Fascinating Info- U.S East Coast in danger

[rob8303]

First, I'm not saying this to say oh look Fabian's going to hit the EC and cause 100 billion dollars damage, I'm posting this for what it is: That Fabian is indeed something to watch very closely, nothing more.
Read this extended discussion courtesy of a poster on another board.
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
244 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003

VALID 12Z WED SEP 03 2003 - 12Z SUN SEP 07 2003

...FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AT
HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE NEXT 8 DAYS. A
STRONG PACIFIC NW RIDGE/POS HEIGHT ANOMALY WILL
MOVE TO S CENTRAL CANADA. THE HIGHER LATITUDE
PORTION OF AN ERN NOAM LONGWAVE TROF DAY 3 WILL
CONSOLIDATE TO THE S OF GREENLAND...WHILE THE
SRN PORTION OF THE TROF GETS LEFT BEHIND OVER
THE LOWER MS VLY.

12Z UPDATE:

NEW 12Z GFS IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE
ECMWF PATTERN S OF 40 DEGREES LATITUDE FROM
THE S CENTRAL STATES INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC. WE
ACCEPT THIS TREND IN PART. OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
RUN IS A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE BECAUSE THE NEW
GFS MAKES SOME BIG CONTINUITY CHANGES FROM ITS
06Z PREDECESSOR IN THE CENTRAL/WRN
PACIFIC...ALSO IN CANADA.

THE PRELIM PACKAGE PREPARED THIS MORNING WAS
MORE COMPLICATED BEYOND THU DAY 4 THAN
YESTERDAYS. FOR DAYS 3-4 WED-THU...WE FOLLOWED
THE 06Z GFS. MODELS DIVERGED DAYS 4-6 ON HOW TO
HANDLE THE 500MB TROF MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS KEEP
THE ENERGY IN THE TROF ABOVE LATITUDE 40
DOMINANT. THE 00Z/31 GFS AND 12Z/30 ECMWF SHEAR
MOST OF THE ENERGY NE INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VLY
REGION...BUT LEAVE A PIECE OF ENERGY BEHIND OVER
THE LOWER MS VLY. THE ECMWF WAS MOST
PROMINENT IN LEAVING THIS SRN PIECE OF ENERGY
BEHIND . THE NEW 06Z/31 GFS TRENDED A BIT TOWARDS
THE 00Z/31 GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IN KEEPING A BIT
MORE UPPER TROF HANGING BACK OVER THE OH RIVER
VLY...BUT NOT AS MUCH TROF OVER THE LOWER MS VLY
AS THE ECMWF.

HOW UPPER MUCH TROF LINGERS OVER THE LOWER MS
VLY INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF SEPT BECOMES
IMPORTANT AS HURCN FABIAN MOVES TO A CRITICAL
POSITION SW OF BERMUDA FRI. AN ECMWF SCENARIO
KEEPING A STRONGER 500MB RIDGE IN THE WRN
ATLANTIC S OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WOULD
ALLOW FABIAN TO CONTINUE ON A MORE WWD COURSE
BEFORE RECURVING TO THE RIGHT...PSBLY
THREATENING THE ERN SEABOARD. THE NEW 12Z GFS IS
TRENDING TOWARDS MORE RIDGE IN THE WRN
ATLANTIC DAYS 5-6...BUT NOT AS MUCH TROF OVER THE
LOWER MS VLY AS THE ECMWF. PLEASE REFER TO NHC
DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING FABIAN.

Thoughts on this?

[ColdFront77]

It is what I have heard from the Melbourne, National Weather Service office this afternoon. A high pressure building toward the Bahamas and Florida Straits is southwest, not eastward.

Also, a high has moved out of southeastern Canada into New York state this afternoon.