ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#261 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:01 pm

Doesn't surprise me that this isn't taking off. Again, the convection is well displaced from the (still broad) vorticity over the Yucatan. Never a good setup for a developing system:

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#262 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:03 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171758
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 13 20111017
174730 2241N 08829W 9879 00139 0037 +240 +237 141012 012 016 000 00
174800 2242N 08827W 9877 00141 0037 +240 +237 143012 013 013 000 00
174830 2244N 08826W 9878 00141 0038 +240 +236 140012 012 012 000 00
174900 2245N 08825W 9877 00142 0038 +240 +236 139012 012 015 000 00
174930 2246N 08824W 9878 00140 0038 +240 +235 136013 013 015 001 00
175000 2247N 08823W 9877 00141 0038 +240 +233 137013 013 016 000 00
175030 2248N 08822W 9876 00141 0038 +239 +235 134013 013 016 000 00
175100 2249N 08821W 9877 00142 0038 +236 +235 134013 013 015 000 00
175130 2251N 08819W 9878 00141 0038 +235 +234 136012 013 016 000 00
175200 2252N 08818W 9878 00142 0039 +236 +233 138012 012 015 000 00
175230 2253N 08817W 9878 00142 0039 +237 +232 138012 012 014 000 00
175300 2254N 08816W 9879 00141 0039 +235 //// 131012 013 015 000 01
175330 2255N 08815W 9877 00142 0039 +235 +233 130013 013 016 000 00
175400 2256N 08814W 9878 00142 0040 +235 +233 131013 014 018 000 00
175430 2257N 08813W 9879 00142 0040 +235 +235 128013 014 017 000 00
175500 2259N 08812W 9878 00142 0040 +235 +233 125013 013 017 000 00
175530 2300N 08810W 9877 00142 0041 +235 +234 125012 013 017 000 03
175600 2300N 08809W 9868 00151 0041 +234 //// 128012 012 017 000 05
175630 2300N 08807W 9880 00141 0041 +233 //// 131011 011 016 000 01
175700 2300N 08806W 9877 00144 0041 +230 //// 132012 013 018 000 01
$$
;
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#263 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:04 pm

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#264 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:04 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 171756
97779 17554 20230 88200 02100 13013 24238 /0004
41515
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 08
SWS = 17 KTS
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#265 Postby wxman57 » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:05 pm

It appears that "little vortex" was the low-level circulation. It's much more apparent on visible satellite loops now. With the LLC separating from the convection by quite a distance, it appears that chances of development are about nil. Just some enhanced rain for the FL peninsula tomorrow/early Wed along and ahead of the cold front.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#266 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:08 pm

Looks like shear may be preventing any tropical development...nevertheless very wet with flooding
possible in central/south FL and the keys
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#267 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:09 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171807
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 14 20111017
175730 2300N 08804W 9875 00146 0041 +231 //// 139011 011 016 000 01
175800 2300N 08803W 9879 00142 0041 +231 //// 139011 012 016 000 01
175830 2300N 08801W 9879 00142 0041 +230 //// 142012 013 016 000 01
175900 2300N 08759W 9878 00143 0041 +230 //// 142012 013 017 000 01
175930 2300N 08758W 9876 00145 0041 +230 //// 138013 013 017 000 01
180000 2300N 08756W 9879 00142 0041 +230 //// 140013 013 016 000 01
180030 2300N 08754W 9879 00141 0041 +230 //// 137014 015 018 000 01
180100 2300N 08753W 9877 00143 0041 +231 //// 139013 014 017 000 01
180130 2300N 08751W 9878 00143 0041 +235 //// 140013 013 017 000 01
180200 2300N 08750W 9877 00145 0041 +235 //// 138013 013 018 000 01
180230 2300N 08748W 9879 00143 0041 +235 //// 137013 013 017 000 01
180300 2300N 08747W 9876 00145 0041 +235 //// 139012 012 016 001 01
180330 2300N 08745W 9877 00143 0041 +235 //// 136012 013 017 000 01
180400 2300N 08743W 9877 00145 0042 +237 +235 139012 013 018 000 00
180430 2300N 08742W 9877 00144 0042 +240 +236 138013 013 017 000 00
180500 2300N 08740W 9878 00145 0042 +240 +237 138013 013 017 000 00
180530 2300N 08738W 9876 00146 0042 +240 +237 140013 013 016 000 00
180600 2300N 08737W 9879 00144 0042 +240 +237 134014 014 019 000 00
180630 2300N 08735W 9877 00145 0042 +240 +237 132014 014 019 000 00
180700 2300N 08734W 9877 00145 0042 +240 +237 134013 013 018 000 00
$$
;
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#268 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:13 pm

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#269 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:19 pm

URNT15 KNHC 171817
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 15 20111017
180730 2300N 08732W 9879 00143 0042 +240 +236 134013 013 017 000 00
180800 2300N 08731W 9877 00144 0042 +243 +234 138014 014 019 000 00
180830 2300N 08729W 9877 00144 0042 +245 +232 141014 014 019 000 00
180900 2300N 08727W 9876 00146 0042 +244 +233 141014 015 016 000 00
180930 2300N 08726W 9879 00144 0042 +250 +227 139015 015 017 000 00
181000 2300N 08724W 9877 00145 0042 +249 +233 138014 015 016 000 00
181030 2300N 08723W 9879 00144 0042 +246 +238 140012 013 014 000 00
181100 2300N 08721W 9877 00146 0042 +248 +240 142012 012 015 000 00
181130 2300N 08719W 9877 00145 0042 +250 +240 140012 012 016 000 00
181200 2300N 08718W 9879 00144 0043 +250 +240 140013 013 017 001 00
181230 2300N 08718W 9879 00144 0042 +250 +239 140013 013 018 000 00
181300 2300N 08714W 9877 00145 0042 +252 +241 140013 013 019 000 00
181330 2300N 08713W 9879 00144 0042 +254 +238 141012 013 019 000 00
181400 2300N 08711W 9878 00144 0042 +255 +237 139013 013 020 000 00
181430 2300N 08710W 9877 00145 0042 +255 +236 138013 014 019 000 00
181500 2300N 08708W 9877 00146 0043 +255 +236 140013 013 019 000 00
181530 2300N 08706W 9878 00146 0043 +255 +235 143012 012 020 000 00
181600 2300N 08705W 9875 00149 0043 +255 +235 145013 014 020 000 00
181630 2300N 08703W 9876 00148 0043 +256 +231 147015 015 021 000 00
181700 2300N 08702W 9879 00144 0043 +256 +232 147015 015 021 000 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Recon - Discussion

#270 Postby wzrgirl1 » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:wzrgirl1, to let you know that I split your post and my reply from the main 95L recon thread to make a 95L recon discussion thread.


Perfect thanks Cycloneye! :D
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#271 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:23 pm

Image

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#272 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:25 pm

Shear and transition over to the GOM environment. The whole NW quadrant is ingesting that dry air. 2011 was unfavorable for CONUS development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#273 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:32 pm

I call bones for 2011. Will be a nice rainy day tomorrow...
Last edited by Florida1118 on Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#274 Postby DLB1752 » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:34 pm

I see the NHC has downgraded this to an "orange circle"!
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#275 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:36 pm

Yep, running late with #16...

Someone want to watch for the next set? I've got 2 phone calls I have to make today...if I want the insurance company to pay for my wrecked car that is. ;) I can pick it back up afterwhile.
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#276 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:50 pm

URNT15 KNHC 171837
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 17 20111017
182730 2300N 08628W 9877 00149 0046 +250 +242 106011 012 022 000 00
182800 2300N 08627W 9876 00150 0046 +250 +243 101011 011 021 000 00
182830 2300N 08625W 9880 00147 0046 +250 +242 101011 011 021 000 03
182900 2300N 08623W 9795 00221 0045 +244 +240 105010 012 020 000 00
182930 2300N 08622W 9723 00287 0046 +239 +237 122008 009 017 000 03
183000 2300N 08620W 9695 00313 0046 +236 +235 106009 010 021 000 00
183030 2300N 08619W 9701 00308 0046 +232 //// 106011 012 033 011 01
183100 2300N 08617W 9698 00311 //// +210 //// 116012 012 037 011 01
183130 2300N 08615W 9703 00303 //// +212 //// 131009 011 052 022 05
183200 2300N 08614W 9702 00307 0047 +231 //// 129012 013 029 002 01
183230 2300N 08612W 9702 00307 0047 +232 //// 156014 014 019 000 01
183300 2300N 08610W 9696 00311 0046 +237 +233 166014 014 019 000 00
183330 2300N 08609W 9699 00310 0046 +242 +224 173015 017 019 000 00
183400 2300N 08607W 9699 00310 0046 +245 +218 176018 018 019 000 00
183430 2300N 08606W 9700 00307 0046 +244 +220 179018 019 019 000 00
183500 2300N 08604W 9699 00310 0047 +241 +223 178019 019 018 000 00
183530 2300N 08602W 9698 00311 0047 +238 +225 174017 019 016 000 00
183600 2300N 08600W 9699 00311 0048 +235 +225 168014 016 017 000 00
183630 2300N 08559W 9699 00311 0049 +233 +232 166015 016 016 000 00
183700 2300N 08557W 9699 00311 0050 +233 +228 165014 015 017 000 00
$$
;
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#277 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:51 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171847
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 18 20111017
183730 2300N 08555W 9701 00310 0050 +231 //// 165013 014 026 002 01
183800 2300N 08554W 9702 00309 0050 +215 //// 164013 016 036 008 05
183830 2300N 08552W 9688 00324 //// +210 //// 159014 017 040 015 01
183900 2300N 08551W 9705 00308 0053 +213 //// 163021 022 034 008 01
183930 2300N 08549W 9697 00314 0053 +211 //// 172021 022 039 008 01
184000 2300N 08547W 9695 00316 0053 +222 //// 179022 023 032 007 01
184030 2300N 08546W 9703 00311 0052 +235 +225 180023 024 028 004 00
184100 2300N 08544W 9699 00313 0052 +235 +224 182022 023 025 000 00
184130 2300N 08542W 9696 00317 0052 +235 +222 182022 022 024 000 00
184200 2300N 08541W 9699 00314 0053 +232 +224 180020 021 024 001 00
184230 2300N 08539W 9699 00312 0052 +230 +226 180018 018 020 000 00
184300 2300N 08537W 9700 00312 0052 +231 +224 186019 019 018 000 00
184330 2300N 08535W 9700 00312 0052 +230 +229 185017 018 018 000 00
184400 2300N 08534W 9692 00322 0053 +225 //// 193011 012 021 002 01
184430 2300N 08534W 9692 00322 0052 +225 //// 181006 007 018 001 01
184500 2300N 08530W 9704 00309 0052 +225 //// 175009 010 017 000 05
184530 2301N 08530W 9700 00313 0054 +220 //// 172011 011 023 001 05
184600 2303N 08529W 9700 00313 0053 +224 //// 173011 012 025 002 01
184630 2305N 08529W 9704 00308 //// +208 //// 175011 012 031 006 01
184700 2306N 08528W 9699 00314 0054 +220 //// 174012 012 026 006 01
$$
;
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#278 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:51 pm

000
URNT11 KNHC 171849
97779 18474 20231 85500 03600 17010 23239 /0005
41315
RMK AF307 01JJA INVEST OB 10
SWS = 24 KTS
;
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#279 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:59 pm

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#280 Postby Dave » Mon Oct 17, 2011 1:59 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 171857
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 19 20111017
184730 2308N 08528W 9700 00313 0054 +229 //// 171011 011 024 002 01
184800 2309N 08528W 9697 00316 0055 +223 //// 158011 012 026 002 01
184830 2311N 08527W 9701 00313 0055 +224 //// 150013 014 025 005 01
184900 2313N 08527W 9699 00316 0055 +233 +228 148014 014 024 003 00
184930 2314N 08526W 9701 00313 0055 +233 +227 149014 014 023 000 00
185000 2316N 08526W 9699 00316 0055 +230 +225 145016 016 023 000 00
185030 2318N 08526W 9703 00313 0057 +222 //// 145017 018 022 000 01
185100 2319N 08525W 9698 00318 0057 +224 //// 154020 020 019 000 01
185130 2321N 08525W 9701 00315 0057 +226 +223 155020 021 018 000 00
185200 2322N 08524W 9700 00315 0057 +224 +220 151019 020 019 000 00
185230 2324N 08524W 9702 00315 0058 +223 +221 153018 018 019 000 00
185300 2326N 08524W 9696 00320 0058 +226 +219 158018 020 021 000 00
185330 2327N 08523W 9701 00315 0058 +226 +216 150021 022 024 000 00
185400 2329N 08523W 9696 00320 0058 +217 //// 143024 024 032 002 01
185430 2331N 08522W 9706 00310 0059 +201 //// 146023 025 033 007 01
185500 2332N 08522W 9692 00326 0061 +216 //// 157025 026 030 005 01
185530 2334N 08522W 9703 00316 0060 +229 +214 160024 024 029 000 00
185600 2336N 08521W 9697 00320 0058 +235 +214 169026 027 032 000 00
185630 2337N 08521W 9700 00318 0059 +228 +218 169027 028 032 000 00
185700 2339N 08520W 9704 00312 0058 +201 //// 171030 032 067 038 05
$$
;
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