Disturbed Weather SE of Windwards (Is invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

I am making this thread as NHC is starting to mention this area and the San Juan NWS has been memtioning the chance for TC formation.

8 AM TWO:

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 950 MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Gustywind]

00
AXNT20 KNHC 201147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N34W 15N40W 10N45W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N37W 11N45W 8N51W. SCATTERED
STRONG RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 22N BETWEEN 28W AND 32W.

[Gustywind]

Loop.

[Gustywind]

What could happen from this area? Let's wait and see as the season has not ended...

[ROCK]

this area looks like our next invest....very good mid-level circulation....season not over yet

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

[Tampa_God]

I don't see much happening until after the west of the islands, if it even makes it that far.

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather:

As I mentioned in the model guidance talk, some of the model guidance forecasts are forecasting a second tropical cyclone to possibly develop next week in the central Caribbean; so, my second area of potential concern is a tropical disturbance that is located near the northeastern coast of South America. Satellite imagery this morning showed some very deep convection associated with this disturbance, although vorticity associated with this disturbance is pretty strung out right now and it appears to be mostly connected with an upper level low pressure system located just east of the Lesser Antilles. Wind shear is way too strong to support any type of development anytime soon. So, this second disturbance will be monitored once we get into next week should it start developing in the Caribbean.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO=Up to 10%

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REMAINS DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[FireBird]

Wash out weekend. Time to pull out the boat and paddles.
We were swimming over here last weekend. Still recovering from some major landslides and water still subsiding with some communities entirely cut off.
Hope this stays disorganised, though it won't stop the rain.....

[cycloneye]

Wash out weekend. Time to pull out the boat and paddles.
We were swimming over here last weekend. Still recovering from some major landslides and water still subsiding with some communities entirely cut off.
Hope this stays disorganised, though it won't stop the rain.....

Hopefully,no big rain event affects that area that doesn't need more.

[Hylian Auree]

Eh, this area is a new one. The GFS had been quite insistent on the monsoon trough spawning a low pressure gyre near over Guyana. It seems it'll work its way along the coast gradually. If this develops it'll be a very low latitude tracker, but I can expect some fun weather from this regardless <3

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=Up to 20%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 350 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD IN THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW HAVE BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT HAS
INCREASED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER
NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[cycloneye]

Is invest 97L,so thread is locked.