EPAC: IRWIN - Post - Tropical

[Kingarabian]

NHC_ATCF
invest_ep972011.invest
FSTDA
R
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040
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201110050501
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 97, 2011, DB, O, 2011100500, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP972011
EP, 97, 2011100400, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1083W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2011100412, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1109W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2011100418, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1117W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 97, 2011100500, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1130W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

Epac is still spittin em' out.

[cycloneye]

50%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ARE SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS LOW COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

70%


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Hurricanehink]

That MJO burst is pretty strong and well on its way to the Atlantic! Just see how busy the EPAC has gotten.

[cycloneye]

Up to 80%

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 925 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONTINUE TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Chacor]

TCFA:

WTPN21 PHNC 051930
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
245 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 113.9W TO 13.9N 121.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
051900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N
114.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
114.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 114.7W, APPROXIMATELY 730 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH HAVE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATED AS CENTRAL CONVECTION DEEPENED. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO DEPICTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INCLUDING
THE LATEST IMAGE, A 051350Z SSMIS PASS SHOWING FORMATIVE BANDING TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF A FAIRLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROXIMATELY 7 DEGREES
TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTLFLOW
WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 22-27 KNOTS AND THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
061930Z.//

[Kingarabian]

Back to back hurricanes this late in the season.... Not bad considering were in La Nina.

[Chacor]

97E is the only INVEST number yet to produce at least a numbered cyclone this year. If this forms, it will be our first TD of the year from a 97E.

[lilybeth]

Two side by side (almost) in the EPAC. Are there any models available to share yet?

[bexar]

now TD ELEVEN-E. The EPAC is still open for business.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN A CYCLONICALLY
CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY
IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLOW STRENGTHENING.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH. THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD TURN IS INDICATED IN THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS COMBINES THIS
CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AND MOVES THE ENTIRE COMPLEX
SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 11.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 13.0N 118.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 14.0N 119.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 16.0N 119.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KMIA 061241
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1241 UTC THU OCT 6 2011

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN (EP112011) 20111006 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
111006 1200 111007 0000 111007 1200 111008 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 116.6W 12.9N 117.8W 13.3N 118.7W 13.7N 119.5W
BAMD 12.3N 116.6W 12.9N 118.1W 13.4N 119.4W 14.0N 120.4W
BAMM 12.3N 116.6W 12.8N 118.0W 13.3N 119.0W 13.7N 119.8W
LBAR 12.3N 116.6W 12.8N 117.8W 13.7N 118.8W 14.8N 120.0W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
111008 1200 111009 1200 111010 1200 111011 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 120.1W 13.0N 119.4W 13.8N 110.8W 17.1N 101.7W
BAMD 14.3N 121.2W 14.6N 122.5W 16.2N 122.7W 19.3N 121.4W
BAMM 13.8N 120.4W 13.6N 121.0W 15.0N 119.7W 17.3N 117.3W
LBAR 15.7N 120.7W 17.7N 120.9W 20.9N 119.7W 24.3N 116.6W
SHIP 52KTS 48KTS 43KTS 39KTS
DSHP 52KTS 48KTS 43KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 116.6W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 115.8W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 11.7N LONM24 = 114.1W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 40NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to TS status.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
800 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND
WRAPPING ABOUT HALFWAY AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 2.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN
INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER IRWIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTIALLY
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE NOT FAR TO THE
EAST. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...FOLLOWING THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.

LATEST CENTER FIXES REQUIRE A SLIGHT RELOCATION TO THE EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE NORTH OF IRWIN. THIS CHANGE
IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SINCE ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE SITUATED 7 TO 10
DEGREES TO THE EAST...SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
PROBABLE. AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IRWIN TO
TRAIL THE NEIGHBORING CYCLONE AS THE LATTER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
MEXICAN COAST. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE TWO
CYCLONES WILL MOVE MORE IN TANDEM TOWARD THE COAST...AS SUGGESTED
BY RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 12.4N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 12.7N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 13.0N 117.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 13.5N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 13.8N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 14.0N 117.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 15.5N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Now Irwin for sure. Could follow 10E/Jova towards Mexico.

[Epsilon_Fan]

crikey, he's gonna hit 10-E

[cycloneye]

Irwin intensifying.

06/1800 UTC 12.5N 117.6W T3.0/3.0 IRWIN -- East Pacific

[Extratropical94]

Yep, intensifying - now 60 mph

EP, 11, 2011100618, , BEST, 0, 126N, 1175W, 50, 997, TS

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112011
200 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011

WELL...SO MUCH FOR THE SLOW STRENGTHENING THAT WAS FORECAST IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IRWIN HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME
BETTER-DEFINED AND IS EXPANDING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT...IN
COMPARISON TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE
EAST...IRWIN IS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. THIS IMPLIES THAT THE
CIRCULATION OF THE EASTERN CYCLONE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN ADVERSE
IMPACT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRWIN STRENGTHENING
INTO A HURRICANE. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AND TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR
295/7...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF IRWIN IS FORECAST TO RETREAT AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN...IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TOWARD THE RIGHT AND DECELERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IRWIN SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD MEXICO IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS
IS BETWEEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.8N 117.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.9N 118.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 13.6N 118.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 117.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[bg1]

So now the craziness shifts to the Eastern Pacific. If Irwin and Jova both become hurricanes, that will put the season at 10/9/4. There has only been one season since 1998 with 9 or more hurricanes: 2006, and that was an El Nino.

Is there a possibility that they may combine into one storm?