ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vortex]

Key West discussion this afternoon:

HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST REASONING FOR THE MIDDLE AND
LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. AN EARLIER RUN OF THE ECMWF HAD AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE
KEYS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE GFS
WAS MUCH QUICKER AND DEEPER REINFORCING THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH KEPT
ANY CIRCULATION WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS
HAVE SHIFTED MORE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WITH A STRONGER LOW THANKS TO A
MUCH WEAKER UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS
HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF...WHILE THE ECMWF
ITSELF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS SLOWER WHEN COMPARED TO ITS
PREVIOUS SOLUTION. IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...DID
INCREASE OUR MID PERIOD RAIN CHANCES DUE TO THE WESTWARD AND MORE
NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. BUT I REMAINED WELL BELOW THE
GFS MOS POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. OUR NUMBERS WILL BE
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD CHANCE ON THIS ISSUANCE. OF COURSE WE WILL SEE
MANY MORE MODEL RUNS UNTIL NEXT WEEK...BUT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE
ATTENTION ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

[cycloneye]

I don't see anything up near 13N/80.5W as per 18Z best track location. Looks like all the convection and at least a mid-level rotation is near 11.5N/82W. Seems to be moving westward.

If it continues to drift that way,it will be buried in CA and the models will be wrong about the northward movement and strong intensity. But let's see how it behaves in the next 12-24 hours in terms of movement and organization.

[Vortex]

The good news *if* South Florida is impacted by a Hurricane late next week, cool/dry air will filter in as the storm passes off to the NE. Certainly much better than a hit in August...

[Typhoon_Willie]

I wonder what the storm surge levels would possibly be for the Tampa Bay, Port Charlotte and Sanibel Island areas? I also wonder how much of a northeast directional component there will be?

[dwsqos2]

Yep, it's all over; death by Nicaragua seems most likely; the season ended in early October.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

Yep, it's all over; death by Nicaragua seems most likely; the season ended in early October.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

makes sense this year. but too soon to know for sure.

[xironman]

The mid levels do look west, but at the lower levels it is hard to see anything much west of 80.

[cycloneye]

That pass was made last night (at 10:29 PM EDT) Look at the lower part of graphic.

[Blown Away]

When the TVCN goes over me I take notice!

[Evil Jeremy]

Yep, it's all over; death by Nicaragua seems most likely; the season ended in early October.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm sorry, but how can you possibly say "It's all over" when the system is getting better organized by the hour, is considered likely to form, and has strong model agreement on being pulled north and being a threat to the islands/Florida?

[Evil Jeremy]

http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/7098/96lc.jpg
When the TVCN goes over me I take notice!

For an invest, that's pretty good model agreement (taking out the useless BAMs of course).

[Macrocane]

And all the models develop it, besides the convection is not dying it is just going on and off and a center could form if it persists. Just my opinion.

[dwsqos2]

What if all the models are wrong because of bad center/vorticity placement? Then the system just goes quietly into the night like many other systems this season.

Remember just three days ago most reliable models didn't show development; they could be wrong again.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[xironman]

:uarrow: That pass was made last night (at 10:29 PM EDT) Look at the lower part of graphic.

You are right, they need to do a better display for that graphic

[Evil Jeremy]

What if all the models are wrong because of bad center/vorticity placement? Then the system just goes quietly into the night like many other systems this season.

Remember just three days ago most reliable models didn't show development; they could be wrong again.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It shouldn't matter what the models showed 3 days ago. It matters what they are showing now. And they are showing a developing system heading north towards Florida. And if you look at them, you will see remarkable model agreement for an invest. That's something to watch. You can ask "what if", or you can actually pay attention to what they are saying. You can't ignore the fact that there is currently a developing system. It's not "all over".

[dwsqos2]

More going on west and south of NHC position; doesn't bode well for the system.

[cycloneye]

18z surface analysis by TAFB is more north and east of where our friend wxman57 places it. Which one is right as it will be important where the low is to know what the future will be on intensity as the models are showing.

[dwsqos2]

The one bit of good news is that the mid-level circulation to the west looks weaker on latest satellite images, so perhaps something farther east will take over.

[KWT]

What i will say about this system is if its going to error in track one or the other, at this time of yearn the models will be too far west..so wouldn't shock me to see a GFS type solution come off...

Either way well worth keeping a close eye on...

[SFLcane]

Another look at the 18z models...