Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Interesting ROCK!

Let's see what the ECMWF ensembles have.

[LarryWx]

Another question is what is that system in the Central Bahamas depicted at 240hrs?? At the end of the run, it looks like that Bahamas system gets pushed SW or WSW...

240hrs:
http://img546.imageshack.us/img546/1458/euro2.gif

Folks,
By this time of year, the W. Caribbean has by far become the primary breeding ground for CONUS threats. However, I decided to have a little fun and analyze how realistic is this little and somewhat unusually positioned system at day 10. It is hard to say if that would have continued much further west to allow for a CONUS hit had the model gone further. However, just for the fun of it, I did check old storm tracks back to 1851 to see how often a TC was able to hit the CONUS after 10/14 with some westward component of motion. I found a respectable 13 of these or about one every 12 years. So, this Euro solution it isn't as laughable as one might think. Six of the 13 hit as H's. Here are the 13:

1) 1853 #8
2) 1859 #7
3) 1906 #9
4) 1908 #10
5) 1923 #7
6) 1935 #6
7) 1941 #6
8) 1946 #6
9) 1947 #8
10) 1950 King
11) 1954 Hazel
12) 1985 Kate
13) 1994 Gordon

Hit dates for these OCT: 15, 15, 17, 17, 17, 18, 19, 21, 21, 23; NOV: 1, 4, 15

So, the hits are heavily concentrated within the period 10/15-23. If that system on the Euro were to hit, it would probably be ~10/22, which is within that heavily concentrated period. So, from that standpoint, the Euro's solution is believable. But alas, it is just in fantasyland right now.

[hurricanetrack]

Wow, 18Z GFS has nothing in the Caribbean Sea at 168 hours. I guess it spent all of its glory on winning the "where will the mutt-a-cane form" battle. Time will tell, but the GFS having nothing does not really scream consensus now does it?

[cycloneye]

The 12z ensembles of Euro are with the operational in 168 hours.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Turtle]

Wow, the euro sure looks nice. I haven't been here in a while since I thought tropical season was over, but it'd be great to get a few inches from something.

[wxman57]

There isn't really much there on the 12Z Euro ensembles:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Just low pressure in the western Caribbean tracking westward into Central America through 10 days. The western Caribbean will be the area to watch over the coming weeks. Quite often, late-season storms down there just move west and inland into Central America. But then can be picked up and driven north or more likely NE.

[Blown Away]

There isn't really much there on the 12Z Euro ensembles:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

Just low pressure in the western Caribbean tracking westward into Central America through 10 days. The western Caribbean will be the area to watch over the coming weeks. Quite often, late-season storms down there just move west and inland into Central America. But then can be picked up and driven north or more likely NE.

Not many more weeks left before the door can be pretty much closed for 2011.

[fci]

Here it is from early Sept...not real active the 2nd half of Sept but we did have Irene etc....


The week has been slow but lets put the GFS into perspective here. It never saw Arlene or Don in the caribbean whereas all the other models were seeing it. Here are my thoughts.

Watch the CMC for potential developement along the EC this weekend. the GFS doesnt see squat.

I think the last half of Sept is going to be big.

I think Texas will see its first October major hurricane on record. Flame away but I am going against climo here.

You mean the last of October is going to be big?
Or is it the early part of October?

As for a major to Texas, pretty uncommon but Climo has not necessarily been the way this season, so anything can be up.
MJO, I see in various threads; is supposed to be favorable and JB is talking up the next 10 days; so it looks like the season may have more surprise coming.
I am usually one who flames against people who go against climo but this season is too weird.
Plus, I rarely agree with you which makes my taking you seriously even more surprising.

[Ptarmigan]

Here it is from early Sept...not real active the 2nd half of Sept but we did have Irene etc....


The week has been slow but lets put the GFS into perspective here. It never saw Arlene or Don in the caribbean whereas all the other models were seeing it. Here are my thoughts.

Watch the CMC for potential developement along the EC this weekend. the GFS doesnt see squat.

I think the last half of Sept is going to be big.

I think Texas will see its first October major hurricane on record. Flame away but I am going against climo here.

If that is the case, not so. A major hurricane did hit Texas in October of 1949, which is the most recent.

Hurricane #10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1949_Texas_hurricane

Hurricanes have hit Texas in October and November.

November 1527
November 1590-Possible landfall
October 21, 1631 Hurricane
October 2-6th, 1837 Racer’s Storm
November 5, 1839 Galveston Hurricane
October 5, 1842
October 17, 1848 Hurricane
October 2-3, 1867
October 12th, 1880 Tropical Storm
October 12, 1886 Hurricane #10*
October 6, 1895 Tropical Storm #4
October 16, 1912 Hurricane #6
October 17, 1938 Tropical Storm #5
October 4, 1949 Hurricane #10*
October 15, 1989 Jerry

*Major Hurricane

The October 1886 Hurricane is sometimes listed as a non-major at landfall, while others list it as a major. 1886 would be the only season recorded to see two major hurricanes making landfall on Texas. Here is the probability for major hurricane to make landfall in October from 1870 to 2010.

Overall Probability For Major Hurricane To Make Landfall In October
Every 70 years

There have been two majors making landfall in October in 1886 and 1949.

Texas Hurricane History
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Both occurred in La Nina, based on Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI).

MEI datasets.
1950 to Present
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

1871 to 2005
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

[ROCK]

Here it is from early Sept...not real active the 2nd half of Sept but we did have Irene etc....


The week has been slow but lets put the GFS into perspective here. It never saw Arlene or Don in the caribbean whereas all the other models were seeing it. Here are my thoughts.

Watch the CMC for potential developement along the EC this weekend. the GFS doesnt see squat.

I think the last half of Sept is going to be big.

I think Texas will see its first October major hurricane on record. Flame away but I am going against climo here.

If that is the case, not so. A major hurricane did hit Texas in October of 1949, which is the most recent.

Hurricane #10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1949_Texas_hurricane

Hurricanes have hit Texas in October and November.

November 1527
November 1590-Possible landfall
October 21, 1631 Hurricane
October 2-6th, 1837 Racer’s Storm
November 5, 1839 Galveston Hurricane
October 5, 1842
October 17, 1848 Hurricane
October 2-3, 1867
October 12th, 1880 Tropical Storm
October 12, 1886 Hurricane #10*
October 6, 1895 Tropical Storm #4
October 16, 1912 Hurricane #6
October 17, 1938 Tropical Storm #5
October 4, 1949 Hurricane #10*
October 15, 1989 Jerry

*Major Hurricane

The October 1886 Hurricane is sometimes listed as a non-major at landfall, while others list it as a major. 1886 would be the only season recorded to see two major hurricanes making landfall on Texas. Here is the probability for major hurricane to make landfall in October from 1870 to 2010.

Overall Probability For Major Hurricane To Make Landfall In October
Every 70 years

There have been two majors making landfall in October in 1886 and 1949.

Texas Hurricane History
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Both occurred in La Nina, based on Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI).

MEI datasets.
1950 to Present
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

1871 to 2005
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

I was waiting on you to chime in..... you are the stats guy.....I did re-review the past TX hurricanes PDF and you are right. There has been some late season hits so I stand corrected. Should have narrowed it down to Galveston major landfall... odds are way against it yes...but this year you can throw odds out the window. IMO....

[N2FSU]

00Z Euro at 168H:

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS at 168H:

[N2FSU]

00Z Canadian at 144H:

[cycloneye]

Yes,Euro has been showing some development in Western Caribbean/BOC, GFS is still in the back and forth thing showing from a TD to a monster cane from run ro run (In some runs anything) and delaying the timeframes,and the others (CMC,NOGAPS,UKMET) are not on solid mode. That translates into what IMO is so far no real consensus on a true development seen on the models in general. Let's see if that changes in future runs and we can see a consensus on a development,or we see the contrary and season is over. And as Blown Away said,only a few weeks left for season to end so the models have to begin soon to show solid runs of something developing and if they do not have the consensus,then the season may be over despite the favorable MJO and La Nina completing a weird 2011 Atlantic season.

[Frank2]

The GFS shows the first Florida cold front of the year by Day 8:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx ... on=us&t=8e

[dwsqos2]

The GFS shows the first Florida cold front of the year by Day 8:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx ... on=us&t=8e

I love you.

[AJC3]

The GFS shows the first Florida cold front of the year by Day 8:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx ... on=us&t=8e

Just to be clear, this would be the second significant cold frontal passage for central Florida. The first was on 2 OCT.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The GFS shows the first Florida cold front of the year by Day 8:

http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx ... on=us&t=8e

I love you.

S2kdate.org? LOL

[DLB1752]

12Z GFS seems to drop the storm it had in early runs. Also, hello to everyone! I have been a "reader only" on here for two months, but decided to register and contribute. Been tracking hurricanes since I was I was a child, love the commentary on here. -David

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

12Z GFS seems to drop the storm it had in early runs. Also, hello to everyone! I have been a "reader only" on here for two months, but decided to register and contribute. Been tracking hurricanes since I was I was a child, love the commentary on here. -David

Welcome David! It's always great to see our lurkers convert!