WPAC: NALGAE - Tropical Depression
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LATEST FROM JMA:
TY 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 September 2011
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°40'(17.7°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
TY 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 30 September 2011
<Analyses at 30/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N17°40'(17.7°)
E126°30'(126.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 30/21 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E123°35'(123.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 01/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(16kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 02/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)
<Forecast for 03/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°35'(17.6°)
E112°30'(112.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Typhoon
I actually think it its now getting there...if you know what I mean...
saved
from PAGASA sat image
saved
from PAGASA sat image
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Typhoon
I bet this one is going to be stronger than Nesat (Nesat peaked as a Cat3, right?)
Well I don't know if it's bad to be fascinated by this storm when people in the northern provinces might get pounded again. But the beauty of this storm right now is undeniable. I guess I'm the only one seeing these things happen at this very moment.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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90 kt from JMA at 12z. 15z warning due in about 15 minutes.
WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.5N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 190NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 17.2N 119.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 021200UTC 17.3N 115.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 031200UTC 17.4N 111.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
WTPQ22 RJTD 301200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1119 NALGAE (1119)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 301200UTC 17.5N 125.8E GOOD
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 190NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 011200UTC 17.2N 119.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 16KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 021200UTC 17.3N 115.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 031200UTC 17.4N 111.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =
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15Z update from PAGASA:
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "QUIEL"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 30 September 2011 Typhoon "QUIEL" has intensified further and seriously threatens Cagayan-Isabela as it moves closer.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 340 kms East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.3°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
Gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:
120 kms West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Sunday evening:
720 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Cagayan
Isabela
Northern Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Ifugao
Mt. Province
Kalinga
Apayao
Abra
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Rest of Aurora
Nueva Ecija
Pangasinan
Benguet
La Union
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Calayan Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Bulacan
Pampanga
Tarlac
Zambales
Batanes
Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "QUIEL"
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Friday, 30 September 2011 Typhoon "QUIEL" has intensified further and seriously threatens Cagayan-Isabela as it moves closer.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 340 kms East of Tuguegarao City
Coordinates: 17.3°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
Gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: Forecast to move West at 26 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday evening:
120 kms West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Sunday evening:
720 km West of Sinait, Ilocos Sur
Signal No.3
(100-185 kph winds)
Cagayan
Isabela
Northern Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Vizcaya
Ifugao
Mt. Province
Kalinga
Apayao
Abra
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Rest of Aurora
Nueva Ecija
Pangasinan
Benguet
La Union
Ilocos Norte
Ilocos Sur
Calayan Group of Is.
Babuyan Group of Is.
Signal No. 1
(45-60 kph winds)
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island
Bulacan
Pampanga
Tarlac
Zambales
Batanes
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15Z update from JMA:
TY 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 30 September 2011
<Analyses at 30/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N350km(190NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 01/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E119°00'(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E111°25'(111.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
TY 1119 (NALGAE)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 30 September 2011
<Analyses at 30/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°25'(17.4°)
E124°55'(124.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N350km(190NM)
S280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 01/03 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E122°00'(122.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 01/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E119°00'(119.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)
<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E115°00'(115.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)
<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E111°25'(111.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)
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Lastest sat pic. shows very impressive CDO and eye. Still tracking SW. Sorry can't get cut and paste. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
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Re:
Dave C wrote:Lastest sat pic. shows very impressive CDO and eye. Still tracking SW. Sorry can't get cut and paste. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html
I've got you covered.
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NOTICE: I cannot give an expert analysis. Most of my "observations" are made visually with the help of only vital information provided by public advisories.
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Re:
oaba09 wrote:we just can't get a break..
metro manila now under signal #1....The only good thing is the fact that this is a fast moving system and relatively small compared to Nesat...
Signal #1 is highest or lowest signal?
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 16:49:55 N Lon : 122:50:17 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934.2mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -54.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 SEP 2011 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 16:49:55 N Lon : 122:50:17 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 934.2mb/124.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -54.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.8C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 115km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.1 degrees
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Re: WPAC: NALGAE - Typhoon
CrazyC83 wrote:
Signal #1 is highest or lowest signal?
Lowest storm warning signal, at least TD-force winds are expected. As of now the sky is dark but no rains yet.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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