ATL: OPHELIA - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

That would be an amazing attainment, from being an extremely sheared system, resurrected from dissipation, then achieving a major status?

where there other hurricanes in record which had that kind of feat?

Katrina...kinda.

[bg1]

I think I am getting over the tropical letdown... finally, another well-organized system that actually may strengthen over warm waters (only, what, 2 other such storms?)! Hope it misses Bermuda.

And, yes, it hasn't been a letdown for those in the Caribbean and other places affected this year. I'm sorry if my earlier comment offended anyone. The simple remedy for TL doesn't involve destruction.

[CrazyC83]

I think I am getting over the tropical letdown... finally, another well-organized system that actually may strengthen over warm waters (only, what, 2 other such storms?)! Hope it misses Bermuda.

And, yes, it hasn't been a letdown for those in the Caribbean and other places affected this year. I'm sorry if my earlier comment offended anyone. The simple remedy for TL doesn't involve destruction.

Any members on here from Bermuda? Newfoundland?

[Ptarmigan]

That would be an amazing attainment, from being an extremely sheared system, resurrected from dissipation, then achieving a major status?

where there other hurricanes in record which had that kind of feat?

The 2 majors in 2002 were in a similar situation:
-Isidore became a TD it degenerated and several days later became a cat 3 before hitting the Yucatan peninsula.
-Lili became a tropical storm and degenerated in the southeastern Caribbean, later it became a cat 4 in the northwestern Caribbean.

Isidore was forecasted to hit New Orleans as a major hurricane I remember. Had Isidore hit New Orleans as a major....................... Lili intensified and weakened quickly in the Gulf of Mexico. Ophelia under went resurrection.

[Ptarmigan]

Cat 2 per SHIPS at that rate if it still intensifies more?

Could be. You never know. We still have a long way in predicting intensification.

[CrazyC83]

Now up to 70 kt. How strong will Ophelia get? Shear decreases as it goes northward.

[CrazyC83]

29/2245 UTC 21.1N 61.8W T4.0/4.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It doesn't seem likely that Ophelia will strengthen much more in the next 6 to 8 hours (maybe 5 knots). The eye feature opened up on CIMSS, but it appears one tried to pop out on IR (not very well defined, could of just been dry air...or a banding type eye feature). After that, Ophelia may make another jump up in intensity tonight/tomorrow (starting around 2 am or so). I predict a peak of 90 to 95 knots tomorrow afternoon/night, but keeping below the >30 knot threshold of rapid intensification.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, I don't see any signs of rapid intensification, but significant strengthening later this afternoon and into tonight seems likely to occur...probably on the order of 20 to 25 knots through tomorrow morning (RI is >30 knots in 24 hours). Thinking maybe 70 or 75 knots by 8 am tomorrow morning.

This still seems pretty much on track. Ophelia might hit 80 knots by tomorrow morning, but not sure of that...depends on what happens tonight. The Best Track at 8 am (right after this was posted) updated to 60 knots, but really the 20 to 25 knots was based off of the 50 knots the NHC had for 2 am.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Up to 70kts.

AL, 16, 2011093000, , BEST, 0, 214N, 621W, 70, 982, HU

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

It doesn't seem likely that Ophelia will strengthen much more in the next 6 to 8 hours (maybe 5 knots). The eye feature opened up on CIMSS, but it appears one tried to pop out on IR (not very well defined, could of just been dry air...or a banding type eye feature). After that, Ophelia may make another jump up in intensity tonight/tomorrow (starting around 2 am or so). I predict a peak of 90 to 95 knots tomorrow afternoon/night, but keeping below the >30 knot threshold of rapid intensification.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Well, I don't see any signs of rapid intensification, but significant strengthening later this afternoon and into tonight seems likely to occur...probably on the order of 20 to 25 knots through tomorrow morning (RI is >30 knots in 24 hours). Thinking maybe 70 or 75 knots by 8 am tomorrow morning.

This still seems pretty much on track. Ophelia might hit 80 knots by tomorrow morning, but not sure of that...depends on what happens tonight. The Best Track at 8 am (right after this was posted) updated to 60 knots, but really the 20 to 25 knots was based off of the 50 knots the NHC had for 2 am.

I just want to say that my indicator did appear earlier, which would support RI later tonight into tomorrow (starting at about 12 am), and an intensity of about 100 to 105 knots (70 + 30 = 100)...but I did not feel comfortable enough to go that high when I made my forecast earlier. I thought the environment would help keep Ophelia in check enough to be slightly lower than the 30 knots in 24 hours, which is why I chose the 90 to 95 knots, instead.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 62.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA STARTING
LATE SATURDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN


HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

OPHELIA IS STRENGTHENING WITH AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT
ON BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME TILT ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...A SOLID EYEWALL
HAS FORMED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM
SAB/TAFB...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...THE INITIAL
WINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FETCH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
HEADED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL INSIST
THAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DIVERTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF
THE HURRICANE AND NOT IMPACT OPHELIA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. SINCE THE WATERS STAY WARM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS AND
BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST
DECREASING SHEAR VALUE...THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ONE.. THE NEW FORECAST IS BELOW THE HWRF/GFDL
CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOW THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS IN A FEW DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO REPORT IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND BENDING
TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE NHC FORECAST
DURING THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
AFTER RECURVATURE...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
LEFTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTER DAY 2 AND IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
OPHELIA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 21.9N 62.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 23.2N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 25.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 28.8N 63.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 32.8N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 43.5N 58.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 52.0N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[bexar]

75 KTs now, 979

would peak as a 90 KT storm basing on this forecast

[cycloneye]

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 62.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[CrazyC83]

Note the NHC mentions some models make Ophelia a major...

[Buck]

By the end of Ophelia and Philippe's runs, this year's ACE should be at least in the low to mid 90s.

[Macrocane]

A much better defined eye is now present, may be a cat 2 already. In the next 24 hours it may become our 3rd major this season. This is just an unofficial opinion.

[bexar]

now at 80 KTS, 976.

an small eye is now visible.

[dwsqos2]

30/0545 UTC 21.9N 62.5W T5.0/5.0 OPHELIA -- Atlantic

SAB's at T5.0.

[bexar]

nrl puts it at 85 KTs



healthy looking storm, big improvements from yesterday. Wouldn't surprised me if she could go for 100 KTs in the next 12 hours. It's really puzzling how some systems intensify even though conditions are hostile.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Core temp looks just about text-book now with max anomaly at 12km, 3C.

Judging that there is a mid-level PV anomaly that hasn't made its way to the surface yet, and convection is firing right over the LLC; IMHO strengthening should continue.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL162011&starting_image=2011AL16_4KMSRBDC_201109300045.jpg