Western Caribbean blob watch - Is invest 95L

[HURRICANELONNY]

I can't believe it isn't an invest yet? Even if it's on or close to the Yucatan.

[Sanibel]

EPAC may be grabbing it with the center over Guatemala.

[cycloneye]

I can't believe it isn't an invest yet? Even if it's on or close to the Yucatan.

Until there is a low center to focus on,it will not be tagged.

[boca]

What i can't believe is that no one is posting on this thread, its too quiet here.

[AdamFirst]

What i can't believe is that no one is posting on this thread, its too quiet here.

Considering how interest was tepid during last week's rain event-subtropical low, there probably won't be a spike in activity unless this system gets a name.

[Rainband]

What i can't believe is that no one is posting on this thread, its too quiet here.

Considering how interest was tepid during last week's rain event-subtropical low, there probably won't be a spike in activity unless this system gets a name.

I am very interested to say the least after what Denis phillips at ABC action news just said on our local news. At the very least a powerful squallline is in store. Anything that forms is going to be picked up and moved towards us. At any rate it's going to cool off There is a weather chat at 7pm on abcactionnews.com check it out.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 14 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED NEAR THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND MASSES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER
OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CUBA...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Sanibel]

The satellite presentation suggests formation. Of what type I don't know.

[boca]

It looks to be drifting north and could be a good rainmaker for Florida with that cold front coming by wed

[LarryWx]

Regardless of whether or not it ever becomes a TC, it appears destined to degenerate into an ugly, sheared sloppy mess as it moves toward FL per all non-gfs models I've seen. It isn't looking to be all that exciting. Don't shoot/hug the messenger.
The only potentially more interesting scenario would be that of the gfs, which has left it behind on several runs to then be left to potentially provide some mischief later.

[cycloneye]

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY FALLING...SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY LATE SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CUBA...JAMAICA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RESULTING IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[Caribwxgirl]

Disorganised though it may be but we are seeing some significant rainfall here. Its a good morning to stay in bed!

[AdamFirst]

NWS Miami releasing some strong language from their Hazardous Weather Outlook (some F-bombs...for flooding)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
442 AM EDT SAT OCT 15 2011

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST NORTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20 MPH WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF MIAMI
DADE, BROWARD, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT, AND ACROSS
THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT
IN MINOR URBAN AND STREET FLOODING, MAINLY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA, INCLUDING SOUTHERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY.

WIND: WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL INCREASE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED AS
EARLY AS THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS AS SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY TUESDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUSLY STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BECOME HIGH ACROSS THE EAST
COAST BEACHES.

IN ADDITION, AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN,
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE REGION.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

[Sanibel]

Persistence. Cool here.

[cycloneye]

Finnally is invest 95L. Go to the 95L thread to continue with the discussions about this area.

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