Western Caribbean blob watch - Is invest 95L

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

[Rainband]

8 PM TWO

SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...CUBA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING OCTOBER.

FORECASTER AVILA/BERG

wheres dixiebreeze and our floater....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I notice on the TAFB graph it shows a labeled "monsoon trough" that the low is on. 2005's Wilma was
produced from a similar set up with a monsoon trough, but obviously conditions are not the same
now as they were at this time in 2005 (Mid October)...but the monsoon trough did catch my
attention in terms of familiarity...Miami NWS hints at a wet week next week...so try to stay
dry

[cycloneye]

The Western Caribbean waters for the most part have been free from systems allowing for the extreme warm subsurface and this factor will be important to aid on development if it occurs.Of course,warm waters alone dont develop systems but if enviroment aloft is favorable,then it can.

[ronjon]

12z UKMET shows a storm developing and moving to the north coast of the Yucatan by Tuesday morning. Lots of model support for development now which includes the NAM, GFS, UKMET, CMC, and ECM. If the UK is correct, the trough diving down into the NW GOM will pick this storm up and move it N to NE in the GOM. Should be INVEST 95L by tomorrow. It has model support, an area of disturbed weather, and in a favored climatological location. Should be a no brainer.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ukmet/12zukmet500mbHGHTPMSLtropicalukmetLoop.html

[Sanibel]

May be drifting towards Yucatan.

[AdamFirst]

I notice on the TAFB graph it shows a labeled "monsoon trough" that the low is on. 2005's Wilma was
produced from a similar set up with a monsoon trough, but obviously conditions are not the same
now as they were at this time in 2005 (Mid October)...but the monsoon trough did catch my
attention in terms of familiarity...Miami NWS hints at a wet week next week...so try to stay
dry

West Palm TV mets are alluding to higher rain chances next week up here too.

There's still standing water around my lawn from last week. Things aren't draining as fast as I thought.

From Melbourne AFD at 3:30 PM Thursday

MON-THU...UPPER FLOW BEGINS TRANSITION FROM ZONAL AS A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MID WEST AND GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE MID WEST DISPLACES THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST ALLOWING GULF AND CARRIBEAN MOISTURE TO
START MOVING UP THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THE NAM AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT THE ECM ARE MORE ROBUST WITH COHERENT SYSTEM EJECTING
N-NEWD OUT OF THE MONSOON TYPE TROUGH OVER SRN MEXICO...CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ECM BRINGS A WEAKENING SYSTEM
TOWARD FLORIDA MON-TUE. WHILE THE GFS PUSHES ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WWD
ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND TOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IT DOES SHOW A
WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL VORT AND ASCD MOISTURE SLUG TAKING OFF TO THE NE
AND ACROSS FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING WHAT
IF ANYTHING GETS LIFTED OUT TO THE NE ACROSS THE STATE.

FOR STARTERS..HAVE CONSERVATIVELY BUMPED POPS UP TO 15-20 MON AND
20-30 ALONG THE COAST/SOUTH FOR MON NIGHT FOR EXPECTED INCREASE
IN SHALLOW MOISTURE IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW. WENT 30 FOR TUE
THROUGH WED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY GET...AS WELL AS TIMING ISSUES. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD...WE`LL SEE *MUCH* HIGHER POPS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
THOSE PERIODS...AND RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THAT TUE-TUE NIGHT MIGHT
BE THE TIME FRAME WE`LL EVENTUALLY WIND UP FOCUSING IN ON FOR BEST
RAIN CHANCE. HOPEFULLY...THIS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

[Vortex]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



IMO, TD/TS will form over the NW carribean by early next week. At the same time a rather powerful trough will amplify sending the first "real" cool front of the season through SFL Wedneday..This should be enough to take the system N then NE late Tuesday and across SFL in tandem with the passing of the front. Im in agreement with the ECM.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Watching The Western Caribbean Closely For Signs Of Tropical Development
Rob Lightbown on October 14, 2011, 5:34 am

I am closely watching an area of disturbed weather in the western and northwestern Caribbean. There is an area of low pressure associated with this disturbed weather and satellite imagery this morning showed some deeper areas of convection about halfway between the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands.

The NAM model continues to significantly develop this system into a tropical storm over this weekend and forecasts it to be in the extreme northwestern Caribbean by Monday morning as a 45 mph tropical storm. Models like the European model hints at the possibility of this system becoming more of a sub-tropical system over the weekend. The European model then forecasts this system to shear apart and be entrained into a strong trough of low pressure over the eastern United States around the middle part of next week. It seems that the European and most of the other global model guidance forecasts that this system is not able to focus the energy to spin up a tropical storm, while the NAM model does forecast this scenario.

Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development with an area of 10 to 15 knots of wind shear found over the extreme western Caribbean near Belize. The Madden Julian Oscillation is currently in a favorable phase right now and the ocean waters are more than warm enough to support tropical development. Since, environmental conditions are forecast to remain somewhat favorable for development, I think there is a fairly good chance that we will see tropical development in the western and northwestern Caribbean this weekend into early next week. It likely will not be as strong as the NAM model forecasts, however, I think a solution that is a little stronger than the European model seems more likely.

This system, even if it does not develop, will bring very heavy rainfall to Central America, central and western Cuba, Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands from today through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring the likelihood of flash floods and mudslides to all of these areas.

[wzrgirl1]

So which way will it head eventually? Will it head into Belize or begin a turn and get picked up by the trough next week into the U.S. coast?

[ronjon]

So which way will it head eventually? Will it head into Belize or begin a turn and get picked up by the trough next week into the U.S. coast?

Stay tuned. Shear really relaxing in the western caribbean. Convection increasing. Should be INVEST95L sometime today.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[cycloneye]

From Miami AFD long term:

LONG TERM...

MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH MOISTURE SURGING BACK
INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION (PWATS AOB 2
INCHES). MODELS DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN. THE GFS TAKES LOW PRESSURE INTO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
SLOWLY MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. IF THE DISTURBANCE STAYS IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND MOVES NORTH AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND NAM...SOUTH
FLORIDA COULD SEE A PROLONGED RAIN/HEAVY RAIN EVENT MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE SAME REGIONS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED 6
TO OVER 10 INCHES OF RAIN. KEPT POPS 40-50 PERCENT FOR NOW SINCE
THERE IS A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

[canes04]

Where is everyone?

We have a developing system off Belize this morning and it's very quite in here.
I guess things will pickup over the weekend. This is a classic October setup.

[jlauderdal]

Where is everyone?

We have a developing system off Belize this morning and it's very quite in here.
I guess things will pickup over the weekend. This is a classic October setup.

we are here, no worries

[wxman57]

I think the broad low will remain stationary mostly over the Yucatan through Tuesday. Whether or not it becomes a TD/TS will depend on if it can move off the Yucatan over the next 3-4 days. Shear is low enough across the NW Caribbean to allow for development. By Wednesday, a rather strong cold front will reach the southern Gulf. The cooler, drier air will probably just kill off the low. Some moisture could be entrained along the frontal boundary. Could increase the rain chances for South Florida late next Wed and on Thu.

[psyclone]

I think the broad low will remain stationary mostly over the Yucatan through Tuesday. Whether or not it becomes a TD/TS will depend on if it can move off the Yucatan over the next 3-4 days. Shear is low enough across the NW Caribbean to allow for development. By Wednesday, a rather strong cold front will reach the southern Gulf. The cooler, drier air will probably just kill off the low. Some moisture could be entrained along the frontal boundary. Could increase the rain chances for South Florida late next Wed and on Thu.

that seems a very plausible (although less exciting) option. local mets here in central Florida have alluded to a very strong front that could put highs in the mid 70's (perhaps even lower) in central florida by late next week. this mess could just add in some prefrontal moisture rather than becoming a cohesive storm in advance of what looks to be a very strong cold frontal passage by october standards.

[Vortex]

FWIW, 12z NAM continues very aggressive.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS looks quite reasonable. A slow west drift across the Yucatan over the next few days then into the BoC early next week just before the arrival of a strong cold front. Certainly can't rule out some development before the strong north winds and drier air arrives on Wednesday, but whatever is there in the BoC on Wednesday as the cold front arrives won't likely survive very long. Moisture would likely be drawn northeastward up the front and aid in tstm development along the front as it crosses the Florida peninsula late Wed/Thu.

[Rainband]

12Z GFS looks quite reasonable. A slow west drift across the Yucatan over the next few days then into the BoC early next week just before the arrival of a strong cold front. Certainly can't rule out some development before the strong north winds and drier air arrives on Wednesday, but whatever is there in the BoC on Wednesday as the cold front arrives won't likely survive very long. Moisture would likely be drawn northeastward up the front and aid in tstm development along the front as it crosses the Florida peninsula late Wed/Thu.

that's what our local mets have been saying.

[wzrgirl1]

Is it inevitable that this will be 95L or not likely at this point?