Global model runs discussion

[LarryWx]

**FWIW** (hardly anything that far out....but it has much entertainment value), the 12Z TUE GFS has a classic W. Caribbean hurricane moving over Grand Cayman at 372 hours and then headed NNW toward W. Cuba 10/13 with eyes potentially on S FL. With this being a +AMO La Nina, this scenario is believable. But alas, it is only one model run and it is out two weeks into the future.

Vortex/rainstorm, any comments?

[blp]

Euro MJO forecast is slowly moving closer to our region. It is few days behind the GFS and looks like it might enter our region sometime by the 15th or 16th of October. Just in time for the peak of the W. Carribean area. We probably won't see much on the Euro until next week since that model only goes out 10 days.

EURO Today Saved:


GFS Today Saved:

[LarryWx]

FWIW, the 12Z GFS @384 hrs. Actually starts development near Panama around 208-224hrs. Don't shoot the messenger lol:

Many may want to hug the messenger, but I wouldn't do that on a two week GFS model lol.

[blp]

**FWIW** (hardly anything that far out....but it has much entertainment value), the 12Z TUE GFS has a classic W. Caribbean hurricane moving over Grand Cayman at 372 hours and then headed NNW toward W. Cuba 10/13 with eyes potentially on S FL. With this being a +AMO La Nina, this scenario is believable. But alas, it is only one model run and it is out two weeks into the future.

Vortex/rainstorm, any comments?

I agree. At this point I am not looking for a storm track per say but the fact that the GFS has been forecasting favorable conditions for several runs consistenly and that it should happen in two weeks which conincides with the MJO arriving in the region. I think things are going to pick up that second week of October.

[cycloneye]

Euro MJO forecast is slowly moving closer to our region. It is few days behind the GFS and looks like it might enter our region sometime by the 15th or 16th of October. Just in time for the peak of the W. Carribean area. We probably won't see much on the Euro until next week since that model only goes out 10 days.

EURO Today Saved:
[http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/5306/ecmfphase51msmall.gif

GFS Today Saved:
http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/7352 ... msmall.gif

Lets see if this indicates that finnally the Euro joins GFS on the development bandwagon in the next few days.

[LarryWx]

Dates of the 13 CONUS 10/1-15 H hits during +AMO La Ninas (majors bolded):

10/2, 10/2, 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/5, 10/8, 10/11, 10/12, 10/13, 10/14, 10/15, and 10/15. This suggests that the two biggest threat periods per climo may be 10/2-5 and 10/11-15.

Going back to 1877, there have been only two other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15 during the other 106 seasons!! So, 9 major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only two during the other 106 seasons!!

I'm not predicting anything. I'm just saying that this climo tool says that it wouldn't be surprising to see a H form in the the W. Caribbean and subsequently threaten the U.S. by mid Oct. Don't hug or shoot the messenger lol.

[WeatherEmperor]

18Z GFS @ 336hrs. Hits Central Cuba and heads NE while staying south of the Florida peninsula.....



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[hurricanetrack]

Incredible MJO pulse showing up on the GFS operational for mid-October:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

Will it equal hurricanes? I think we'll have to wait another week to see if the global models begin to react.

[KUEFC]

Can someone post a link to the GFS long range model? thanks in advance

[Dean4Storms]

Here's a page with all of them............


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[HurricaneWarning92]

18Z GFS @ 336hrs. Hits Central Cuba and heads NE while staying south of the Florida peninsula.....

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/5073/gfsl.gif

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That hits Cuba from the east?

[WeatherEmperor]

Today's 12 GFS still shows it at 384hrs or Fantasy Land. Initially develops it around 240+hrs. It keeps delaying development slowly more and more. Is that a sign that it may not happen?



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[hurricanetrack]

Well, at this rate, if it keeps adding a day before it eventually happens, it will be Thanksgiving at the very least. Honestly though, if a week from now, the operational models are NOT showing anything significant for that time frame (2 weeks from now) then I am inclined to think that the monkey is dead and the show's all over.

[cycloneye]

The Euro is needed for a more solid model support,but so far nothing from that one.

[blp]

Today's 12 GFS still shows it at 384hrs or Fantasy Land. Initially develops it around 240+hrs. It keeps delaying development slowly more and more. Is that a sign that it may not happen?

http://img828.imageshack.us/img828/7226/gfsyj.gif[/img]

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Yes, the delayed development is a sign that development is not happening anytime soon. As a matter of fact it has been doing this for almost a week now. This happens a lot from the GFS in that part of the region and in its defense most models out 300+ hours would probably do the same thing, but since the GFS is one of the few that go out that far it gets a reputation for developing phantom storms. You need to use it more as an indicator of the type of pattern that will be setting up. As cycloneye stated earlier if the Euro jumps on it as well then we can pay more attention.

I think once the MJO gets into the Carribean we will see development. There are still many postives out there to keep development down and the MJO might well be the spark that is needed. The Euro is about a week behind the GFS and I would not expect to see anything on the Euro until next week.

[blp]

Incredible MJO pulse showing up on the GFS operational for mid-October:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

Will it equal hurricanes? I think we'll have to wait another week to see if the global models begin to react.

That is indeed quite a strong pulse.

[cycloneye]

If Dr's Klotzbach/Gray are right,we wont see another development until after the 11th of October as they forecast in their two week forecast released today.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 8_2011.pdf

[somethingfunny]

The GFS (and to a degree, the Euro) has been showing this Northwestern Caribbean storm at 300+ hours out for at least 300 hours now lol. While that really diminishes my confidence that the GFS timeline is correct now, it really increases my confidence that SOMETHING will form EVENTUALLY. And likely, something big.

Incredible MJO pulse showing up on the GFS operational for mid-October:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... JO/gfs.gif

Will it equal hurricanes? I think we'll have to wait another week to see if the global models begin to react.

That is indeed quite a strong pulse.

Tonight's 00Z GFS still shows the long range hurricane. It's starting to consolidate around an actual date now, or seems to be. If it does pick a date and stop pushing it back, I think it's a go.

Festering at 180 hours: (October 6)


Nothing pops up until 300 hours: (October 11)


Developing by 324 hours: (October 12)


We're in business at 384: (October 15)

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Nogaps shows something forming in the extreme SW Caribbean @ 180hrs.

Could this be the beginning of other models catching on to development? Even if this is true others have suggested it may be better to see if/when the Euro jumps on board...



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[somethingfunny]

Lmao is that Philippe the NOGAPS is showing in the Bahamas?