ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[wxman57]

By the way, the low center is not at 24N/88.2W as per the latest 12Z model run initializations. It's clearly seen on visible satellite near 22.3N/88.1W, which is not far north of the Yucatan Peninsula and about 200 miles southwest of the nearest squalls.

Here's a McIdas shot of the system. I circled the center:

[sandyb]

wow folks in Florida really get scared when its gonna rain. we are expecting wind and rain here in NC but not much being said about it just another skeeter making in the works....they have hatched out from hurricane Irene that came on shore here hope yall are all ok but don't think you are gonna get hit majorly stay safe though

[caneman]

wow folks in Florida really get scared when its gonna rain. we are expecting wind and rain here in NC but not much being said about it just another skeeter making in the works....they have hatched out from hurricane Irene that came on shore here hope yall are all ok but don't think you are gonna get hit majorly stay safe though

Huh?? Give me a break. A cold frontal passage in Florida alone can do more damage than a TD or a T.S. Just check previous storms of the century that have hit us. Some of our worst coastal flooding comes from these. These fronts traverse all that open water and smack right into West Florida (wind and waves). Now combine a Tropical system with a frontal passage and West Floridians have every right to keep out a watchful eye. You should perhaps know a little more of what you comment on before commenting. Just sayin...

[psyclone]

wow folks in Florida really get scared when its gonna rain. we are expecting wind and rain here in NC but not much being said about it just another skeeter making in the works....they have hatched out from hurricane Irene that came on shore here hope yall are all ok but don't think you are gonna get hit majorly stay safe though

not really. I've had four months this year where rainfall exceeded a foot in my back yard (march, july, august and september). when it decides to rain in florida it can really dump. I would actually welcome a good soaker since the dry season is here but i don't think it's gonna happen at my latitude. we'll see.

[jdray]

The front should move back north pulling the storm more north.
Thats the thought from Tallahassee and JAX NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

...WINDY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHILE RAINFALL IS BREAKING OUT ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS...WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN UP AND LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY BREAKING OUT AREA-WIDE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE EVENT IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE SHOULD BE SPACED OUT
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION TO PREVENT THE NEED FOR A FLOOD WATCH AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

THIS AFTERNOON...AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND 1000MB LOW MOVES INTO
APALACHEE BAY IN THE NE GOMEX EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY 850MB JET AT 40-50
KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT IN TSTM
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GOOD VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELL ACTIVITY AND A LOW TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE ZFP/GRIDS. GENERAL BREEZY
CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15-20 WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MAX TEMPS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THIS EVENING...LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WINDOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG LOW TRACK AND AHEAD OF AND ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDNIGHT.

000
FXUS62 KTAE 180706
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 AM EDT Tue Oct 18 2011

.SYNOPSIS...With the large area of low pressure lurking in the Gulf
of Mexico to our south, skies have just started to increase in its
advance as of 2 AM EDT. Sct showers have also begun to develop over
the coastal waters, so precipitation, which seemed extremely far to
the south just a few hours ago could be on its way over land fairly
soon. This low of tropical origin is being lifted northward by a
strong Upper Level shortwave which is digging through the MS valley
early this morning. Over the coastal waters, winds and seas continue
to gradually increase as the low is pulled further northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...While it will still be a
complex and challenging fcst (especially during the next 24-36
hours) it is reassuring to see the bulk of the models in reasonable
agreement with the speed and strength of the Gulf Low to our south
and the Upper Trof to our northwest, save for the NAM which is still
the slow outlier. However, even the 00 UTC NAM is becoming a bit
faster with the evolution of this fast moving pattern. That said,
confidence continues to increase that this will be both a quick
hitting and quick exiting system (although the latest 00 UTC GFS
now appears to be a bit too fast), as the developing Upper Level
Trof is already becoming energized just to the west of the Lower MS
River as of late Monday Evening. A fairly solid band of showers and
thunderstorms was charging eastward through eastern KS/western MO,
as well as eastern OK/into western AR. This band extended southward
towards the Dallas/Fort Worth area as of 11 PM EDT, and the much
colder and drier air is pushing in from the northwest behind the
cold front.

Meanwhile, the area of tropical low pressure in the southeastern
Gulf Of Mexico continues to gradually move northward but is still
expected to be picked up and accelerated to the north then northeast
by the developing trof to the northwest today and tonight. While
this system remains disorganized and probabilities of it becoming a
short lived tropical cyclone have decreased to 20% (as the bulk of
the convection remains displaced to the east of the center, and wind
shear over the system will increase quickly today), it is still
accompanied by a large area of heavy rainfall with embedded
thunderstorms along with strong winds. This area of rain is
currently affecting the southern peninsula of FL and the open Gulf
waters, and is struggling to push further northward into central FL.
It is this tropical moisture which will provide the majority of the
rainfall across our CWA today and tonight, as the shortwave trof to
the NW helps to expedite its northward motion. While almost all of
our region should receive some rainfall today and tonight (with
categorical PoPs for eastern portions of the CWA), the heaviest rain
is expected to fall over the SE FL Big Bend. However, appreciable
amounts (around 1 inch or greater) could fall to the east of the
Apalachicola River. Also, depending if the atmosphere is able to
sufficiently destabilize, a few of the thunderstorms could be strong
to severe from Tallahassee eastward. If the current Slight Risk from
SPC is maintained, will add Isold T+ to the grids in this region.
This rain is still expected to come to a fairly quick end from west
to east across the region later tonight as the Upper Level Trof
sends a strong cold front barreling through the region.

[Rainband]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/sfclo ... loopb.html With the front coming down there is a squall line on the map the two area's look to meet in the eastern GOM. While area's north of tampa won't see near as much rain. I think storms will be more likely servere north of tampa later on today and tonight.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jdray]

New post so I don't have a mile long post:
http://jacksonville.justweather.com/loc ... interling/

George Winterling shows 2-4 inches of tropical rain in North Florida, 5+ inches in South Florida.

The chances of a tropical cyclone are diminishing as low pressures in the Gulf of Mexico are being stretched apart by upper level wind shear. These same upper level winds will transport abundant moisture and heavy rains across much of Florida, parts of Georgia, and the Carolina coast Tuesday and Tuesday night. By the time rain tapers off early Wednesday, rainfall amounts should total between 2 and 4 inches.

The sharp dip in the polar jet stream will sweep the Gulf low and associated rain northward up the eastern seaboard. Some of the coldest temperatures of the season will replace it, but not low enough for freezing temperatures this far south.

For those that don't know George Winterling, he has been forecasting in Jacksonville since 1962, spent 5 years with the National Weather Service predecessor, and has had his degree in Meteorology since 1957. When it comes to tropical weather, very few have more knowledge than him. He also created the Humiture/Heat Index which the weather service adopted.

He's not concerned about any tropical flareup, just a rainmaker mixed with a warm front then a cold front/trough.

[wxman57]

The front should move back north pulling the storm more north.
Thats the thought from Tallahassee and JAX NWS.

The weak warm front is already north of the Florida peninsula. Dew points have reached 70 degrees into southern Georgia. It's a very weak boundary extending along the border of Florida and Georgia. Nothing across the peninsula now to move north. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the front is helping to advect moisture northward across Florida, however. Just lots of rain heading your way, followed by the first good cold front of the season and some gusty NW winds.

[jdray]

The front should move back north pulling the storm more north.
Thats the thought from Tallahassee and JAX NWS.

The weak warm front is already north of the Florida peninsula. Dew points have reached 70 degrees into southern Georgia. It's a very weak boundary extending along the border of Florida and Georgia. Nothing across the peninsula now to move north. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the front is helping to advect moisture northward across Florida, however. Just lots of rain heading your way, followed by the first good cold front of the season and some gusty NW winds.

Yeah, big rainmaker is all. Can't wait till Thursday morning, low 40s again.... Yay!

[fci]

wow folks in Florida really get scared when its gonna rain. we are expecting wind and rain here in NC but not much being said about it just another skeeter making in the works....they have hatched out from hurricane Irene that came on shore here hope yall are all ok but don't think you are gonna get hit majorly stay safe though

Really?
Not speaking for my area, but although we did not get a named storm, areas nearby received 10 inches of rain a little over a week ago and another 4-6 or more this week.
And really, where do you see anyone scared?
We get inches of rain from summer thunderstorms on a regular basis!
Oh, and we also don't whine about mosquitos.
We get them all summer long too.

[wxman57]

All right, everyone, let's keep to the discussion of the disturbance here.

[caneman]

The front should move back north pulling the storm more north.
Thats the thought from Tallahassee and JAX NWS.

The weak warm front is already north of the Florida peninsula. Dew points have reached 70 degrees into southern Georgia. It's a very weak boundary extending along the border of Florida and Georgia. Nothing across the peninsula now to move north. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the front is helping to advect moisture northward across Florida, however. Just lots of rain heading your way, followed by the first good cold front of the season and some gusty NW winds.

We'll see about that wxman57. I'm not prepared to out of hand rule out severe weather and or isolated Tornadoes. Have lived down here far too long to just discount the threat.

[Sanibel]

That cold pocket north of Yucatan weakened the main vortex.

Windier here today with constant light rain.

Vortex on the move now ENE.

[wxman57]

The front should move back north pulling the storm more north.
Thats the thought from Tallahassee and JAX NWS.

The weak warm front is already north of the Florida peninsula. Dew points have reached 70 degrees into southern Georgia. It's a very weak boundary extending along the border of Florida and Georgia. Nothing across the peninsula now to move north. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the front is helping to advect moisture northward across Florida, however. Just lots of rain heading your way, followed by the first good cold front of the season and some gusty NW winds.

We'll see about that wxman57. I'm not prepared to out of hand rule out severe weather and or isolated Tornadoes. Have lived down here far too long to just discount the threat.

I didn't say you should rule out the chance of isolated severe storms and possible tornadoes, just that there is no warm front moving north across the peninsula presently. That Tampa NWS forecaster is incorrect in saying so.

[wxman57]

That cold pocket north of Yucatan weakened the main vortex.

Windier here today with constant light rain.
Vortex on the move now ENE.

Yeah, I see on the latest visible loop. I measured about 8-9 kts toward 060 degrees in the past hour. And that front is racing across the NW Gulf now. Already to Vermilion Bay then SW to just north or Brownsville. It should reach the disturbance in 12-16 hrs.

[caneman]

Looks like Ft. Myers to Sarasota. We may miss most of the nasty weather up here.

[otowntiger]

Our local mets disagree in that they say there is a decent tornado threat here in Central Florida. I know this not strictly because of 95L but it in combo with the approaching front is looking to stir things up around here. They were also suggesting that inland winds could be pretty high in general in and around this event.

Most of the effects of the disturbance will pass to your south. There could be a few isolated severe storms with the cold front passage this evening, but I wouldn't expect any major tornado outbreak. And, yes, the winds behind the front will be much stronger than anything produced by the disturbance.

I don't know, looks like a lot of heavy rain headed this direction. I don't know about winds and effects of the tropical system directly but its my understanding that it in conjunction with the front will produce some potentially heavy weather in this area, at least some pretty heavy drenching rains.

[Rainband]

new gfs still shows a 1000mb storm in the big bend. So much for the gfs

[psyclone]

I'm going to suggest the I-4 corridor gets little from this since it's clear the primary convective mass will miss to the south. meanwhile the convective canopy should serve to limit surface instability thereby mitigating the severe threat. we may have to depend on a prefrontal squall line for any significant rain around here.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AdamFirst]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...RAINFALL WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...

...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...

STEADY SRLY FLOW ACRS THE FL PENINSULA THIS MORNING AS A BROAD STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE ERN GOMEX INTERACTS WITH A LARGE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
WRN ATLC. THESE WINDS HAVE PUSHED DEEP TROPICAL INTO CENTRAL FL (PW
VALUES OFF THE MORNING KTBW/KXMR SOUNDINGS BTWN 2.2"-2.3") WITH
PLENTY MORE ON THE WAY (PW ON THE KMFL/KEYW SOUNDINGS BTWN
2.4"-2.5").

THE MID/UPR LVL LOW ASSOCD WITH THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GOMEX HAS
OPENED UP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE FRONTAL TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE LWR MS VALLEY. THIS WILL DRAW THE SYSTEM INTO THE PANHANDLE/BIG
BEND REGION THRU SUNSET. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS N...IT WILL PULL THE
DEEP MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT BRINGING WDSPRD RAIN TO CENTRAL FL.

SVR WX POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR VEER
TO THE S/SW. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 0-3KM HELICITY INCREASING
TO 400-600 OVER MOST OF THE CWA BTWN NOON AND SUNSET. DENSE CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT SFC HEATING AND POTENTIAL ENERGY. NEVERTHELESS...
THE STORM SYSTEM IS UNDER THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A 100KT
H25 JET MAX OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WHICH WILL ENHANCE MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC LIFT. A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY THOUGH THE NRN EXTENT OF ANY WATCH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM.