MED: Subtropical Depression over the Mediterranean Sea

[DanieleItalyRm]

A probably TC be expected from the Lamma Wrf-Arw Ecm Model. But this is only a forecast to 5 days, very uncertainly:

[Category 5]

Very pleased to see these systems getting attention, they are quite interesting to study.

[westwind]

A probably TC be expected from the Lamma Wrf-Arw Ecm Model. But this is only a forecast to 5 days, very uncertainly:

It's now been 5 days and though we don't have a TC yet. What we do have is an MLC that entered the med last night of the coast of Africa and I assume this is the disturbance that the model picked up on.

The disturbance already showing good rotation in the mid levels and is starting to show signs of a developing LLC just to the north-east of the southern tip Sardinia. The southwesterly wind shear looks to be in the low to moderate range which looks to be the main possible inhibiting factor apart from land interaction. Already looks well on its way to becoming a TD.

Does anyone else think this is a potential candidate for at least a TD?

If someone can post a picture that would be great (sorry I've been looking at a loop and couldn't find any good close ups of even just the med despite Googling)

EDIT: LLC is actually half way between the eastern most edge of Sicily and Africa at very roughly 37.5N 12.0E. there is just a weak eddy at best where i originally had it.

[DanieleItalyRm]

A big storm today but rapidly declining in my opinion:

[Chacor]

No classifications from SAB yet.

[DanieleItalyRm]

No classifications from SAB yet.

what's the SAB?

[Chacor]

The US NOAA Satellite Analysis Branch, which effective 1 September issues satellite intensity bulletins on tropical disturbances in the Med.

[westwind]

This is the latest forecast from ESTOFEX which forcast servere convective weather across europe. The forecast is quite old (released 16:38 mon UTC) but they usually release an update if there is a change in reasoning.

SYNOPSIS

The dominating feature on Tuesday will be the gradually strenghtening ridge and developing omega block over W-CNTRL Europe. A weak mid/upper level disturbance remains almost stationary just offshore Sicily and will be the focus for another round of intense and excessive convective rainfall around Sicily. At surface, a weak cyclone deepens further just south of Sicily. Overnight on Wednesday, it gradually organizes into a rather intense small scale cyclone. WRF model simulates this developing tropical-like system additionally during Wednesday south of Sicily.

ESTOFEX are not official and have this disclamer:

Please note that forecasts produced by ESTOFEX are not warnings of imminent severe weather. Your national meteorological service carries the responsibility to warn you for severe weather. These warnings can be found on meteoalarm.eu.

[DanieleItalyRm]

The distrurbace over the Ionian sea acquired many dry air and sand in the core. Dry air not good for tropical development. This is become dust storm:

[DanieleItalyRm]

This is a minimal disturbance.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[DanieleItalyRm]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Chacor]

Would like to see some enhanced IR shots, but the visibles suggest a fairly shallow system.

[DanieleItalyRm]

It like tropical depression or storm; These clouds will certainly not be low, this being convective clouds and thunderstorms:





Note: the lightning activity it most very high that tropical storm Philippe..



This night just before the landfall:
sea surface +26.5°C