Western Caribbean blob watch - Is invest 95L

[AdamFirst]

Local NBC met alluded to the possibility of a system developing in the northwest Caribbean by late this weekend.

[Rainband]

its all about the trof

[cycloneye]

Just for information only as this NAM model is not a global one,but it has a Tropical Storm in 48 hours.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[fci]

Local NBC met alluded to the possibility of a system developing in the northwest Caribbean by late this weekend.

I think Miami's AFD alludes to this:

"As the surface trough continues to move to the northeast, a weak
frontal boundary will pass southeast through Florida. Moisture
will remain rather meager ahead of the front on a southwesterly
flow. Models have backed off on the strength of the East Coast
sea breeze Thursday, but it should still result in enough
convergence for the development of isolated to scattered
afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The front will move through the local area Friday and then stall
just south of the Keys on Saturday, before lifting back north. So
while just isolated precipitation is expected Friday, the chances
of rainfall may increase as early as Saturday afternoon. Have
raised probability of precipitation a bit over mainly southern portions of the region
Saturday into Saturday night, and if models continue to depict a
faster moisture return, these may need to be raised further. How
far north the moisture gets still remains highly uncertain and
will depend on the strength and development of a low near the
Yucatan Peninsula. Deep tropical moisture may remain entrenched
across much of the region early next week, before the next cold
front approaches by next Wednesday. Overall, it looks like
another wet period is possible late Saturday through middle week.
This will be closely monitored over the next few days for the
potential of heavy rainfall over portions of the region. Recent
heavy rains will likely exacerbate the flood risk. "

Possible low developing by Yucatan + Cold Front next Wednesday could = something riding up the front like we have seen in the past......

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 13 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF EAST
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...EXTENDS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS
PRODUCING AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[NDG]

We got the crazy NAM's approval for development,

[HURRICANELONNY]

We got the crazy NAM's approval for development,

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... precip.gif

Got a love the NAM

[SouthDadeFish]

Good thing this is only the NAM

12Z at 84 hours with a large cane in the NW Carib:

[cycloneye]

GFS is not that bullish as NAM but has a low that hangs around just east of Yucatan and then moves inland to emerge on southern BOC.

12z GFS Loop

[PTrackerLA]

What is up with the NAM?! I know it's the NAM but that's a frightening scenario for sure. Will keep an eye on this.

[cycloneye]

Up to 10%

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES
HAVE FALLEN IN THIS AREA...ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Timing would seem to indicate that if anything develops, that it will likely be a Florida west coast or southwest coast impact.
Best chance is that nothing develops, or else we could have a late season surprise by Wednesday next week.

disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Sanibel]

I said to myself this morning it has rebounded strongly from the early cold of a week ago and is ripe for tropical development. I said to myself I better go to the board and post because everything is lining up for an October system. I just looked at the satellite before signing-on and

[Vortex]

18z nam rolls in 15 minutes....

[caneseddy]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
Attn Fla and gulf.. again as per previous tweets, watch the Yucatan and western Caribbean for potential trouble
4 hours ago

[wxman57]

18z nam rolls in 15 minutes....

Well, that won't tell us much. If it continues to show a big hurricane in the NW Caribbean then it's probably wrong again. And if it doesn't, well, who cares? Looking at the mid to upper-level winds, any low that tries to develop near the Yucatan would probably be driven westward and inland. Just a slight chance it could be picked up and taken NE toward south Florida. And the slower it is to develop, the less the chance of it being picked up and taken NE as a ridge develops across south FL next week.

I do think the season isn't quite over yet, and that western Caribbean IS the place to keep an eye on, though.

[Rainband]

18z nam rolls in 15 minutes....

Well, that won't tell us much. If it continues to show a big hurricane in the NW Caribbean then it's probably wrong again. And if it doesn't, well, who cares? Looking at the mid to upper-level winds, any low that tries to develop near the Yucatan would probably be driven westward and inland. Just a slight chance it could be picked up and taken NE toward south Florida. And the slower it is to develop, the less the chance of it being picked up and taken NE as a ridge develops across south FL next week.

I do think the season isn't quite over yet, and that western Caribbean IS the place to keep an eye on, though.

I am sure the peeps in the Yucatan might care????? I agree though the NAM isn't good when it comes to the tropics but the gfs is hinting of something and that has my attention. albeit slightly.

[cycloneye]

TAFB has added a low pressure just east of Belize on the 18z surface analysis.



Uploaded by imageshack.us

[Rainband]

IMO this "area" looks better than 94L. We need a floater.

[Kingarabian]

If this redevelops will it have a new name seeing as it's the remnants of Depression 12E.