ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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westwind
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#241 Postby westwind » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:01 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171657
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 07 20111017
164730 2439N 08840W 4101 07376 0368 -139 -154 170004 005 023 000 00
164800 2436N 08839W 4098 07380 0369 -136 -158 180003 003 023 000 00
164830 2434N 08838W 4099 07380 0369 -140 -153 177001 002 022 000 00
164900 2432N 08838W 4098 07380 0368 -144 -149 015001 002 023 000 00
164930 2429N 08837W 4101 07376 0368 -142 -148 004001 002 024 000 00
165000 2427N 08836W 4099 07380 0369 -145 -148 005002 002 030 001 00
165030 2424N 08835W 4099 07379 0369 -142 -150 285003 004 030 000 00
165100 2422N 08834W 4098 07383 0370 -140 -150 233004 005 030 000 00
165130 2420N 08833W 4098 07382 0370 -140 -155 240005 005 030 000 00
165200 2417N 08832W 4099 07381 0371 -140 -160 260005 005 026 000 00
165230 2415N 08831W 4099 07380 0371 -141 -161 270004 005 026 000 00
165300 2413N 08829W 4099 07381 0371 -145 -159 276004 004 029 000 00
165330 2410N 08828W 4098 07382 0371 -144 -162 276004 005 028 001 00
165400 2408N 08827W 4121 07355 0376 -138 -156 293005 005 027 000 03
165430 2406N 08826W 4333 06973 0358 -115 -140 330006 010 /// /// 03
165500 2403N 08825W 4558 06584 0335 -089 -182 333014 016 /// /// 03
165530 2401N 08824W 4787 06202 0310 -061 -233 000016 017 025 000 03
165600 2358N 08823W 4982 05887 0288 -038 -176 021014 015 025 000 00
165630 2356N 08822W 5174 05587 0267 -023 -065 028013 013 026 000 00
165700 2354N 08821W 5380 05277 0247 -006 -049 037016 017 025 000 03
$$
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#242 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:05 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#243 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:06 pm

wxman57 wrote:That little vortex near 22N/89.4W is probably not THE center, but it is the best rotation I can see. There may be a weak low near 23N/87W or so. Doesn't appear to qualify for a TD as the LLC is quite poorly-defined with no convection in the vicinity.



That's what I thought but the west lower banding is in conformity to it. It has probably contacted the front and done a small loop in response. New forward direction should be NE in response to the front.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#244 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:13 pm

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=7

Clouds clearing and I don't see anything else except that tight vortex. :)
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#245 Postby westwind » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:14 pm

Plane now at flight level.
000
URNT15 KNHC 171707
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 08 20111017
165730 2352N 08820W 5596 04960 0014 +014 -028 035017 019 025 000 00
165800 2349N 08819W 5805 04663 0022 +026 +015 059011 012 027 000 00
165830 2347N 08818W 6026 04361 0033 +039 +029 075007 010 026 000 00
165900 2345N 08818W 6250 04063 0041 +054 +027 150003 006 032 002 00
165930 2343N 08817W 6480 03764 0045 +066 +054 152003 005 033 001 03
170000 2341N 08816W 6703 03481 //// +057 //// 083011 014 037 010 05
170030 2339N 08815W 6948 03183 //// +065 //// 117013 016 034 006 05
170100 2337N 08814W 7183 02905 0068 +098 //// 150013 014 032 001 05
170130 2336N 08813W 7437 02614 0068 +117 +107 134010 011 /// /// 03
170200 2334N 08813W 7689 02332 0063 +137 +125 121008 009 032 004 03
170230 2332N 08812W 7947 02055 0065 +155 +136 130009 010 019 000 03
170300 2330N 08811W 8214 01774 0072 +160 +152 127011 012 020 000 03
170330 2328N 08810W 8489 01490 0075 +169 //// 120012 013 020 000 05
170400 2327N 08810W 8753 01226 0074 +184 //// 117013 013 021 000 05
170430 2325N 08809W 9036 00946 0069 +197 +196 120012 012 /// /// 03
170500 2323N 08808W 9327 00669 0067 +208 //// 114013 014 /// /// 05
170530 2322N 08807W 9570 00437 0059 +219 //// 120015 016 022 000 05
170600 2320N 08807W 9608 00398 0059 +224 +222 121017 017 022 000 00
170630 2319N 08806W 9757 00263 0056 +230 +229 125016 017 023 000 00
170700 2317N 08806W 9774 00245 0051 +230 //// 127015 016 023 000 05
$$
;
Last edited by westwind on Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#246 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:15 pm

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#247 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:16 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 171709
97779 17084 20233 88008 03000 13016 23238 /0005
41220
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 04
SWS = 21 KTS
;
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Rainband

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#248 Postby Rainband » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:17 pm

Sanibel wrote:
wxman57 wrote:That little vortex near 22N/89.4W is probably not THE center, but it is the best rotation I can see. There may be a weak low near 23N/87W or so. Doesn't appear to qualify for a TD as the LLC is quite poorly-defined with no convection in the vicinity.



That's what I thought but the west lower banding is in conformity to it. It has probably contacted the front and done a small loop in response. New forward direction should be NE in response to the front.
I guess I must not be visible on here. Well I found my answer
scottsvb wrote:correct.. once the LLC moved into the S GOM late last night... the center then spun off to the SW due to Shear and the flow in the midlevels became more of a trough set up NNE to SW from along the Yucitan NE to S Florida. LLC was on the western side of the trough so its backing now SW. A new LLC but not tropical in nature will develop later today and tonight further up north of 25N.. probably 26-29N and 85W and become to main non-tropical low as it develop and moves across the Big Bend of Florida and up the east coast. This is a set up normally in March when systems develop over the GOM and pull northward.

What's this mean? Wind.. and T-Storms (non lightning event) and rainfall of up to 6 inches.. so flooding will likely happen.. Winds won't be the factor but it will be breezy on Tuesday into Tuesday night. Weds a strong cold front will dive south and cool temps to 10-15dg below normal .. highs in the 60s north of I-4 on Thurs,Friday.. low-mid 70s south. Lows 40s north of I-4..50s S florida and along west coast up thru Clearwater.

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#249 Postby westwind » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:22 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171717
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 09 20111017
170730 2317N 08804W 9771 00249 0052 +229 //// 130015 016 022 000 05
170800 2316N 08803W 9771 00249 0051 +230 //// 134016 016 021 000 01
170830 2315N 08802W 9770 00246 0049 +230 //// 136016 017 021 000 01
170900 2315N 08800W 9770 00246 0049 +227 //// 138016 016 021 000 01
170930 2314N 08759W 9773 00242 0048 +228 //// 135017 017 022 000 01
171000 2314N 08757W 9770 00245 0048 +228 //// 136017 017 022 000 01
171030 2313N 08756W 9771 00245 0048 +229 //// 135017 017 022 000 01
171100 2313N 08754W 9771 00245 0048 +230 //// 136016 016 020 000 01
171130 2312N 08753W 9772 00244 0049 +230 //// 137015 016 020 000 01
171200 2312N 08751W 9774 00242 0049 +230 //// 135016 016 021 000 01
171230 2311N 08750W 9771 00246 0049 +230 //// 134016 017 019 000 01
171300 2311N 08748W 9770 00245 0048 +230 //// 134016 017 018 000 01
171330 2310N 08747W 9770 00246 0048 +235 +224 135016 016 019 000 00
171400 2310N 08746W 9770 00245 0048 +234 +226 137016 016 018 000 00
171430 2309N 08744W 9779 00239 0048 +234 +227 136015 015 016 000 03
171500 2308N 08744W 9769 00247 0048 +233 +227 125015 015 016 000 03
171530 2307N 08745W 9770 00245 0048 +230 //// 124015 015 015 000 01
171600 2306N 08746W 9770 00245 0048 +230 //// 123013 014 017 000 05
171630 2304N 08747W 9770 00244 0047 +231 +228 122014 015 017 000 00
171700 2303N 08748W 9773 00242 0047 +230 +228 125015 015 017 000 00
$$
;
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#250 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:23 pm

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#251 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:24 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 171717
97779 17164 20231 87800 03000 12014 23232 /0005
42115
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 05
SWS = 16 KTS
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#252 Postby jdray » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:32 pm

NWS JAX discussion:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
926 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY...
..
..
..
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST FROM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST REGION TODAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ADVANCE OF A LOW FORMING OVER THE GOMEX.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY AS CLOUD
COVER INCREASES OVER NE FL FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE INCLUDED A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS SOUTH OF OCALA BASED
ON FASTER GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION.

AS THE SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN MOVES NORTHWARD TONIGHT...SECONDARY
BROAD CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS NORTH OF THIS LOW AND SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE SFC WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT FROM CENTRAL FL AND OVER N FLORIDA TONIGHT...WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG INCREASING N-S OVER THE JAX
CWA. SFC BASED STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM JAX TO SOUTH OF LIVE OAK AFTER
06Z TONIGHT.

TUESDAY LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH ADVERTISE
BROAD SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND FROM APALACHEE BAY TUE
MORNING...THEN TRACKING NE TOWARD THE GA/SC THROUGH 00Z WED WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT BISECTING THE JAX CWA.
DURING THE MORNING
ANTICIPATE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A BRUNSWICK TO VALDOSTA LINE WHERE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES WIDESPREAD
2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS. AS THE SFC LOW DEPARTS TOWARD THE GA/SC COAST DURING THE
AFTN...STRONG WSW 850 JET OF 45-50 KTS INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE
LOW AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING DEEP LAYER
TROUGHING UPSTREAM AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE
EJECTING LOW. THE FORCING FROM THE FRONT...INCREASED DYNAMICS AND
WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY SUPPORT A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OUR COASTAL ZONES AND EXTENDING SSW TOWARD GNV DURING THE AFTN AND
EVENING TUE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.
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#253 Postby westwind » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:33 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171727
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 10 20111017
171730 2302N 08749W 9768 00246 0047 +230 +225 123014 015 017 000 00
171800 2301N 08750W 9770 00244 0046 +228 +226 123014 015 014 000 00
171830 2259N 08751W 9772 00243 0047 +225 //// 120014 014 016 000 05
171900 2258N 08752W 9770 00244 0047 +224 //// 120014 014 015 000 01
171930 2257N 08753W 9770 00243 0047 +220 //// 118013 014 016 000 01
172000 2256N 08754W 9768 00245 0047 +220 //// 119013 013 014 000 01
172030 2254N 08755W 9772 00242 0047 +220 //// 120011 012 013 000 01
172100 2253N 08756W 9771 00243 0047 +220 //// 118011 012 010 000 01
172130 2252N 08757W 9772 00242 0047 +220 //// 118010 011 011 000 01
172200 2250N 08758W 9772 00241 0046 +223 //// 118010 010 011 000 01
172230 2249N 08759W 9770 00244 0047 +225 //// 114009 010 010 000 01
172300 2248N 08800W 9769 00245 0047 +225 //// 109009 009 012 000 01
172330 2246N 08801W 9772 00242 0046 +225 //// 116009 009 010 000 01
172400 2245N 08802W 9769 00244 0046 +225 //// 115009 009 012 000 01
172430 2244N 08803W 9862 00163 0047 +231 //// 108009 009 014 000 01
172500 2242N 08804W 9912 00115 0044 +235 +235 113008 009 017 000 00
172530 2241N 08804W 9886 00138 0044 +232 //// 130007 007 015 000 01
172600 2240N 08805W 9873 00151 0044 +230 //// 134008 008 013 000 01
172630 2239N 08806W 9879 00144 0043 +230 //// 137008 008 014 000 01
172700 2237N 08807W 9877 00145 0043 +230 //// 135009 009 014 000 01
$$
;
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#254 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:33 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#255 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:38 pm

2 PM TWO=Down to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING
INVESTIGATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WELL REMOVED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DISTURBED WEATHER HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN
CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
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#256 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:44 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171737
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 11 20111017
172730 2236N 08808W 9877 00144 0043 +230 //// 129009 009 015 000 01
172800 2235N 08809W 9879 00144 0043 +230 +229 124007 008 012 000 00
172830 2234N 08810W 9877 00146 0044 +230 //// 112007 008 014 000 01
172900 2232N 08811W 9877 00146 0044 +230 //// 111007 007 015 000 01
172930 2231N 08812W 9877 00146 0044 +230 //// 120006 007 014 000 01
173000 2230N 08813W 9879 00144 0043 +230 //// 123006 006 014 000 01
173030 2228N 08814W 9877 00144 0043 +230 //// 126005 006 014 000 01
173100 2227N 08815W 9875 00147 0043 +230 //// 127005 005 016 000 05
173130 2226N 08816W 9877 00145 0042 +230 //// 122006 006 014 000 01
173200 2225N 08817W 9877 00144 0042 +230 //// 119006 006 013 000 01
173230 2224N 08818W 9879 00142 0042 +230 //// 124006 006 014 000 01
173300 2222N 08819W 9877 00144 0041 +231 //// 128006 006 012 000 01
173330 2221N 08820W 9877 00143 0041 +231 //// 127006 006 014 000 01
173400 2220N 08822W 9877 00143 0041 +230 //// 121006 006 015 000 01
173430 2219N 08823W 9877 00143 0040 +230 //// 123006 007 014 000 01
173500 2218N 08824W 9878 00141 0040 +230 //// 133006 007 015 000 01
173530 2217N 08825W 9877 00142 0039 +230 //// 134007 007 015 001 01
173600 2216N 08826W 9877 00143 0039 +230 //// 130006 007 014 000 01
173630 2214N 08827W 9880 00139 0039 +230 //// 133006 007 014 000 01
173700 2213N 08828W 9877 00142 0039 +231 //// 140006 007 014 000 01
$$
;



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#257 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:47 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 171742
97779 17414 20224 88500 02100 14011 2424/ /0004
41410
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 06
SWS = 13 KTS
;
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#258 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:55 pm

Westwind go ahead with the hdobs & I'll continue with pictures....thanks!

000
URNT15 KNHC 171747
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 12 20111017
173730 2212N 08830W 9877 00141 0039 +231 //// 134006 007 013 000 05
173800 2212N 08831W 9877 00142 0039 +231 //// 140008 009 /// /// 05
173830 2213N 08832W 9873 00146 0039 +230 //// 150010 010 014 000 05
173900 2215N 08832W 9881 00138 0038 +232 //// 147011 011 015 000 01
173930 2216N 08832W 9877 00141 0038 +235 //// 143010 010 014 000 01
174000 2218N 08832W 9877 00141 0038 +235 //// 141009 010 013 000 01
174030 2219N 08832W 9877 00140 0038 +235 //// 142009 010 013 001 01
174100 2221N 08832W 9877 00141 0038 +235 //// 143010 011 014 000 01
174130 2223N 08832W 9877 00141 0038 +235 //// 138010 010 013 000 01
174200 2224N 08831W 9879 00140 0038 +235 //// 136010 011 014 000 01
174230 2226N 08831W 9877 00140 0037 +236 +236 138011 011 014 000 00
174300 2228N 08831W 9877 00140 0037 +239 +235 138011 011 015 000 00
174330 2229N 08831W 9877 00140 0037 +239 +238 140012 012 015 000 00
174400 2231N 08831W 9878 00138 0037 +240 +237 136012 013 015 000 00
174430 2232N 08831W 9877 00140 0037 +240 +237 134013 013 016 000 00
174500 2234N 08831W 9878 00140 0037 +240 +237 132013 013 015 000 00
174530 2236N 08831W 9878 00139 0036 +240 +237 136013 014 015 000 00
174600 2237N 08831W 9877 00140 0036 +240 +237 139014 015 017 000 00
174630 2239N 08831W 9887 00132 0037 +240 +238 140013 014 018 000 03
174700 2240N 08830W 9876 00141 0037 +240 +238 139012 012 015 000 00
$$
;
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#259 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:55 pm

Image
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#260 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 12:57 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 171749
97779 17484 20227 88400 02100 14012 24242 /0004
41415
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 07
SWS = 11 KTS
;
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