ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
8 PM TWD: (It was released before the Tropical Weather Outlook)
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS N...AND MONSOONAL FLOW TO ITS S. THIS
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN
80W-86W. CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE
WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N80W. THIS SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS N...AND MONSOONAL FLOW TO ITS S. THIS
COMPLEX SCENARIO IS GENERATING A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN
80W-86W. CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THERE IS A
LIKELIHOOD THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL FORM DURING THE
WEEKEND. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT A
SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
8 PM TWO=Up to 70%
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
I'm actually excited about this low, seeing as the season is almost over and I wasn't expecting anything else.
Edit: Almost first to post the discussion.
Edit: Almost first to post the discussion.
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Thanks Luis and Jason! Will peek in more than normal after my wife and I go spend the weekend downtown at the Fort Lauderdale art fest.
Considering how busy I get it's hard to post these days, but if/when a system looks to get close to home, I try to get in here as much as I can...
Certainly this system could be a concern as we get into next week, so yep I will be around!
Mike
Considering how busy I get it's hard to post these days, but if/when a system looks to get close to home, I try to get in here as much as I can...
Certainly this system could be a concern as we get into next week, so yep I will be around!
Mike
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- wzrgirl1
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Hmmm I really thought this last system would be it for us down here. I guess that is why the season lasts until the end of November.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
18z HWRF.


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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
00z Best Track
AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
AL, 96, 2011102200, , BEST, 0, 127N, 807W, 25, 1007, LO
ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models
Not sure the GFS is going to verify. It develops a huge coastal low at the end of next week (in the model) which shoves the tropical cyclone back to the south. I have my doubts about that ever really happening (the sudden coastal storm)
MW
MW
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- Typhoon_Willie
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS REGION...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
There is still plenty of untapped waters in the Western Caribbean for the system to grow very strong. It all depends on how the upper enviroment is to allow for it to intensify into a monster or be only a weak sheared storm.


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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Still looks quite disorganized this evening - less so than earlier today. Convection associated with the MLC is waning. Don't see too much evidence of any LLC. Without something to focus convection in one area, it'll have to wait until Sunday for development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:There is still plenty of untapped waters in the Western Caribbean for the system to grow very strong. It all depends on how the upper enviroment is to allow for it to intensify into a monster or be only a weak sheared storm.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 1293ca.jpg
Luis,
Some of the guidance takes this storm right over some of the highest if not the highest oceanic heat content in the NW Carribean just south of western Cuba.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
21/2345 UTC 12.8N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
21/1745 UTC 12.4N 81.0W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic
Southern movement seemed to have stopped earlier this afternoon. Interesting that T numbers have jumped indicating better organization even though it is hard to tell via IR imagery tonight.
21/1745 UTC 12.4N 81.0W TOO WEAK 96L -- Atlantic
Southern movement seemed to have stopped earlier this afternoon. Interesting that T numbers have jumped indicating better organization even though it is hard to tell via IR imagery tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
Disorganized at best tonight, looks like this one is listening to the naysayers
Tomorrow and Sunday will be key moments in which the thing comes into CA or goes north. So far, it's hard to tell there's anything via the IR. Let's see if new convection fires east and well offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow. For now, the chances for immediate development have dropped IMO. Not to say it still can't develop, but it should be a few days down the road if so.

Tomorrow and Sunday will be key moments in which the thing comes into CA or goes north. So far, it's hard to tell there's anything via the IR. Let's see if new convection fires east and well offshore of Nicaragua and Honduras tomorrow. For now, the chances for immediate development have dropped IMO. Not to say it still can't develop, but it should be a few days down the road if so.
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Georges '98, Irene '99, Frances '04, Jeanne '04, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Matthew '16, Florence '18, Michael '18, Ian '22
0Z GFS seems to be a little more realistic...with a cyclone passing over extreme SW Florida and the Keys late next week.
That SE movement issue seems to have gone away...
MW
That SE movement issue seems to have gone away...
MW
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Re:
MWatkins wrote:Thanks Luis and Jason! Will peek in more than normal after my wife and I go spend the weekend downtown at the Fort Lauderdale art fest.
Considering how busy I get it's hard to post these days, but if/when a system looks to get close to home, I try to get in here as much as I can...
Certainly this system could be a concern as we get into next week, so yep I will be around!
Mike
Enjoy the festival down in FTL, Mike.
You are getting ideal weather, the kind that the chamber of commerce loves for festivals!!!!
Enjoy..... BUT; we are counting on you to come back to S2K as this system evolves.
This looks to be the last gasp that the season has and it is in the prime location and has all the trappings to be a concern for us down here.
We can at least hope that Lake O gets another good shot of rain and we can continue the trend of filling the lakes and canals before the dry season.
See you HERE after the beautiful weekend!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Still looks quite disorganized this evening - less so than earlier today. Convection associated with the MLC is waning. Don't see too much evidence of any LLC. Without something to focus convection in one area, it'll have to wait until Sunday for development.
You still sticking to your earlier thought process that this will go west into CA and that "if" it goes north it will run into a shear machine and be no concern to Florida?
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Folks,
The just released 0Z Euro has the low degenerate into an open wave by 96 hours E of C.A., which is much different from the 12Z Euro. I beg you not to shoot (or hug) the mesenger.
Let's see what future runs do.
The just released 0Z Euro has the low degenerate into an open wave by 96 hours E of C.A., which is much different from the 12Z Euro. I beg you not to shoot (or hug) the mesenger.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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