ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Fyzn94]

This is going to be very, VERY interesting.

[Blown Away]

I will be interested in the 2am update and the next round of discussions from the NWS Miami/Melbourne. Previous forecasts had the low crossing over the Yucatan into the N BOC before being absorbed. Now it appears the low won't interact much with the Yucatan and be over warm Caribbean waters and move into the EGOM towards Florida.

[brunota2003]

I won't be around...will be in the field.

[cycloneye]

I will try to be here to post the first pass thru low.

[fci]

Could be more of a formidable storm tomorrow. These things don't just spin up that quickly. Will have a 24-36 hour opportunity to strenghthen before the cold front comes down and absorbs it. Those in south/central florida should at least be prepared for minimal tropical storm conditions to head their way on Tuesday. This of course is only my opinion, check with your local weather reports for the latest information.

Good news is that there really is no preparation needed for minimal tropical storm conditions in Florida.
Flooding would be the only concern and given that some areas got over 10 inches last weekend; it is a concern.
Here in my area, I welcome a bunch of rain before the dry season again. We were in between 10 inch rains in Dade and similar amounts up north of here.

[CrazyC83]

Could be more of a formidable storm tomorrow. These things don't just spin up that quickly. Will have a 24-36 hour opportunity to strenghthen before the cold front comes down and absorbs it. Those in south/central florida should at least be prepared for minimal tropical storm conditions to head their way on Tuesday. This of course is only my opinion, check with your local weather reports for the latest information.

Good news is that there really is no preparation needed for minimal tropical storm conditions in Florida.
Flooding would be the only concern and given that some areas got over 10 inches last weekend; it is a concern.
Here in my area, I welcome a bunch of rain before the dry season again. We were in between 10 inch rains in Dade and similar amounts up north of here.

The cold front could be the kicker - the models seem to want to reinvigorate the system to the north.

[Blown Away]

Throw the 00z GFS run out, it has 95L over Central Yucatan in 6 hours. Over all pattern is for the low to move towards Florida.

[jinftl]

Virgina Key (off of Rickenbacker Causeway from downtown Miami to Key Biscayne) has been reporting sustained tropical storm force winds for the last 2 hours:

FLORIDA REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
1200 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011
VIRGINIA KEY WIND E39G46

1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011
VIRGINIA KEY WIND E40

Other wind reports as of 12am:
W PALM BEACH SE22
FT LAUDERDALE E22G29
POMPANO BEACH E22G28
MIAMI E21G31

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know what to make of 95L tonight. The convection is consolidating nicely, in the Yucatan Channel, but I can't see any rotation at the latest best track estimate (20.4N, 86,3W). Could be some rotation in the ball of convection. Looks like good inflow/outflow is becoming established on satellite.

I still think that this system needs to consolidate much better before anything will form. The vorticity is broad, and most of it is overland:

[WeatherEmperor]

2am: Code Red: 60 percent

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS TO NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE WESTERN
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE AFTER THAT. ALTHOUGH THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE IS
INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT
IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

[Kingarabian]

Glad there is recon. 100 dollars this a TD or TS tomorrow.

[Evil Jeremy]

System progressing nicely tonight. Convection is popping up big time, and overall 95l is getting "that look". The vorticity is still displaced west of the main convection, but it really looks like something is starting in the big blob.

It's going to be a long (half) week.

[beoumont]

This morning's tease:

[caneman]

Sure looks like a T.S. already, plenty of wind reports to support. Not sure why they feel the need to wait.

[Vortex]

Likely an upgrade today...

[caneman]

Probably an LLC tucked in around 23 and 86 if you ask me.

[beoumont]

Probably an LLC tucked in around 23 and 86 if you ask me.

Based on satellite only, I would guess 22. 3 / 88.
RUC analysis says near Progresso, just over NW Yucatan.

[floridasun78]

it rain good here last night i lost sat signal alot for direct tv after 9pm when got bad here good thing i got home before got bad i live by mia airport

[jlauderdal]

florida power grid in fine form already, had a power surge 20 mins ago, no rain no lighting nada

[caneman]

Probably right Beaumont. Sheared like the dickens then.