ATL: EX INVEST 97L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
SINCE YESTERDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 97, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 98N, 558W, 20, 1007, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

12z Tropical Models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 221250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC SAT OCT 22 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20111022 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111022  1200   111023  0000   111023  1200   111024  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS     9.8N  55.8W   11.2N  56.8W   12.1N  58.6W   12.8N  60.7W
BAMD     9.8N  55.8W   11.7N  57.0W   12.9N  58.8W   13.5N  60.9W
BAMM     9.8N  55.8W   11.6N  56.5W   12.5N  58.1W   13.0N  60.1W
LBAR     9.8N  55.8W   11.1N  56.6W   12.3N  57.6W   13.7N  59.7W
SHIP        20KTS          18KTS          20KTS          25KTS
DSHP        20KTS          18KTS          20KTS          25KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111024  1200   111025  1200   111026  1200   111027  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    13.0N  63.3W   13.2N  68.6W   13.5N  73.6W   14.6N  78.1W
BAMD    13.8N  63.4W   14.0N  68.9W   14.4N  74.0W   15.8N  78.3W
BAMM    13.3N  62.7W   13.5N  68.6W   14.2N  74.1W   15.5N  78.4W
LBAR    14.2N  61.7W   15.2N  65.5W   15.1N  68.4W   15.5N  70.0W
SHIP        32KTS          51KTS          67KTS          82KTS
DSHP        32KTS          51KTS          67KTS          82KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =   9.8N LONCUR =  55.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =   2KT
LATM12 =   9.5N LONM12 =  55.4W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 =   2KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  54.8W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =  180NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD =  240NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 


[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Dr Jeff Masters:

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.

[Rainband]

Models seem to like 97L. This may be a bigger concern in the long term than 96L.

[CourierPR]

Models seem to like 97L. This may be a bigger concern in the long term than 96L.

You're joking, right?

[Rainband]

Models seem to like 97L. This may be a bigger concern in the long term than 96L.

You're joking, right?

no.

[cycloneye]

12z Canadian likes a lot 97L.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

[colbroe]

I beg to differ, looks like convection is on the increase on the southern side of the low

[cycloneye]

Interesting ASCAT pass made this morning at 9:00 AM EDT.

[Cranica]

That almost looks like an instrumentation error, look how square it is.

[cycloneye]

OCEANCAST pass made at 11:42 AM EDT.

[northjaxpro]

Nice counterclockwise circulation for 97L on the OCEANCAST. It is not often to see tropical development that close to the South American coast at this late stage of the season. If the system can hold together and gain a bit of latitude in the next couple of days, it may have a decent chance to become a significant tropical cyclone and possibly impact areas in the Caribbean next week. That is if the upper level conditions can be at the very least marginally conducive for 97L to try to develop in the next couple of days. We will see.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD
AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

They released this 00z one very late.

AL, 97, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 109N, 557W, 25, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models:

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KWBC 230151
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0151 UTC SUN OCT 23 2011
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972011) 20111023 0000 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        111023  0000   111023  1200   111024  0000   111024  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.9N  55.7W   11.9N  56.9W   12.8N  58.6W   13.3N  61.1W
BAMD    10.9N  55.7W   11.8N  57.4W   12.2N  59.7W   12.3N  62.6W
BAMM    10.9N  55.7W   11.8N  56.8W   12.3N  58.7W   12.4N  61.5W
LBAR    10.9N  55.7W   12.0N  56.8W   13.1N  58.8W   13.7N  61.1W
SHIP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          42KTS
DSHP        25KTS          29KTS          34KTS          42KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        111025  0000   111026  0000   111027  0000   111028  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.0N  63.8W   14.6N  69.1W   15.2N  74.2W   16.6N  79.2W
BAMD    12.4N  65.9W   12.4N  71.8W   13.1N  76.7W   14.6N  81.0W
BAMM    12.7N  64.6W   13.0N  70.5W   13.7N  75.4W   15.0N  79.8W
LBAR    14.1N  63.3W   14.6N  67.7W   15.1N  70.4W   15.4N  72.5W
SHIP        49KTS          66KTS          78KTS          82KTS
DSHP        49KTS          66KTS          78KTS          82KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.9N LONCUR =  55.7W DIRCUR =   0DEG SPDCUR =   5KT
LATM12 =   9.9N LONM12 =  55.5W DIRM12 = 342DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =   9.7N LONM24 =  55.3W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =  150NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD =  270NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[Chickenzilla]

ASCAT shows weak elongated circulation on 10 N 56 W:

[Gustywind]

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.