ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 271931
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 23 20110927
192130 1706N 06055W 9770 00293 0102 +230 +201 279017 018 014 000 03
192200 1704N 06055W 9767 00295 0102 +231 +206 277020 023 015 000 03
192230 1703N 06055W 9771 00291 0101 +230 +211 281023 025 016 000 03
192300 1701N 06055W 9767 00296 0102 +230 +210 281021 021 017 000 03
192330 1659N 06055W 9771 00292 0102 +233 +207 273023 024 019 000 03
192400 1658N 06055W 9768 00294 0102 +234 +203 271023 024 020 000 03
192430 1656N 06054W 9769 00295 0104 +230 +207 274022 022 018 001 03
192500 1655N 06054W 9769 00296 0105 +231 +209 268021 022 /// /// 03
192530 1655N 06052W 9768 00297 0105 +234 +204 262019 021 016 000 03
192600 1656N 06051W 9768 00297 0104 +230 +206 264017 018 018 000 03
192630 1658N 06050W 9768 00296 0104 +230 +209 261017 019 021 000 03
192700 1659N 06049W 9768 00297 0104 +230 +214 262017 018 022 000 00
192730 1700N 06048W 9769 00296 0104 +230 +218 261016 018 018 000 03
192800 1701N 06046W 9769 00295 0104 +230 +216 263018 018 018 000 03
192830 1702N 06045W 9768 00295 0103 +228 +214 262016 016 019 000 03
192900 1704N 06044W 9770 00293 0103 +227 +216 258017 018 020 000 03
192930 1705N 06043W 9767 00296 0102 +231 +214 255019 019 018 000 03
193000 1706N 06041W 9768 00295 0102 +235 +210 260019 020 020 000 03
193030 1707N 06040W 9770 00293 0102 +234 +210 258019 019 022 000 03
193100 1708N 06039W 9768 00294 0102 +233 +213 261017 018 019 001 03
$$
;

[Dave]

Runing one frame ahead of you NDG, just a catchup graphic here...wide area..

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

27/1745 UTC 17.6N 58.9W T1.0/1.0 OPHELIA
27/1145 UTC 18.7N 60.0W T1.0/1.0 OPHELIA

[NDG]

1009mb COC near 17.9N & 60.4W

000
URNT15 KNHC 271951
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 25 20110927
194130 1740N 06035W 9757 00299 0096 +235 +208 298005 005 005 000 00
194200 1742N 06034W 9761 00295 0095 +236 +208 295006 006 003 000 03
194230 1743N 06033W 9764 00293 0095 +236 +206 311006 006 001 000 03
194300 1744N 06032W 9758 00297 0095 +237 +205 315005 006 002 001 03
194330 1745N 06031W 9761 00295 0094 +238 +204 306005 006 003 000 03
194400 1747N 06030W 9762 00293 0094 +237 +203 310006 006 005 000 03
194430 1748N 06029W 9757 00297 0093 +240 +204 307005 006 003 000 03
194500 1749N 06028W 9763 00292 0093 +240 +201 319005 005 004 000 03
194530 1750N 06027W 9764 00290 0092 +239 +201 316005 005 003 001 03
194600 1751N 06025W 9762 00291 0092 +235 +201 304003 004 002 000 03
194630 1752N 06024W 9761 00293 0093 +234 +201 304002 002 001 000 03
194700 1754N 06023W 9762 00292 0093 +235 +202 291002 002 005 000 03
194730 1755N 06022W 9762 00291 0092 +235 +202 279002 003 004 000 00
194800 1756N 06021W 9761 00293 0093 +235 +203 261001 001 004 000 00
194830 1757N 06020W 9763 00291 0093 +234 +203 194001 002 005 000 03
194900 1759N 06019W 9760 00294 0093 +230 +205 183004 005 006 000 03
194930 1800N 06018W 9764 00291 0094 +230 +207 170006 007 009 000 03
195000 1801N 06017W 9764 00291 0094 +230 +210 164007 007 008 000 03
195030 1803N 06017W 9764 00292 0094 +232 +210 163006 007 006 000 03
195100 1804N 06016W 9755 00299 0094 +230 +209 176007 008 008 000 03
$$
;

[Gustywind]

Ophelia remnants... on a comeback trend?

[Driftin]

I know the models say this will move to the north but, with the center now being relocated to the south what are the chances this moves closer towards the northern leeward islands and PR?

[Dave]

[NDG]

Recon found a better defined COC near 17.9N & 60.4W, 1009mb surface pressure.

[Gustywind]

Here we are... Guadeloupe is under an yellow alert since 30 minutes.

[Dave]

Here's hdobs 24 from the archives...

Code: Select all

437
URNT15 KNHC 271950
AF303 0516A INVEST             HDOB 24 20110927
193130 1710N 06038W 9768 00294 0102 +232 +220 256016 018 021 000 03
193200 1711N 06038W 9769 00293 0101 +235 +211 256014 015 022 000 03
193230 1713N 06037W 9768 00294 0101 +235 +209 259014 015 020 000 03
193300 1715N 06037W 9769 00292 0100 +235 +210 267013 014 021 000 03
193330 1716N 06036W 9769 00292 0100 +235 +210 267011 013 020 000 03
193400 1718N 06036W 9768 00293 0100 +233 +211 262011 014 019 000 03
193430 1719N 06036W 9769 00291 0099 +234 +211 253009 011 019 000 03
193500 1721N 06036W 9761 00298 0099 +234 +213 259009 009 015 000 03
193530 1722N 06036W 9765 00295 0099 +235 +212 263008 009 010 000 03
193600 1724N 06037W 9773 00288 0099 +235 +212 268008 008 011 000 03
193630 1725N 06037W 9765 00294 0099 +236 +212 268008 009 011 000 03
193700 1727N 06037W 9769 00291 0098 +238 +211 275009 009 010 000 03
193730 1728N 06037W 9769 00291 0098 +238 +210 270009 009 011 000 03
193800 1730N 06037W 9762 00297 0098 +238 +210 276008 009 012 000 03
193830 1732N 06037W 9762 00296 0098 +238 +209 274007 007 010 000 03
193900 1733N 06037W 9761 00298 0098 +239 +211 278006 007 007 000 00
193930 1735N 06037W 9765 00293 0097 +239 +208 285006 007 003 000 03
194000 1736N 06037W 9766 00292 0097 +238 +211 299006 007 006 000 03
194030 1738N 06036W 9759 00298 0096 +239 +209 302006 006 005 000 03
194100 1739N 06035W 9764 00294 0097 +238 +208 311006 006 007 000 03
$$
;




[Dave]

406
URNT15 KNHC 272001
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 26 20110927
195130 1805N 06015W 9767 00289 0095 +230 +210 182008 009 008 000 03
195200 1806N 06013W 9761 00294 0095 +230 +210 176009 009 010 000 03
195230 1806N 06012W 9761 00295 0095 +230 +210 179009 010 008 000 03
195300 1807N 06010W 9761 00295 0096 +227 +212 183010 011 009 000 03
195330 1808N 06009W 9761 00295 0095 +228 +214 177011 012 011 000 03
195400 1808N 06007W 9761 00294 0095 +229 +213 178012 012 012 000 03
195430 1809N 06006W 9758 00296 0094 +226 +216 182014 015 015 000 00
195500 1810N 06004W 9767 00288 0094 +228 +214 185014 016 012 000 03
195530 1811N 06003W 9761 00293 0095 +227 +213 184014 015 013 000 03
195600 1812N 06001W 9758 00297 0095 +227 +213 186014 015 013 000 03
195630 1812N 06000W 9765 00291 0095 +227 +213 190014 015 014 000 03
195700 1813N 05958W 9762 00293 0095 +227 +213 190015 015 014 001 00
195730 1814N 05957W 9758 00297 0095 +230 +214 193015 015 013 000 03
195800 1815N 05955W 9760 00296 0096 +230 +213 197014 015 015 000 03
195830 1816N 05954W 9762 00295 0097 +230 +212 191014 014 021 001 03
195900 1817N 05953W 9761 00296 0098 +228 +213 191013 014 022 004 00
195930 1818N 05951W 9759 00299 0098 +220 +219 197012 013 025 004 03
200000 1819N 05950W 9761 00297 0099 +216 //// 200012 012 030 008 01
200030 1820N 05948W 9765 00292 0100 +205 //// 204010 010 039 022 05
200100 1821N 05947W 9759 00297 //// +199 //// 208008 010 044 023 01
$$
;

[Dave]

[NDG]

Still looks elongated.

[Dave]

Still looks elongated.

Go ahead and take hdobs if you want NDG..

[wxman57]

No significant wind threat to the NE Caribbean, just the possibility of heavy rainfall.

[Dave]

428
URNT15 KNHC 272011
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 27 20110927
200130 1822N 05946W 9759 00296 //// +196 //// 209008 008 040 015 05
200200 1824N 05945W 9751 00307 0101 +209 //// 221006 007 031 010 05
200230 1825N 05944W 9769 00291 0102 +207 //// 138002 006 029 012 05
200300 1826N 05943W 9759 00299 0100 +225 +223 087007 008 010 000 03
200330 1827N 05942W 9766 00294 0100 +223 +220 090005 006 011 000 03
200400 1828N 05941W 9761 00299 0100 +226 +214 117006 007 018 000 03
200430 1829N 05940W 9762 00298 0100 +228 +214 122008 009 023 006 03
200500 1831N 05939W 9758 00301 0102 +219 //// 118006 007 032 010 01
200530 1832N 05938W 9766 00296 //// +196 //// 106007 009 036 019 05
200600 1833N 05937W 9765 00295 //// +196 //// 099010 012 036 012 05
200630 1834N 05936W 9769 00295 0104 +215 //// 071014 015 029 006 05
200700 1835N 05935W 9760 00303 0104 +220 //// 070015 017 030 008 01
200730 1836N 05934W 9761 00301 0103 +220 //// 064018 018 031 007 01
200800 1837N 05933W 9765 00297 0103 +220 //// 069017 018 030 005 01
200830 1838N 05932W 9765 00297 0103 +220 //// 072015 015 028 003 01
200900 1839N 05931W 9758 00303 0103 +218 //// 067015 015 024 004 01
200930 1840N 05930W 9764 00297 0103 +215 //// 071014 015 023 007 01
201000 1842N 05929W 9761 00300 0104 +215 //// 078015 016 025 006 01
201030 1843N 05928W 9761 00300 0104 +215 //// 080017 018 023 005 01
201100 1844N 05927W 9765 00297 0104 +217 +217 086019 019 023 005 00
$$
;

[Dave]

000
URNT12 KNHC 272008
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL162011
A. 27/19:48:20Z
B. 17 deg 57 min N
060 deg 21 min W
C. NA
D. 23 kt
E. 206 deg 64 nm
F. 259 deg 20 kt
G. 202 deg 54 nm
H. EXTRAP 1009 mb
I. 23 C / 306 m
J. 24 C / 313 m
K. 20 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 34 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 0516A INVEST OB 06
MAX FL WIND 20 KT S QUAD 19:30:00Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM BELOW 1500 FT
;

[Dave]

DECODED VDM 06

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 27th day of the month at 20:08Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Tropical Depression: Number 16 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 27th day of the month at 19:48:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°57'N 60°21'W (17.95N 60.35W)
B. Center Fix Location: 114 miles (184 km) to the ENE (60°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 23kts (~ 26.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SSW (206°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 259° at 20kts (From between the WSW and W at ~ 23.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 54 nautical miles (62 statute miles) to the SSW (202°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 306m (1,004ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 313m (1,027ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 20kts (~ 23.0mph) in the south quadrant at 19:30:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet

[Dave]

[Dave]

990
URNT15 KNHC 272021
AF303 0516A INVEST HDOB 28 20110927
201130 1845N 05926W 9760 00302 0104 +220 +215 084019 020 024 005 00
201200 1846N 05925W 9762 00300 0104 +220 +216 087017 017 018 004 00
201230 1847N 05924W 9763 00299 0103 +224 +216 083017 017 012 001 00
201300 1848N 05923W 9766 00297 0104 +225 +214 079016 016 012 002 00
201330 1849N 05922W 9758 00306 0104 +223 +214 080014 014 010 000 03
201400 1850N 05921W 9763 00300 0104 +222 +217 085015 015 009 000 03
201430 1851N 05919W 9764 00298 0104 +225 +217 084016 016 008 000 03
201500 1852N 05918W 9757 00305 0104 +219 //// 081017 018 018 000 05
201530 1853N 05917W 9768 00296 0105 +218 //// 082016 016 023 001 01
201600 1855N 05916W 9761 00302 0105 +220 +218 082016 016 019 001 03
201630 1856N 05915W 9762 00301 0105 +221 +210 082017 019 015 001 03
201700 1857N 05914W 9762 00300 0105 +223 +206 086019 020 012 000 03
201730 1858N 05913W 9764 00299 0105 +222 +209 089021 022 010 001 00
201800 1859N 05912W 9759 00305 0105 +219 +211 086020 022 011 000 00
201830 1900N 05911W 9766 00299 0106 +220 +211 086020 021 010 000 00
201900 1901N 05910W 9762 00302 0106 +220 +211 084019 019 015 000 00
201930 1902N 05909W 9762 00302 0106 +222 +210 081019 019 016 000 00
202000 1903N 05908W 9763 00301 0106 +225 +204 079020 021 015 000 03
202030 1904N 05907W 9762 00302 0106 +223 +205 080021 022 017 000 03
202100 1905N 05906W 9763 00302 0106 +220 +213 080021 022 019 000 00
$$
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