ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al932011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201110091821
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011100918, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011
AL, 93, 2011100818, , BEST, 0, 240N, 770W, 35, 1011, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100900, , BEST, 0, 250N, 773W, 35, 1010, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100906, , BEST, 0, 260N, 778W, 35, 1009, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100912, , BEST, 0, 268N, 785W, 35, 1008, SS, 34, NEQ, 225, 250, 0, 0,
AL, 93, 2011100918, , BEST, 0, 274N, 794W, 35, 1007, SS

Thread at Talking Tropics that was topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=112044&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[NDG]

Lets see what the models say, BTW, the lowest pressure I see now with the low pressure center that has formed east of Ft Pierce is around 1008mb, and that is out of coastal pressure readings, so pressure could be even lower.

[NDG]

[NDG]

Winds have really picked here in Orlando this afternoon, gusts well over 30 mph now.

[Nimbus]

Last night there was a lot of low scud off the west coast of Florida near Tampa bay. Guess this is one of those end of front tails that made it to the surface. They usually track southwest initially.

[jdray]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 091859
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...

LOW PRESSURES ACROSS THE SE GULF AND OFF THE SE COAST OF FL WILL
MERGE INTO ONE LOW AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ALONG THE FL WEST
COAST INTO MONDAY AND INTO NORTH FL BY TUE BEFORE WEAKENING.
WIDESPREAD RAIN...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS...CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
COINCIDING WITH UPPER LEVEL FORCING. HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO
COINCIDE WITH TIMES OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SINCE TIDE ANOMALIES WILL BE HIGH DUE TO STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW. IF THIS OCCURS ...FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED IN NORMALLY
PRONE AREAS ALONG THE COAST WHERE DRAINAGE MAY BE COMPROMISED. FOR
EXAMPLE...BRUNSWICK...ST AUGUSTINE...JACKSONVILLE BEACH...AND THE
SAN MARCO/RIVERSIDE AREA OF JACKSONVILLE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE
DOWN ON MONDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE AREA...THUS LOOSENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO NORTH N FL. PRECIP
CHANCES DECREASE WED AS SFC LOW DEPARTS AND DRIER AIR ADVANCES SE.
KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THE SE ZONES AS THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH.

NWS JAX pretty certain on what is going to happen. Rare to see them confident like that.

[Tampa_God]

Winds have really picked here in Orlando this afternoon, gusts well over 30 mph now.

Winds here in New Port Richey really have died down from yesterday.

[Florida1118]

Winds have really picked here in Orlando this afternoon, gusts well over 30 mph now.

Winds here in New Port Richey really have died down from yesterday.

Yeah, the winds here have died down completely, havent noticed even 10mph here so far today.

[cycloneye]

[Florida1118]

Looks alot better imo, looks like its coming together alot more

[NDG]

The vorticity east of Vero Beach now has been moving almost straight northward this afternoon.

[chris_fit]

I don't understand why this isn't named already. NHC has named storms that looked tons worse than this.

Clearly we had development of a LCC this afternoon... The winds are there TS force, and it's right next to land. Take a look at the buoys offshore for wind readings. I'm by i-95 in Brevard County and I would say it's gusting to 35-40mph already.

I mean really? Look at this on Radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[HurricaneBelle]

I don't understand why this isn't named already. NHC has named storms that looked tons worse than this.

Probably because they only gave it a 30% chance to form at 2PM. The Melbourne NWS had to put out what was essentially a homemade tropical storm warning in that SPS quoted above.

[dwsqos2]

Buoy 41009 had a gust over 50 knots.

[AJC3]

I don't understand why this isn't named already. NHC has named storms that looked tons worse than this.

Clearly we had development of a LCC this afternoon... The winds are there TS force, and it's right next to land. Take a look at the buoys offshore for wind readings. I'm by i-95 in Brevard County and I would say it's gusting to 35-40mph already.

I mean really? Look at this on Radar...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

You probably don't realize what a logistical nightmare this would cause our office to name this thing at such a late hour. We would have to cancel the Gale Warning, High Surf Advisory, Wind Advisory and Lake Wind Advisory that have been up now for two days and replace them with Subtropical Storm Warning. We would need to put out products cancelling the current advisories, and then issue a Subtropical Storm Local Statement, update the Zone Forecasts, Coastal Waters Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook, our blog and Short term Forecast. Local graphics would have to be updated as well as our forecast grids.

All this for a low center that will be moving inland shortly.

All this to describe sensible weather conditions that have been well-handled by the current suite of products.

To name this thing would be counter-productive and create a bunch of duplicative work.

Something to think about before we start calling out folks within our agency.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree AJC3, all the storm ramifications are covered in the current warnings, advisories, e.t.c.... don't see what suddenly giving it a name right before landfall in 2 hours does for anyone!!!

[brunota2003]

I see N, NE, and E winds in the surface obs...don't see any S, SW, W, or NW winds though. There is a buoy reporting 38 knot sustained winds, with gusts up to 50 knots...so 40 knots seems like a good upper end speed at the moment.

[chris_fit]

You probably don't realize what a logistical nightmare this would cause our office to name this thing at such a late hour. We would have to cancel the Gale Warning, High Surf Advisory, Wind Advisory and Lake Wind Advisory that have been up now for two days and replace them with Subtropical Storm Warning. We would need to put out products cancelling the current advisories, and then issue a Subtropical Storm Local Statement, update the Zone Forecasts, Coastal Waters Forecast Hazardous Weather Outlook, our blog and Short term Forecast. Local graphics would have to be updated as well as our forecast grids.

All this for a low center that will be moving inland shortly.

All this to describe sensible weather conditions that have been well-handled by the current suite of products.

To name this thing would be counter-productive and create a bunch of duplicative work.

Something to think about before we start calling out folks within our agency.

Never thought about that, makes sense I guess! Keep up the good work!

[AJC3]

Never thought about that, makes sense I guess! Keep up the good work!

Thanks.

[chris_fit]

Never thought about that, makes sense I guess! Keep up the good work!

Thanks.

Do you work at Melbourne NWS?

I went to FL Tech and studied meteorology for a semester. I love it but was afraid of not finding employment after graduating. I remember we took a "field trip" to the Melbourne NWS. Was a fun day!