Global model runs discussion

[HURRICANELONNY]

I read that to AJ. Miami discussion looks at one run that night and backed off. Need more continuity to say "backed off". I think something will happen off the coast. But when and where is up in the air. October can be an interesting month. As well as a weird Hurricane season.

[Blown Away]

IMO, we are seeing the signs of something brewing over the NW Caribbean.

[CourierPR]

IMO, we are seeing the signs of something brewing over the NW Caribbean.

Bastardi tweets that the seeds are being planted in the pattern for tropical trouble for Florida this weekend and beyond.

[KUEFC]

IMO, we are seeing the signs of something brewing over the NW Caribbean.

Bastardi tweets that the seeds are being planted in the pattern for tropical trouble for Florida this weekend and beyond.

Doesnt he always though?

[jlauderdal]

IMO, we are seeing the signs of something brewing over the NW Caribbean.

Bastardi tweets that the seeds are being planted in the pattern for tropical trouble for Florida this weekend and beyond.

on the lookout from our perch in sofla

[KUEFC]

Silly question i guess, but have models ever been wrong?

[cycloneye]

12z CMC starts to develop in Western Caribbean.



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[HurricaneFan]

I know it might be late,but does the models do anything with the Huge,strongly sheared Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands?:)

[cycloneye]

I know it might be late,but does the models do anything with the Huge,strongly sheared Tropical Wave SW of the Cape Verde Islands?:)

I haven't seen a consensus by the global models at this time to develop something east of the Lesser Antilles.

[LarryWx]

IMO, we are seeing the signs of something brewing over the NW Caribbean.

Bastardi tweets that the seeds are being planted in the pattern for tropical trouble for Florida this weekend and beyond.

JB could be heard in the background singing to the tune of "Bringing in the Sheaves" the following that he wrote: "Ridging in the east, ridging in the east, We shall come rejoicing, ridging in the east." From his daily videos, longtime JB subscribers should remember this. During hurricane season when there was persistent, strong eastern US ridging, he would sometimes sing this because it seemed to me to be his favorite pattern since it tended to make things more interesting for the east coast since recurves would be prevented. You could tell it put him in a good mood lol.

[Stormcenter]

All season......hey I guess he's gotting keep people interested.

IMO, we are seeing the signs of something brewing over the NW Caribbean.

Bastardi tweets that the seeds are being planted in the pattern for tropical trouble for Florida this weekend and beyond.

Doesnt he always though?

[Stormcenter]

Nah.....................

Silly question i guess, but have models ever been wrong?

[KUEFC]

Nah.....................

Silly question i guess, but have models ever been wrong?

Haha do i sense a little sarcasm there?

[bg1]

Silly question i guess, but have models ever been wrong?

I remember some time ago one of the models were saying 5 storms will form in the Eastern Pacific within 8 days.

The models predicted Irene would be around 930 mb off the coast of North Carolina. Earlier, they all had it moving through Florida, then they changed to Charleston (I had a feeling that was going to change).

The intensity models last year predicted 150 mph for Gaston 5 days out at one time (ended up dissipating before then) and another model predicted 905 mb for Fiona (only off by 93 mb ).

The models failed to predict 2 early storms in the Atlantic this year, and usually do terrible predicting formation in the subtropics.

When there is a well-organized storm, track-wise, and there is a lot of upper-atmospheric data (like when the planes sampled the atmosphere ahead of Irene) the models are usually reliable, but predicting intensity is still difficult even with data.

[cycloneye]

Todays 12z Euro has nasty weather over Florida Penninsula in 144 hours.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z CMC, Nogaps and GFS show development of a TD/TS in the SW Caribbean:

12Z CMC:


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12Z Nogaps:


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12Z GFS:


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[WeatherEmperor]

12Z Euro shows no Caribbean development but does develop a TD/TS near the Bahamas/FL Straights and rides it up the west coast of FL near Naples/Ft. Myers. The 12Z GFS does hint at something similar but not as pronounced (in regards to the FL west coast solution):



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[Steve H.]

From the 3:29 Melbourne FL discussion

THU-MON...BRISK ENE TO EAST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEEK AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS MID ATLC/NE SEABOARD SLOWLY
MOVES EWD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE DUE TO ONSHORE
TRAJECTORY.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SIGNIFICANT
AND LONG LASTING BAROCLINIC OR POSSIBLE SUBTROPICAL LOW FORMATION
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE FL/BAHAMAS/GREATER ANTILLES NEXT WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY SLIDING INTO THE SERN H50 TROUGH
COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NERN CONUS PLACES ERN NOAM
INTO A REX BLOCK TYPE CONFIGURATION WITH A LOW LATITUDE H50 CUTOFF
LOW EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INVOF 26-29N.

BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED SFC PRES FALLS LIKELY BENEATH AND ON THE EAST
(ASCENDING) SIDE OF THE LOW WL LIKELY PRODUCE A LONG PERIOD OF
SIGNIFICANT ONSHORE WINDS COUPLED WITH IMPACTING SWELL AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FEATURE ONCE
ESTABLISHED WILL LIKELY PERSIST POSSIBLY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.

[NDG]

The ECMWF has been fairly persistent for some sort of a hybrid subtropical system to form near the FL straights this weekend. To go up near the west coast or east coast of FL is the only inconsistency that I see as the 12z runs of both today and yesterday has it going north in the eastern GOM while last night's run has it going up near the east coast. Very wet weekend into early next week for the FL Peninsula is at least a good possibility.

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest MJO forecast that continues to show eastward propagation towards the EPAC and Caribbean.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... -03-11.pdf

The forecast MJO phase favors continued above-average precipitation for the Northwest quarter of the U.S. including parts of California during much of the period and enhances the threat for tropical cyclogenesis for the western Caribbean Sea during Week-2.