ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[feederband]

Hopefully just a quick passing Tropical Storm...Dont really need the rain here...But I hate boring weather..

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion by Rob of Crown Weather

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 95L Continues To Become Better Organized & May Become A Tropical Storm Over The Southern & Eastern Gulf Of Mexico Within The Next 24 Hours
Rob Lightbown on October 17, 2011, 5:58 am

Satellite imagery, surface weather observations and detailed analysis using the CIMSS products indicates that Invest 95L, which is a large and broad area of low pressure, continues to become better organized this morning. Radar loops from Cuba indicate that whatever low level center that has formed is now located in the Yucatan Channel. Analysis from CIMSS indicates that the best convergence is located over western Cuba while the strongest divergence is located right over the Yucatan Channel. The strongest vorticity is strung out from the Yucatan Channel southwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery definitely shows some deep convection firing right in the Yucatan Channel and the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. It would not surprise me to see that vorticity center relocate to where the deepest convection and the strongest divergence is and thus this is where a tropical cyclone may develop (over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 22.5 North Latitude, 85.5 West Longitude).

Tropical storm force winds continue to be observed across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the western Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel. Invest 95L is expected to track very slowly north-northwestward into the southern Gulf of Mexico by later today and then turn more to the northeast by late Tuesday. From there, I expect Invest 95L to track northeastward and come ashore in western Florida between Tampa and Cedar Key late Wednesday morning or during Wednesday afternoon and then rapidly track northeastward up the eastern seaboard from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.

A reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 95L this afternoon and I have a suspicion that we will see this upgraded to Tropical Storm Rina late this afternoon or this evening. The SHIPS intensity guidance forecasts that this storm will come ashore on the western Florida coast as a 55 mph tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon.

It is of my opinion that when 95L turns to the northeast later Tuesday that it will be tracking nearly parallel with the shear and thus the net shear over this storm will be very low; thus, I am forecasting that we will see this upgraded to Tropical Storm Rina late today and then I expect Rina to turn to the northeast on Tuesday afternoon and increase in its forward speed. Given that Rina will be moving parallel to the highest shear from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon that it will intensify to a upper end tropical storm with 60 mph winds when it comes ashore between Tampa and Cedar Key early Wednesday afternoon. After that, Rina will track quickly northeastward up the eastern seaboard and will be a heavy rainmaker and potentially produce some strong winds up and down the US East Coast from late Wednesday through Thursday.

Heavy rainfall will continue to affect the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba today. Additionally, heavy rainfall with amounts of 2 to 3 inches are expected across south Florida and the Florida Keys today and tonight. Heavy rainfall is then expected across all of the Florida Peninsula, as well as from southern Georgia northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday and Tuesday night with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall expected across this entire area. Heavy rainfall with amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across much of New England on Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Everyone across the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys should continue to closely monitor the progress of Invest 95L. Do not be surprised to see this upgraded to a tropical storm with Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings going up as early as late this afternoon or this evening.

I will continue to monitor Invest 95L extremely closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest.

[painkillerr]

Is this expected to affect north of Orlando? I sure hope not!

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=60%,Is a go for plane this afternoon

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 100
MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE
AFTER THAT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON.

[rainstorm]

oddly enough nws here is saying the rain is over early weds am. too early?

[caneman]

I don't understand the formality of waiting for the plane to upgrade. Seems to be enough proof to upgrade now. By my guess it would make landfall Tues. night or Wed early morning. So, why not give folks a few extra hours warning.

[sunnyday]

If the rains are in the Keys/Miami area now, and the system is expected to go ashore around Tampa (a la Crown Weather), won't part of the east coast of Fl get left out ? I wonder if it won't gp north and south of WPB again. This is not an official weather statement; it is just my opinion. See the National Hurricane Center for accurate predictions.

[Rainband]

If the rains are in the Keys/Miami area now, and the system is expected to go ashore around Tampa (a la Crown Weather), won't part of the east coast of Fl get left out ? I wonder if it won't gp north and south of WPB again. This is not an official weather statement; it is just my opinion. See the National Hurricane Center for accurate predictions.

not likely with the front coming down. Still should get plenty of rain broad area of low pressure and moisture.

[wxman57]

I don't understand the formality of waiting for the plane to upgrade. Seems to be enough proof to upgrade now. By my guess it would make landfall Tues. night or Wed early morning. So, why not give folks a few extra hours warning.

There needs to be a well-defined low center for an upgrade. I can't find one in the surface obs. Winds east of the Yucatan are out of the southeast at 15-20 kts. Winds north of the Yucatan and through the FL Straits are out of the east at 20-30 kts. To the west, winds are calm across the Yucatan.

[caneman]

I don't understand the formality of waiting for the plane to upgrade. Seems to be enough proof to upgrade now. By my guess it would make landfall Tues. night or Wed early morning. So, why not give folks a few extra hours warning.

There needs to be a well-defined low center for an upgrade. I can't find one in the surface obs. Winds east of the Yucatan are out of the southeast at 15-20 kts. Winds north of the Yucatan and through the FL Straits are out of the east at 20-30 kts. To the west, winds are calm across the Yucatan.

Last night's ASCAT pass had a low center way down south near northern Belize. Nothing at all near the convection at the surface:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... EST_as.png

Well, that is a good point. Many 40 mph winds have been reported so I guess we'll have to wait and see with recon then.

[caneman]

I don't understand the formality of waiting for the plane to upgrade. Seems to be enough proof to upgrade now. By my guess it would make landfall Tues. night or Wed early morning. So, why not give folks a few extra hours warning.

There needs to be a well-defined low center for an upgrade. I can't find one in the surface obs. Winds east of the Yucatan are out of the southeast at 15-20 kts. Winds north of the Yucatan and through the FL Straits are out of the east at 20-30 kts. To the west, winds are calm across the Yucatan.

Last night's ASCAT pass had a low center way down south near northern Belize. Nothing at all near the convection at the surface:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/asc ... EST_as.png

Well, that is a good point. Many 40 mph winds have been reported so I guess we'll have to wait and see with recon then.

The scat photo is from yesterday morning though I believe.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 95, 2011101712, , BEST, 0, 227N, 874W, 30, 1003, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[wxman57]

The scat photo is from yesterday morning though I believe.

Yeah, I forgot what date it is today (17th). That ASCAT was from early on the 16th.

That 12Z position puts the center well outside the convection on the western side. That's the only circulation I can see on satellite this morning. Wind shear already appears to be on the increase (20-30 kts), so the window of opportunity for development is quite short. Regardless of whether or not it is classified before the front arrives tomorrow afternoon, the main threat to land (Florida) will be from enhanced rainfall along and ahead of the front tomorrow and tomorrow night. Rainfall amounts across the central peninsula could be in the 2-4 inch range on average, with some higher amounts. Wind inland shouldn't be that much of an issue. The NW wind behind the cold front may be stronger than the wind associated with this low over Florida.

[TheBurn]

08:15 EDT WV/Enhanced



Zoomed in

[wzrgirl1]

1800Z is what time eastern standard time?

[cycloneye]

1800Z is what time eastern standard time?

2 PM Eastern

[Weatherboy1]

Looks to me like this could a Mitch-like event for Florida. Not the monster that hit Central America, but the leftover TS that later crossed the Florida peninsula on an accelerating path to the NE. Probably some 40-50 mph gusts and heavy rain, but over fairly quickly. Very low chance of becoming something stronger, like a Cat 1 hurricane, given the shear and amount of time it has left over water -- again, all in my amateur opinion!

[wxman57]

Visible satellite shows a low center near 22N/89.2W. WELL west of any convection. Is this a vortex being "spit out" west of the convection or is this really the only LLC? If the latter, then no development today:

[Blown Away]

Looks like the front is starting to push the convection NE with or without a defined center. IMO recon will find a weak LLC along the W side of the deep convection and a low end TS will landfall just S of Tampa.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[WYNweather]

Broward Emergency Management starting the e-mails Tone is they do not seem to concerned "Broward Emergency Management is monitoring the situation"