KUEFC wrote:Can any pro mets please reassure me with regard to saturday please? Things seem to have moved forward to what they where would be devestated if my flight was cancelled

As a potential genesis candidate for a tropical cyclone, this somewhat typical fall "transitional" set up is both interesting & challenging to both Meteorologists and enthusiasts alike. If and when this low should acquire more warm core characteristics and perhaps deepen a little, I could see the potential for a moderate to strong tropical storm to possibly impact the Northern Gulf Coast (probably Fla. Panhandle to Apalachicola region) with significant rains over a broader area of Central/N. Florida, then spreading NNE'ward. I am certainly not downplaying possible flooding or isolated wind impact that may well occur elsewhere.
That said however......, I don't think anyone in or coming to South Florida should get their pants in a bunch over this "big event". Yes, small boaters will be best advised to probably keep it on the dinghy and Yes, we may pick up a solid 2"-6" of rain here locally. Rip tides, perhaps a little beach erosion....hey maybe 2 or 3 ( very isolated spots ) "might" experience a gust to near 45mph! I am not downplaying these likely conditions, and in fact am an enthusiast who loves bad weather. I'm checking these same forum boards 2-3 times a day because, well...like many here, thats what i'm into as well. All I am saying is: whatever evolves from THIS possible cyclogenesis, I can nearly guarantee conditions in S. Florida will NOT approach anything that would shut schools, cause work stoppages, freeze our airports, cause homeowners to put up shutters, or end life as we know it, etc.
Those concerned may now take a deep breath and repeat after me: "Baroclinic blustery blobs behave like big colicky babies, but seldom break things". What may follow in about 10 days could be another story and may be the third such type system to come out of the W. Caribbean this fall ( based on the 12Z GFS anyways ). Not too early to speculate, but way too early to worry.