ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[HurricaneWarning92]

some very cold cloud tops with strong thunderstorms...

[otowntiger]

I'm going to suggest the I-4 corridor gets little from this since it's clear the primary convective mass will miss to the south. meanwhile the convective canopy should serve to limit surface instability thereby mitigating the severe threat. we may have to depend on a prefrontal squall line for any significant rain around here.

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yeah, I'm starting to agree with this line of thinking. Earlier it certainly looked the bulk of the rain mass was headed straight at us, but now it looks to be sliding more and more east. And the cloud cover we now have will likely lower the severe threat around here. It now looks like the local stations may have been over hyping this last night. What's new?

[Blown Away]

My opinion. LLC is catching up with the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[jdray]

Interesting AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

...INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS W-E WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NRN
FL AND STRETCHES SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR A LOW PRES OF
1005 MB ABOUT 120 MI S OF THE PENSACOLA. ANOTHER LOW PRES THAT THE
MODELS HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSING ON FOR DAYS IS LOCATED NEAR
22N87W...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE. DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTENDS INTO SRN PARTS OF
FL. ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP OVER CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. RADAR SHOWS
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BUT NO THUNDER NOTED AS OF YET. ALL
CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE HEADED N AROUND 20 MPH AND THEN NE IN THE
AFTN. CURRENT TEMPS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME SO HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DENSE FOG OVER
SE GA HAS LIFTED AND WITH ADVY THERE EXPIRED.

MODELS SHOW THE LOW PRES AREA ABOUT 120 MI S OF THE PENSACOLA TO
BE THE ONE THAT FORMS AND TAKES OVER AS THE MAIN LOW PRES. IT MAY
REFORM FURTHER S IN SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN TRACK NEWD INTO AN AREA
BETWEEN TAMPA AND APALACHICOLA AND MOVING ASHORE INTO THE BIG BEND
THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...THE STRONG DYNAMICS IN THE VERY SHORT
TERM (NEXT 4-6 HRS) WILL BE NEAR THE LIFTING WARM FRONT...AND OVER
THE NE AND E GULF WHICH WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
AFTER ABOUT 1-2 PM. THUS HAVE SHAVED BACK THE SHORT TERM POPS A
BIT AND KEPT CATEGORICAL CHANCES IN THE AFTN...THOUGH STRONG
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. AS FAR AS
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS...THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST
PRIMARILY OVER OUR NE FL ZONES AND PORTIONS OF SE GA. LLVL SHEAR
EXISTS THIS AFTN AND EVENING FOR ISOLD TORNADO RISK WITH THE RISK
A LITTLE HIGHER IN OUR NE FL ZONES. UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

Still just a rainmaker, but looks like that is the low that the GFS is seeing.

[CronkPSU]

yep...nothing here in NW Orlando at all...was forecast to be nasty all day

[sandyb]

All right, everyone, let's keep to the discussion of the disturbance here.

ok sorry didnt mean what i said as an offence to anyone, guess they took it wrong sorry will keep mouth shut and only focus on NC didnt mean any harm just stay safe if the tornados do come in your area we are in the same boat here for the same weather just saying

[Rainband]

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/4515/95lq.jpg
My opinion. LLC is catching up with the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

look at the GFS run.

[wxman57]

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/4515/95lq.jpg
My opinion. LLC is catching up with the convection.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

look at the GFS run.

Rainband, it looks like the 12z GFS may have initialized the low quite far to the north as opposed to just north of the Yucatan. Regardless, it's going to be ripped apart shortly. The squalls area already taking on more of a linear appearance in the SE Gulf as the front approaches. And look at the line of squalls developing from just west of Apalachicola SW into the Gulf along the leading edge of the front.

It appears the rain from the disturbance will primarily impact the southern third to half of the peninsula but the northern peninsula will be hit by the developing squall line ahead of the front. The two areas of squalls will probably form into one big squall line by late afternoon.

I think I got very close to 0.001" of precip from the front when it blew through Houston about 5:30am.

Oh, here's a current satellite with obs and the position of the cold front. There is a weak and dissipating circulation farther north of the one by the Yucatan. Definitely looking more like a squall line now than a circular disturbance:

[Rainband]

Thanks. I agree. They are already talking about the squall line. I was just curious why the euro op run and the gfs show a "low" in the big bend area. I see the front coming in quickly and another low is forming south of Pensacola is that what the gfs is seeing.??? Thanks again BTW Blownaway spc has you guys in for more bad weather tomorrow as well. Stay safe.

[Sanibel]

The Loop Current might give it just enough boost to resist destruction.

Steady small drop rain here without thunder typical of tropical systems.

[capepoint]

Hey, just send it on north already. We are impatiently awaiting it, and it's welcome here. Need a good mullet-blow to get the fall fishing going full-bore in the surf, and this should fill that ticket nicely.

[WeatherOrKnot]

We were under a tornado warning for about 15 minutes this morning here in Lake Worth.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=Near 0%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN
ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISPLACED WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA OF THE LOWEST PRESSURE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS NOT EXPECTED... AND IT HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS...THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA... SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

[sandyb]

Hey, just send it on north already. We are impatiently awaiting it, and it's welcome here. Need a good mullet-blow to get the fall fishing going full-bore in the surf, and this should fill that ticket nicely.

im ready for it too hope we at least got some good rain out of it and my garden could use some good rain where i just put out fertilizer this past weekend

[cycloneye]

Important news that I am posting of a Tornado watch for the area of South-Central Florida Peninsula so those who live in the counties mentioned,be on alert.

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 867
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2011

TORNADO WATCH 867 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC011-015-021-043-051-055-061-071-085-086-087-093-099-111-
190200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0867.111018T1820Z-111019T0200Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

Code: Select all

BROWARD              CHARLOTTE           COLLIER
GLADES               HENDRY              HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER         LEE                 MARTIN
MIAMI-DADE           MONROE              OKEECHOBEE
PALM BEACH           ST. LUCIE


[Sanibel]

Fast transition to frontal system. Just a squall line now off a cold front.

[CronkPSU]

the sun is out here now in Central Florida

[Florida1118]

the sun is out here now in Central Florida

I know...I was expecting it to be raining by now

[Frank2]

Good VIS photo of the swirl with the convection racing NE ahead of the LLC:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

reminds me of the Gulf systems we'd see during the El Nino of 1983-1984...

Frank

[Mildlysane]

First Post!!! Have lurked here for awhile, but figured since this was affecting me, I would register....so hello! I live in Englewood, Florida, which is just North of Charlotte Harbor. It has been gloomy and breezy here most of the day, with occasional light rain. I will try and give updates if anything changes.