ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Rainband]

Most models shear this thing out or bury it in the yucatan as frontal boundary moves into the gulf next week.

Yeah, that's what they said about Wilma too, LOL. Now, I'm certainly not comparing future Rina to that intensity, but this system will be traveling in the direction of the shear (uni-directional). Shear will be strongest the further north it travels in the GOM. No doubt it'll be sheared if reaches 28N and beyond, but even sheared systems can maintain TS strength which can cause torrential rain, winds, and possible tornadoes.

Not sure most models had the center so far north off the NE tip of the Yucatan. This new low center may change the models.

TPC has the low still inland. The current thinking is not even remotely close to wilma. Both GFS/ECM entrain what ever is left of the low into the frontal boundary next week enhanceing rainfall over SFL.

Satellite indicated. Look at the convection. I guess this is the first time we have ever seen a center relocate???

[SFLcane]

Look at these updated models...

[caneman]

Most models shear this thing out or bury it in the yucatan as frontal boundary moves into the gulf next week.

Yeah, that's what they said about Wilma too, LOL. Now, I'm certainly not comparing future Rina to that intensity, but this system will be traveling in the direction of the shear (uni-directional). Shear will be strongest the further north it travels in the GOM. No doubt it'll be sheared if reaches 28N and beyond, but even sheared systems can maintain TS strength which can cause torrential rain, winds, and possible tornadoes.

Not sure most models had the center so far north off the NE tip of the Yucatan. This new low center may change the models.

TPC has the low still inland. The current thinking is not even remotely close to wilma. Both GFS/ECM entrain what ever is left of the low into the frontal boundary next week enhanceing rainfall over SFL.

How can you site the models when those models have no clue as to what is taking place? Watch the Sat. not the clueless models and you'll be in far better shape

[caneman]

And if you have to watch the models, look at the current ones just released.

[HurricaneBelle]

This setup is reminding me quite a bit of 1988's Tropical Storm Keith, which made landfall just south of Tampa Bay near Sarasota as a 65MPH TS.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Keith_(1988)

[blp]

Circulation is better defined today. Looking at the image below it appears that the low may be slightly offshore if not right on the coast.

[HurricaneBelle]

Suddenly the NAM run from Thursday depicted in this post and valid for 8PM Eastern tonight doesn't look so absurd:

viewtopic.php?p=2200690#p2200690

[Blown Away]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

72 hour TAFB has 95L as a possible Tropical Cyclone moving towards the NE after making a turn over the Yucatan.

[maxx9512]

95L models using Google Earth

[img]
[/img]

[NDG]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This is where I see a possible surface COC, just SE or SSE of Cozumel, a bit elongated SW to NE perhaps, centered near 20N & 86.5W
Arrows I placed are either reported by surface observations and seen in the vis sat loop, SW to westerly winds clearly seen on vis sat loop to the south of my estimated COC.

[cycloneye]

Circulation is better defined today. Looking at the image below it appears that the low may be slightly offshore if not right on the coast.

http://img851.imageshack.us/img851/2944/wmbas76.png

Not to dampen what you said ,but to tell the real deal of the graphic,that pass was made last night at 10:34 PM EDT. But I agree about the low better defined.

[Rainband]

This is where I see a possible surface COC, just SE or SSE of Cozumel, a bit elongated SW to NE perhaps, centered near 20N & 86.5W
Arrows I placed are either reported by surface observations and seen in the vis sat loop, SW to westerly winds clearly seen on vis sat loop to the south of my estimated COC.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... QQLko1.jpg

I agree but who knows. My eyes are playing tricks on me according to the NHC. Time for a break

[cycloneye]

[quote="NDG"]
This is where I see a possible surface COC, just SE or SSE of Cozumel, a bit elongated SW to NE perhaps, centered near 20N & 86.5W
Arrows I placed are either reported by surface observations and seen in the vis sat loop, SW to westerly winds clearly seen on vis sat loop to the south of my estimated COC.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... QQLko1.jpg{/quote]

NDG,I put the S2K disclaimer to your post.

[NDG]

This is where I see a possible surface COC, just SE or SSE of Cozumel, a bit elongated SW to NE perhaps, centered near 20N & 86.5W
Arrows I placed are either reported by surface observations and seen in the vis sat loop, SW to westerly winds clearly seen on vis sat loop to the south of my estimated COC.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... QQLko1.jpg{/quote]

NDG,I put the S2K disclaimer to your post.

OK thanks.

[cycloneye]

Nothing new from ATCF about renumbering it at this time,but that could change later today so stay tuned. If they renumber 95L,it would be the 4th number 95 that is renumbered this season.

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[jinftl]

You can seem some fanning of the cirrus clouds on the edge of the system - you often see that with developing systems

[Frank2]

Definitely something down there this morning - we'll see what happens...

Frank

[Sanibel]

I see the low level center over Yucatan with a sheared top bursting over the channel.


This was a no brainer, as someone said. Only it got choked by land interaction. Maybe it will get pulled north. Gradient gusts here.

[wxman57]

Observations put the actual low center inland about 50 miles north of Belize. But if thunderstorms become more concentrated between the Yucatan & Cuba then a new center could form. The cold front should pick it up Tuesday and drive the precip toward south Florida. Could become a weak TS before then.

[Sanibel]

It seemed an October Gulf storm was likely this year since the west basin wasn't active during the Cape Verde season. However the environment hasn't been favorable near CONUS so these sheared rainers are the result. Anything can happen though...