06012W 9770 00318 0132 +235 +227 108000 001 /// /// 03
173530 1813N 06014W 9769 00319 0131 +235 +225 080001 002 /// /// 03
173600 1812N 06015W 9778 00311 0131 +235 +224 109003 004 /// /// 03
173630 1813N 06016W 9767 00321 0131 +236 +223 094004 005 /// /// 03
173700 1814N 06017W 9771 00318 0131 +238 +222 069005 006 /// /// 03
173730 1815N 06019W 9774 00315 0130 +239 +220 060005 006 /// /// 03
173800 1816N 06020W 9773 00315 0130 +240 +217 066008 009 /// /// 03
173830 1817N 06021W 9767 00320 0130 +240 +214 055009 010 /// /// 03
173900 1819N 06022W 9771 00317 0130 +241 +210 056008 009 /// /// 03
173930 1820N 06023W 9769 00319 0130 +240 +206 052010 010 /// /// 03
174000 1821N 06025W 9773 00314 0129 +240 +205 044010 011 /// /// 03
174030 1822N 06026W 9772 00316 0129 +240 +202 043011 011 /// /// 03
174100 1823N 06027W 9771 00316 0129 +240 +205 043011 012 /// /// 03
$$
;

[tolakram]

[NDG]

So far the recon is finding that the surface COC may not be where the MLC is seen on satellite. It seems to be more disorganized that it appears in satellite.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE SEP 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM PHILIPPE...LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. IF THE AIRCRAFT
FINDS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES WILL BE
RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL
REDEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF REGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[NDG]

Not impressed with surface pressures found so far.

URNT15 KNHC 271751
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 13 20110927
174130 1824N 06028W 9769 00318 0129 +240 +205 042012 012 /// /// 03
174200 1825N 06029W 9772 00317 0129 +240 +205 037012 012 /// /// 03
174230 1826N 06030W 9772 00315 0129 +240 +203 031013 013 000 000 03
174300 1827N 06032W 9768 00319 0129 +240 +203 031014 014 000 000 03
174330 1828N 06033W 9770 00317 0129 +240 +205 030014 014 000 001 03
174400 1829N 06034W 9778 00310 0129 +240 +203 029014 014 /// /// 03
174430 1831N 06034W 9765 00321 0129 +240 +203 034012 012 000 000 03
174500 1832N 06034W 9772 00315 0129 +240 +202 030012 013 000 000 03
174530 1834N 06034W 9772 00315 0129 +240 +203 027012 012 000 000 03
174600 1835N 06034W 9772 00315 0129 +239 +204 022012 012 002 000 03
174630 1836N 06034W 9768 00318 0129 +236 +204 025012 013 009 000 03
174700 1838N 06034W 9773 00314 0128 +238 +203 032014 015 012 000 03
174730 1839N 06034W 9769 00317 0129 +235 +204 033014 015 011 000 03
174800 1841N 06034W 9776 00311 0128 +238 +205 027014 014 /// /// 03
174830 1841N 06032W 9762 00322 0128 +236 +205 009012 012 007 000 03
174900 1841N 06031W 9777 00309 0128 +239 +204 016011 011 006 000 00
174930 1841N 06029W 9767 00319 0128 +238 +203 013009 010 004 000 03
175000 1840N 06028W 9772 00314 0128 +237 +205 011008 008 005 000 00
175030 1840N 06026W 9772 00314 0128 +238 +204 006006 006 004 000 03
175100 1840N 06024W 9771 00316 0129 +237 +204 024004 004 004 001 03
$$

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 271801
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 14 20110927
175130 1839N 06023W 9773 00314 0129 +235 +205 042003 004 003 001 03
175200 1838N 06022W 9773 00313 0130 +235 +206 062003 003 003 001 03
175230 1837N 06021W 9772 00315 0130 +235 +206 047003 004 004 000 03
175300 1836N 06020W 9769 00318 0130 +237 +204 042003 004 006 004 03
175330 1835N 06019W 9772 00315 0129 +237 +204 052002 003 004 001 03
175400 1833N 06018W 9765 00322 0129 +235 +205 051003 003 003 000 00
175430 1832N 06017W 9768 00317 0128 +235 +203 042002 003 006 000 00
175500 1831N 06016W 9770 00316 0128 +235 +205 057002 002 006 002 00
175530 1830N 06015W 9774 00311 0127 +238 +207 037001 001 011 000 03
175600 1828N 06014W 9776 00310 0127 +240 +207 345001 001 015 001 00
175630 1827N 06013W 9772 00313 0127 +240 +209 248001 001 017 003 00
175700 1826N 06011W 9765 00319 0126 +240 +209 211001 002 /// /// 03
175730 1826N 06010W 9773 00311 0125 +240 +211 178004 005 020 002 00
175800 1826N 06008W 9770 00313 0126 +236 +216 172007 008 018 005 00
175830 1827N 06007W 9770 00315 0127 +236 +224 167007 008 024 004 00
175900 1827N 06005W 9771 00314 0127 +235 +227 181010 011 019 001 00
175930 1827N 06003W 9769 00316 0127 +235 +224 173010 010 011 001 00
180000 1827N 06002W 9776 00311 0127 +239 +220 183009 010 /// /// 03
180030 1826N 06001W 9768 00317 0127 +236 +220 205008 008 015 001 03
180100 1825N 06001W 9769 00316 0128 +235 +220 203008 009 012 002 00

[Blown Away]

Again we have another system just hanging around this general area for days and no sign of a strong high pressure to move the system significantly west. Interesting year with so many weak systems and persistent troughing.