Global model runs discussion

[rainstorm]

JB is looking at the models and has tweeted:

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Siege of tropical threats to start this weekend. Fla 1st problem spot but next 2-3 weeks development in close to US,some impact likely
20 minutes ago

[AdamFirst]

Melbourne AFD is calling for a largely unsettled patten starting on Thursday with a strong onshore flow. Then it mentions this possible system for the weekend.

Could all this be a flooding concern for the east coast of Florida?

[AJC3]

Melbourne AFD is calling for a largely unsettled patten starting on Thursday with a strong onshore flow. Then it mentions this possible system for the weekend.

Could all this be a flooding concern for the east coast of Florida?

The showers should be light to moderate and intermittent during the late week through Saturday. From Sunday onward is when the heaviest rain threat should be, especially for the east coast.

[KUEFC]

AJC is the fact that you think my flight will be fine due to the fact they don't forecast the L until the Sunday, things seem to keep changing which is confusing me a little.

[SFLcane]

CPC now giving a (high chance) for tropical cyclone development down in caribbean...

[KUEFC]

This is what i am not understanding if i am honest, this is Sundays forecast for the orlando area from NWS:

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 5 and 15 mph

does that really tie into what is being predicted?

[AJC3]

AJC is the fact that you think my flight will be fine due to the fact they don't forecast the L until the Sunday, things seem to keep changing which is confusing me a little.

Well, yes...sort of. The weather shouldn't be as bad Saturday compared to Sunday. But even so, This whole event doesn't look like something that would actually result in canceled flights on Sunday either.

[AJC3]

This is what i am not understanding if i am honest, this is Sundays forecast for the orlando area from NWS:

Sunday: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind between 5 and 15 mph

does that really tie into what is being predicted?

Defnitely not mostly sunny...LOL. I'd expect you'll see rain chances go up for this weekend and Monday as we get later in the week. The reason rain chances aren't higher at the moment is we're talking days 5-6.

[KUEFC]

Cheers, i would never ever make a weather expert, this is just nuts lol, and its not like Joe Bastardi to jump on an already moving train is it?

Question open to anyone really, but i keep hearing about October cold fronts dropping down and taking everything away, so whats to say this doesnt happen next week? as i say i really have no clue about it all really, but learning tiny bits day by day.

[AdamFirst]

Interesting that the 6z GFS develops a system in the eastern Bahamas sending it west rather in the Straits or the Northwestern Caribbean...

Barely anything there according to the GFS. Weak reflection.

[N2FSU]

From the Tallahassee NWS discussion this morning:

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED AROUND
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME SORT OF SUBTROPICAL LOW IN
THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE
ECMWF WAS ONE OF THE FIRST MODELS TO DEVELOP SUCH A LOW...AND FOR
NOW IT SEEMS TO BE PRESENTING ONE OF THE MORE CREDIBLE SOLUTIONS.

THE MECHANISMS FOR THE GENESIS OF THIS SUBTROPICAL LOW (AS FORECAST
BY THE NUMERICAL MODELS) REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM LAST NIGHT.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN FAIR ABUNDANCE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND WSW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN
STRAIT. THE TSTMS IN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS ARE ALSO IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 60-80 KT UPPER LEVEL JET THAT CURLS NORTH
AROUND THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE NE CONUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN SOME FORM THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SLOWLY FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURE AND MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS FORECAST
MORE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAKE PLACE WITH A CLOSED SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE INITIALLY BETWEEN 20N AND 25N. THE AREA WILL
REMAIN SQUARELY WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK...AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PUSHING INTO THE AREA WILL HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO A BROAD AREA OF LOWER HEIGHTS AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN
THE MID LEVELS. BASICALLY THERE WILL BE A HANDFUL OF FACTORS
FAVORING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND THE MAINTENANCE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS. PINPOINTING THE AREA WHERE THINGS COME TOGETHER MOST
FAVORABLY IS RATHER DIFFICULT AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE OVERALL FORECAST
IS FOR THE GENESIS OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW THIS WEEKEND...WITH A SLOW
MIGRATION TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY NORTH.

THE HPC PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION ONCE AGAIN OFFERS
GOOD ANALYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM...AND OFFERS SEVERAL ANALOGS TO PAST
CASES. THE BEST ANALOG IN TERMS OF THE RESEMBLANCE TO FORECAST
PRESSURE AND HEIGHT PATTERNS SEEMS TO BE THE MAY 19-21 2009 GULF
LOW...WITH THINGS IN THIS CASE PERHAPS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST. ONE
THING THAT WAS NOT PRESENT IN THAT EVENT WAS 28-30C WATER TEMPS
WHICH COULD AID THE GENESIS AND ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW THIS TIME.

[CourierPR]

Bastardi indicates that there will be two to three weeks of trouble with this coming pattern setup.

[KUEFC]

But again, whose to say this pattern will stay in place for 2 to 3 weeks? it is October after all, surely it would be more likely for florida to see another cold snap, rather than this same pattern staying rooted for 3 weeks.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I don't know if anyone posted this from Dr. Jeff Masters site:

A Florida tropical storm next week?
Recent runs by all of the computer forecast models predict that an area of low pressure will develop near Florida this weekend or early next week. The counter-clockwise flow around this low will bring strong winds and heavy rains to Northeast Florida and the Georgia coast, and it is possible this storm will develop into a tropical or subtropical storm. The situation is similar to Subtropical Storm Four of October 4, 1974, according to the latest extended forecast discussion from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center. That storm brought 10 - 14 inches of rain to the east coast of Florida and strong onshore winds of 30 - 40 mph that caused beach erosion and coastal flooding. The exact formation location of this weekend's storm is still in doubt, with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting the storm will form in the Gulf of Mexico off the west coast of Florida, and the GFS model predicting formation over the Bahamas. We'll have to wait for future model runs before we can get a better handle on where and when this storm will most likely develop.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z GFS shows development similar to last night's Euro. I can't tell the exact spot where it develops but it looks like the GFS develops it off the west coast of FL and moves it inland as a TS in the FL Panhandle:

171hrs:


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192hrs:


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Now we have to wait for the CMC and especially the Euro to see what solutions they show...

[CourierPR]

The NAM at 84 hours has a low in the FL Straits.

[cycloneye]

The latest two week forecast by CPC of the MJO favorable pulse:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/



Global Tropical Hazards Outlook Discussion
Last Updated: 10.04.11 Valid: 10.05.11 - 10.18.11


For Week-1, enhanced convection is forecast from the South China Sea into the western Pacific and suppressed convection is favored from India across the eastern Indian Ocean to Indonesia primarily associated with the MJO. tropical cyclone Nalgae is expected to result in heavy rainfall very early in the period across parts of southeast Asia. Tropical cyclone development remains a threat east of the Philippines as the enhanced phase of the MJO exits this region. The MJO favors tropical development in the eastern Pacific and enhanced rainfall across portions of Central America and northern South America during this period. A frontal boundary and general low pressure favors enhanced rainfall for the Bahamas and parts of the Caribbean islands and Florida and increases the threat for tropical devlopment north of Cuba in close proximity to Florida during Week-1. Model forecast guidance continues to favor above-average rainfall for areas in west central Africa.

The area of suppressed convection in the eastern hemisphere is forecast to shift eastward and encompass the Maritime continent and begin to impact the western Pacific. Later during Week-2, there is some potential for convection to increase across east central Africa and the western Indian Ocean ahead of the next enhanced convective phase of the MJO. During Week-2, the MJO signal continues the threat for tropical cyclone development in the eastern Pacific and enhanced rainfall in the Americas as well as increases the chances of tropical cyclone development in the western Caribbean Sea.

For local U.S. interests, the forecast MJO phase would favor continued potential for above-average precipitation for the Northwest quarter of the U.S. during much of the period including parts of California. The MJO also increases the threat for tropical cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean Sea during Week-2 and if development occurs the Southeast U.S. should monitor for a potential track to the north and east.

[bigdan35]

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[KUEFC]

On the ecmwf website it shows a big yellow blob over florida on saturday, what is this? It has no green bits in it if that helps lol

[cycloneye]

From HPC afternoon discussion:

DAILY COORDINATION WITH THE NHC RESULTED IN
AGREEMENT TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL ORIGIN IN
VICINITY OF CUBA/SOUTH FLORIDA FOR DAYS 6/7. ALTHOUGH SOLUTION
SPREAD IS EXTREMELY HIGH WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM...CONTINUITY
FOR ITS FORMATION FROM YESTERDAY'S MODELS IS GOOD WITH EVEN MORE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS NOW ON-BOARD. THE
BROAD NATURE OF ITS DEPICTION IS DUE TO THE VERY HIGH SPREAD WITH
WHERE TO POSITION THE LOW WITH THE FINAL PROGS REPRESENTATIVE OF A
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BLEND.

JAMES