ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Very much off topic= 96L around the corner?

Could be. Looking at the vorticity map, it's consolidated well (abit not that strong). I'm surprised it's still at 10%. Not saying it should be code Orange, but it's looking good right now.

If anyone wants to discuss about the off-topic I mentioned,go to Talking Tropics forum.

[CourierPR]

[quote="Evil Jeremy"]Watching this intently from Tampa. Defiantly not going to be a big wind maker.

Still, 95L needs to consolidate much more if it wants to become a TS. It is getting more organized, but the vorticity is still very broad:


Defiantly not? What does that mean?

[Evil Jeremy]

Watching this intently from Tampa. Defiantly not going to be a big wind maker.

Still, 95L needs to consolidate much more if it wants to become a TS. It is getting more organized, but the vorticity is still very broad:


Defiantly not? What does that mean?

I mean that this will be more of a rain event than a wind one. I can't see this becoming anything other than a bare minimal TS. Yea, it's some wind, but nothing compared to a Hurricane. In terms of the tropics, this won't be a big wind maker.

[Rainband]

Watching this intently from Tampa. Defiantly not going to be a big wind maker.

Still, 95L needs to consolidate much more if it wants to become a TS. It is getting more organized, but the vorticity is still very broad:


Defiantly not? What does that mean?

I mean that this will be more of a rain event than a wind one. I can't see this becoming anything other than a bare minimal TS. Yea, it's some wind, but nothing compared to a Hurricane. In terms of the tropics, this won't be a big wind maker.

depends on when the front grabs it you will have to add forward motion of the trof and the windspeed of the "system" and it's direction to determine the wind impact

[Blown Away]

Looks like 95L may spend less time over the Yucatan, appears to be heading for the NE tip instead of going over Central Yucatan. Lots of deep convection, if a center forms closer to the deep convection we could see a TD soon.

[wzrgirl1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ft-l.jpg

[psyclone]

my suspicion is that for Florida it doesn't really matter whether this system is never designated, is declared a depression or even a named storm. by the time it gets here whatever definition it exhibited down south is likely to be lost as it lines out and feeds into a more mid latitude squall line feature in advance of the big cold front. i'm envisioning this as more of a winter like rain event with the tropical convection down south giving it some extra kick in the form of deep moisture. it already seems as if the rain over south florida is more of a WAA event than anything. frontal forcing looks to be the trigger for much of this rain vs a true tropical event. in any case, the rain could be heavy, some of the storms strong and perhaps even some severe potential. that's a spicy weather package that should keep us weather watchers entertained regardless of the eventual meteorlogical designation of the system.

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[ronjon]

NOAA HWRF experimental 12z run brings 95L to CAT 1 970 mb into the nature coast wednesday morning - strongest run I've seen of any of the models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011101612-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[bexar]

^

Scary Opal-like track if that verifies

[psyclone]

Opal hit the western panhandle.

[jinftl]

Latest consensus....a mid-range tropical storm impacting the peninsula....anywhere to the right of the ultimate track...whether this ever gets named or not is going to get poured on this week (as is usually the case with weak storms...the worst weather is often displaced to the right of the actual center). Urban Flood Advisory already in effect in my area for the 2-3" we have seen this afternoon. Let's watch the trend of future model runs...

[CrazyC83]

I wonder if the HWRF has it so intense only because it might be a deep extratropical low?

[jinftl]

Urban Flood Advisory already in effect in my area (Broward County)...some areas seen up to 4" this afternoon and it is still pouring...up to 6"+ in parts of the Keys

[cycloneye]

8 PM EDT TWO=Remains at 50%

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN MEXICO AND LA BAJADA
CUBA INDICATE THAT THE LARGE AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS CHANGE LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[wzrgirl1]

Could be more of a formidable storm tomorrow. These things don't just spin up that quickly. Will have a 24-36 hour opportunity to strenghthen before the cold front comes down and absorbs it. Those in south/central florida should at least be prepared for minimal tropical storm conditions to head their way on Tuesday. This of course is only my opinion, check with your local weather reports for the latest information.

[jinftl]

Interaction with land may be what holds this back over the next day or so...but if there are already winds to near t.s. force over open waters, we could see a scenario where this goes right to a tropical storm in a few days once the center gets offshore...even with the prospect of land interaction, some gradual development is possible in the next 48 hours. The 50% probability of development is in the next 48 hours...if we go beyond 48 hours that probability could be higher.

Regardless, this looks to be a huge rainmaker from the Yucatan to parts of Florida...this is already occurring.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

Interaction with land may be what holds this back over the next day or so...but if there are already winds to near t.s. force over open waters, we could see a scenario where this goes right to a tropical storm in a few days once the center gets offshore...even with the prospect of land interaction, some gradual development is possible in the next 48 hours. The 50% probability of development is in the next 48 hours...if we go beyond 48 hours that probability could be higher.

Regardless, this looks to be a huge rainmaker from the Yucatan to parts of Florida...this is already occurring.

ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL
AND THE WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.

They may be waiting for recon that goes tommorow afternoon to see what is the real deal with the winds.

[Blown Away]

Those NE Yucatan tip locations are bulls eye for SFL, if 95L consolidates over the tip it may develop into a decent TS/Hurricane! IMO

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track=Relocated low pressure position

More north and east of 18z one.

18z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011101618, , BEST, 0, 199N, 870W, 30, 1004, LO


00z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011101700, , BEST, 0, 204N, 863W, 30, 1003, LO

[Rainband]

Those NE Yucatan tip locations are bulls eye for SFL, if 95L consolidates over the tip it may develop into a decent TS/Hurricane! IMO

i agree if it wasn't for the trof. Looks like a bit of excitement for my area