Global model runs discussion

#3101 Postby **xironman** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 2:55 pm

I don't know, a couple of months from now I would be calling this a Miller A. Maybe it could take on tropical characteristics, but would not hold my breath.

#3102 Postby **SootyTern** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:03 pm

KUEFC wrote:Only problem is i am going to Orlando and not south florida lol

Are you taking the family to Disneyworld for a long-anticipated trip? Like said before, the world won't end but the weather might be less than desireable while you are there, depending on your dates. You can monitor the local forecast here, among other sites:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/

#3103 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:04 pm

Melbourne AFD from this afternoon

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
344 PM EDT WED OCT 5 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND MARINE EVENT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE 05/12Z GFS FORECAST HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE
MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF IN HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INDUCES DROPPING SFC PRESSURES OVER
THE FL STRAITS/BAHAMAS/CUBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN EVEN
FURTHER AS A RESULT WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND BREEZY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THEN AS ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE WEAK BOUNDARY ARRIVES
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. RIGHT NOW HAVE
BROUGHT RAIN CHANCES TO 40-50 PERCENT...AND WILL LIKELY GO HIGHER AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND AND MODELS CONVERGE ON THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE A LITTLE BETTER WITH
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT FOR THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MODIFIED PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HYBRID TYPE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING VICINITY FLORIDA STRAITS AND LIFTING NORTHWEST
TO NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS SHOWS THE LOW
HUGGING THE EAST COAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST...BUT OVERALL THEY ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

THE EXACT DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN BUT EITHER
MODEL DEPICTS A SOLUTIONS WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDY CONDITIONS
AND MINOR BEACH EROSION ARE EXPECTED FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THESE SYSTEMS ARE ALSO
NOTORIOUS FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

#3104 Postby **LarryWx** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:38 pm

Folks,
The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Also, upper levels appear to me to be warm enough by then and upper winds conducive enough to support a TC.

Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase.

Edit: *Fwiw*, further into this run into fantasyland, there is a hurricane hit on SW FL on 10/20. Wow! This run should wake people up! Two US TC hits within a 10 day period!! Don't hug or shoot the messenger.

#3105 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:54 pm

LarryWx wrote:Folks,
The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Also, upper levels appear to me to be warm enough by then and upper winds conducive enough to support a TC.

Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase.

Edit: *Fwiw*, further into this run into fantasyland, there is a hurricane hit on SW FL on 10/20. Wow! This run should wake people up! Two US TC hits within a 10 day period!! Don't hug or shoot the messenger.

Here is the loop of this 18z GFS run.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

#3106 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:57 pm

12Z ECMWF still with low over eastern Gulf moving northward toward the eastern Panhandle.

YouTube · #3107 Postby **hurricanetrack** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:11 pm

Wonder which it will be- east side of FL or west side? Place your bets now!

Interesting though that 2 out of the last 4 runs of the GFS has it east of FL and stronger overall. We won't even talk about that issue of the last few frames out beyond 300 hours....let's get through this dealio first. Interesting days ahead.

Florida1118 · #3108 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:14 pm

TWC has a "Tropics Watch" up for Tampa on Monday, and rain chances have been bumped up 60-80% here on some non-NWS sites. Indeed, interesting days ahead.

#3109 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:36 pm

Local mets spinning this as a potential heavy rain event for now.

That graphic depicts 7 inches of rain over the immediate coastline.

This is also back on for the local area.

Florida1118 · #3110 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:40 pm

What is this, the 4th or 5th time weve gotten a Tropics Watch in Florida?

sunnyday · #3111 Postby **sunnyday** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:57 pm

AdamFirst,
When did John Matthews on Ch. 12 show that graphic about watching the tropics on Monday? 8-)

sunnyday · #3112 Postby **sunnyday** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:59 pm

I meant to ask, Adam, how far south on Florida's east coast is supposed to get the 7 inches of rain?
Thanks.... 8-)

#3113 Postby **FLCrackerGirl** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:41 pm

sunnyday, John Matthews had that graphic up on the 5pm news this evening.

bamajammer4eva · #3114 Postby **bamajammer4eva** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 7:45 pm

Tropics Watch for the PC Beach area too for Monday 8-)

sunnyday · #3115 Postby **sunnyday** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:12 pm

Thank you for the info, FlCracker Girl. 8-)

floridasun78 · #3116 Postby **floridasun78** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:46 pm

so their forcasting 7 inch rain on east coast fl? we could see flood watch issue if that happen

floridasun78 · #3117 Postby **floridasun78** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:49 pm

i see on webcam from miami beach it very windy and wave are growing http://www.everysunrise.com/ecommerce/miamiwebcam.php

T'Bonz · #3118 Postby **T'Bonz** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:33 pm

My area (Fort Lauderdale suburbs) also has the "Watching the tropics" notice, for Monday.

#3119 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 11:43 pm

00z GFS shows a closed low forming over the Gulf Stream around Andros Island at 84 hours, drifting north-northwestward with slow development.
Goes nowhere fast with the low degenerating off the coast of Jacksonville at 144 hours.

bexar · #3120 Postby **bexar** » Thu Oct 06, 2011 12:18 am

for a supposedly La Nina year, the cmc develops 4 storms in the EPAC within the next 10 days. Shouldn't the EPAC be already inactive this time around in a La Nina year?

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