ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[dwsqos2]

Erin and Felix of 2001 both degenerated into tropical waves prior to becoming majors.

Mind you, I don't think this one will become a major; but the persistently aggresive Euro runs have been interesting.

[CrazyC83]

29/1145 UTC 20.5N 61.5W T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Supports Hurricane Ophelia, but I would think they would wait for Recon.

[cycloneye]

29/1145 UTC 20.5N 61.5W T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Supports Hurricane Ophelia, but I would think they would wait for Recon.

No Recon for today nor tommorow.

NOUS42 KNHC 291415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM THU 29 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER......11-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[CrazyC83]

29/1145 UTC 20.5N 61.5W T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

Supports Hurricane Ophelia, but I would think they would wait for Recon.

No Recon for today nor tommorow.

NOUS42 KNHC 291415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM THU 29 SEPTEMBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z SEPTEMBER TO 01/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER......11-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

Then I would go up to 65 kt at next advisory.

[Macrocane]

That would be an amazing attainment, from being an extremely sheared system, resurrected from dissipation, then achieving a major status?

where there other hurricanes in record which had that kind of feat?

The 2 majors in 2002 were in a similar situation:
-Isidore became a TD it degenerated and several days later became a cat 3 before hitting the Yucatan peninsula.
-Lili became a tropical storm and degenerated in the southeastern Caribbean, later it became a cat 4 in the northwestern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 61.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

NNNN


TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE
YESTERDAY...AND NOW IT IS VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. I EVEN SUSPECT THAT AN
EYE FEATURE COULD BE FORMING. THE OUTFLOW IS TRYING TO EXPAND
WESTWARD...BUT UPPER-LEVEL HOSTILE WINDS JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE
ARE DISRUPTING IT AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE
INCREASED TO 3.5 AND 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THAT BASIS..THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BUT NOT HOSTILE
ENOUGH TO PREVENT OPHELIA FROM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE END OF
THE DAY...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL LGEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96
HOURS.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.
THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...AND I FACT...IT IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON SO FAR. THE
COMBINATION OF A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWARD
TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS
OPHELIA BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE
TRACK...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS CENTERED WITHIN THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AT THIS
TIME...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH VERY
CLOSE...DOES NOT REACH BERMUDA.

BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41044 THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ONCE AGAIN THESE
BUOYS ARE PROVING TO BE VERY VALUABLE IN TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 20.9N 61.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 22.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 24.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 38.5N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 55.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[bexar]

no Hurricane at 11 AM. 60 KTs

[westwind]

looks like shes trying to form an eye.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

[CrazyC83]

It is sitting near high shear on both sides and still intensifying. Unless Ophelia rapidly weakens later today, the forecast seems awfully conservative to me as there is almost no shear around Bermuda.

[dwsqos2]

http://i55.tinypic.com/106lu9u.jpg

Not bad, not bad at all.

[Macrocane]

Ok, it has an eye but it's not a hurricane yet I smell a special advisory if the trend continues.

[rainstorm]

once storms leave the deep tropics this season they have a chance to develop.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking good to me:

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

Hurricane at 5 PM advisory.

AL, 16, 2011092918, , BEST, 0, 209N, 621W, 65, 987, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[SIMWMBA]

That would be an amazing attainment, from being an extremely sheared system, resurrected from dissipation, then achieving a major status?

where there other hurricanes in record which had that kind of feat?

Frederick (1979) comes to mind

This is a 'healthy' looking TS!

Question for the mets: what has inhibited so many tropical systems this year?
As pointed out many have tracked/meandered 'struggling' through the tropics but once they gain latitude most have then gotten stronger.

[wxman57]

Question for the mets: what has inhibited so many tropical systems this year?
As pointed out many have tracked/meandered 'struggling' through the tropics but once they gain latitude most have then gotten stronger.

I was discussing this with Dr. Phil Klotzbach earlier this week. One of my coworkers was thinking perhaps that warmer-than-normal 700mb (10,000ft) temperatures may have acted as somewhat of a cap. Phil was thinking maybe abundant mid-level dry air was a factor. Certainly, instability has been down all year across the tropics, but we're still not certain what's making the atmosphere more stable.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 62.3W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA STARTING
LATE SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE HAS BEEN
AN EYE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT
THERE IS DEFINITELY A DISTINCT ONE AT THE MID-LEVELS ON EARLIER
MICROWAVE DATA. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED
TO HURRICANE STATUS...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 SEASON.

OPHELIA HAS KICKED OUT THE SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL
LGEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER HURRICANE.
BEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...
AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
96 HOURS OR SOONER.

OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING TO REPORT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT
2 TO 3 DAYS. OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY
AND THEN RECURVE NEAR THE LATITUDE OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BARELY REACHES BERMUDA
AT THIS TIME.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 21.4N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 22.8N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 25.0N 63.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 27.5N 63.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 30.5N 63.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 41.0N 59.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 51.5N 48.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 53.0N 30.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

2011 now is at 16/4/2.

...OPHELIA BECOMES THE FOURTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 62.3W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[Macrocane]

And she did it! Her next goal is to reach cat 2 intensity, although the official forecast calls for a peak intensity of 80 kt.

[AJC3]

Question for the mets: what has inhibited so many tropical systems this year?
As pointed out many have tracked/meandered 'struggling' through the tropics but once they gain latitude most have then gotten stronger.

I was discussing this with Dr. Phil Klotzbach earlier this week. One of my coworkers was thinking perhaps that warmer-than-normal 700mb (10,000ft) temperatures may have acted as somewhat of a cap. Phil was thinking maybe abundant mid-level dry air was a factor. Certainly, instability has been down all year across the tropics, but we're still not certain what's making the atmosphere more stable.

Seeing how vertical instability has clearly been below the climo norm throughout the basin this season, I would think that if mid level dry air was the main (or at least a significant) contributing factor, it would have shown itself more in the WVBT paramaters as warm anomalies. In fact, the opposite seems to be the case - WVBT anomalies have been neutral/negative for the most part, while percentage of cold WVBT pixels has largely been above normal.

Seems to make a case for the H70 temp anomaly argument. It would be interesting to see sounder based H70 temp anomalies for the Atlantic basin from JUN-SEP.

FWIW...I'm basing this on what I see here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html