ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171937
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 23 20111017
192730 2504N 08524W 8430 01543 //// +140 //// 157022 024 037 009 01
192800 2504N 08526W 8438 01542 //// +152 //// 162021 024 035 004 05
192830 2505N 08527W 8432 01547 //// +141 //// 167027 028 /// /// 05
192900 2507N 08528W 8429 01545 //// +136 //// 158024 026 044 015 05
192930 2509N 08528W 8444 01532 //// +142 //// 125027 030 041 005 05
193000 2511N 08529W 8428 01549 //// +155 //// 121027 031 039 004 01
193030 2513N 08530W 8433 01540 //// +151 //// 123023 024 039 005 01
193100 2515N 08531W 8426 01552 //// +159 //// 121023 024 039 001 01
193130 2517N 08532W 8431 01549 0073 +166 //// 123022 023 038 000 05
193200 2518N 08533W 8429 01548 0070 +170 //// 130019 020 036 000 01
193230 2520N 08535W 8430 01549 0074 +165 //// 121022 022 035 000 01
193300 2522N 08536W 8429 01549 0072 +170 //// 119023 024 035 000 05
193330 2524N 08537W 8430 01549 0072 +170 //// 126024 024 036 000 05
193400 2526N 08538W 8429 01551 0073 +170 //// 123024 024 035 001 01
193430 2528N 08539W 8431 01548 0074 +169 //// 122020 022 035 000 01
193500 2530N 08540W 8429 01551 0077 +167 +156 121017 017 037 000 00
193530 2531N 08541W 8431 01548 0079 +159 //// 129016 018 038 003 01
193600 2533N 08542W 8429 01550 0077 +165 +161 125020 020 038 000 03
193630 2535N 08543W 8311 01670 0074 +159 +155 125021 022 036 000 00
193700 2537N 08544W 8001 01999 0074 +147 +131 122020 021 036 000 03
$$
;

[Dave]

[Dave]

000
URNT15 KNHC 171948
AF307 01JJA INVEST HDOB 24 20111017
193730 2539N 08545W 7696 02319 0067 +128 +111 137020 022 035 000 00
193800 2540N 08546W 7412 02635 0064 +113 +096 135015 018 035 000 00
193830 2542N 08547W 7136 02958 0063 +098 +080 149015 016 035 001 00
193900 2544N 08548W 6892 03244 0064 +082 +061 155015 016 034 000 00
193930 2546N 08549W 6653 03549 0072 +064 +052 151017 017 033 000 00
194000 2548N 08550W 6435 03823 0077 +044 //// 147017 017 032 000 01
194030 2550N 08551W 6220 04101 0076 +030 //// 153012 014 033 000 01
194100 2552N 08552W 6003 04388 0054 +017 +016 155009 009 032 000 03
194130 2553N 08553W 5813 04625 0030 +006 +000 149005 006 032 000 00
194200 2555N 08555W 5626 04886 0019 +001 -021 062011 012 032 000 00
194230 2557N 08556W 5439 05175 0227 -011 -035 031016 017 032 000 00
194300 2559N 08557W 5281 05410 0245 -021 -059 038014 016 031 000 00
194330 2600N 08558W 5143 05621 0259 -028 -110 046012 013 031 000 00
194400 2602N 08559W 5028 05811 0272 -034 -226 043010 011 032 000 00
194430 2604N 08600W 4913 05987 0285 -045 -307 021011 011 033 000 03
194500 2605N 08601W 4798 06169 0298 -059 -385 021014 014 032 000 00
194530 2607N 08602W 4691 06351 0309 -072 -420 015012 013 031 000 00
194600 2609N 08604W 4588 06520 0316 -085 -370 003011 012 031 000 00
194630 2610N 08605W 4495 06663 0319 -097 -289 353011 012 030 000 00
194700 2612N 08607W 4408 06812 0324 -111 -266 355010 010 030 001 00
$$
;

Mission Over...

[Dave]

[Blown Away]

Looks like our little naked LLC made a hard right turn just off the Yucatan Coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Nimbus]

NOAA HWRF experimental 12z run brings 95L to CAT 1 970 mb into the nature coast wednesday morning - strongest run I've seen of any of the models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011101612-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Typical October storm we've seen lots of late season cat 1's and 2's along the west coast of Florida.
Fortunately doesn't have a lot of time to spin up before Wednesday though.

[wxman57]

Looks like our little naked LLC made a hard right turn just off the Yucatan Coast.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Yep. The 12Z GFS actually initialized it well and got the initial southerly motion right. It's poised to accelerate off to the NE tomorrow, though there may not be much of the swirl left by then.

[Rainband]

NOAA HWRF experimental 12z run brings 95L to CAT 1 970 mb into the nature coast wednesday morning - strongest run I've seen of any of the models.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011101612-invest95l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Typical October storm we've seen lots of late season cat 1's and 2's along the west coast of Florida.
Fortunately doesn't have a lot of time to spin up before Wednesday though.

also that model over does strength 90% of the time.

[Rainband]

interesting. GFS has really improved. Older run showed same as the hrwf. hmmm. I wonder if it still has a chance? Pressures tanking here all day. nah

[bexar]

2011 season does it again

[sunnyday]

I hear the fat lady singing. In fact, I heard her long ago.

[Rainband]

I hear the fat lady singing. In fact, I heard her long ago.

Bring on the cold weather. It moderates again after Sunday. Then I think there might be a chance for another system or so but these might be an interest to Peurto Rico and points east. Read the thread in talkin tropics.

[Rainband]

85-25 New center??????

[HurricaneBelle]

I wonder if we're setting up an Olga-like situation for the west coast of Florida here. In 2007, Olga had degenerated into a low-level swirl north of the Yucatan, before it was picked up, sent northeast and energized by an approaching front, and brought severe weather to the Tampa Bay area. There's a great discussion of it's impact on Florida here:

http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/8_14357.html

[Blown Away]

18z Bams/TVCN

[Blown Away]

LLC now moving NE and getting closer to the deeper convection.

[Cyclenall]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171500 AMD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 17 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-139 AMENDMENT

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS -- CHANGED
1. NEGATIVE RECAOOAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: ALL TASKING ON SUSPECT AREA IN GULF
OF MEXICO CANX BY NHC 17/1930Z

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW

Look how reconnaissance was spelled above.

[AJC3]

LLC now moving NE and getting closer to the deeper convection.

That low level swirl really hasn't moved at all over the last several hours - it's just been wobbling around near 21.7N 89.0W

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL
REMOVED FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY BEFORE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN

[AdamFirst]

Greatest severe threat will be north of the Interstate 4 corridor closer to the potential low level center, according to Melbourne's AFD.