ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Recon now in the NW Caribbean

URNT15 KNHC 231744
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 13 20111023
173430 2119N 08555W 3759 08005 0386 -213 -340 236005 006 /// /// 03
173500 2117N 08554W 3759 08005 0386 -215 -341 237005 005 /// /// 03
173530 2114N 08553W 3758 08006 0386 -215 -343 231005 005 /// /// 03
173600 2112N 08551W 3759 08006 0387 -212 -344 233005 006 /// /// 03
173630 2110N 08550W 3759 08008 0388 -210 -344 249006 006 /// /// 03
173700 2107N 08549W 3759 08009 0388 -210 -342 248006 006 /// /// 03
173730 2105N 08548W 3758 08010 0389 -210 -341 256006 006 /// /// 03
173800 2103N 08547W 3759 08010 0390 -210 -341 265006 006 /// /// 03
173830 2100N 08546W 3759 08010 0390 -210 -341 272006 006 /// /// 03
173900 2058N 08544W 3758 08014 0391 -210 -341 275005 006 /// /// 03
173930 2056N 08543W 3759 08010 0391 -210 -340 286006 006 /// /// 03
174000 2053N 08542W 3759 08012 0391 -209 -339 294005 006 /// /// 03
174030 2051N 08541W 3759 08012 0392 -210 -339 293005 006 /// /// 03
174100 2049N 08540W 3759 08012 0392 -208 -339 298005 006 /// /// 03
174130 2046N 08538W 3759 08013 0393 -205 -340 301007 007 /// /// 03
174200 2044N 08537W 3759 08015 0394 -205 -340 307007 007 /// /// 03
174230 2042N 08536W 3759 08012 0393 -205 -338 315008 009 /// /// 03
174300 2039N 08535W 3759 08013 0394 -205 -338 317010 010 /// /// 03
174330 2037N 08534W 3758 08017 0394 -205 -337 318009 010 /// /// 03
174400 2035N 08532W 3759 08013 0394 -205 -338 323010 010 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 231754
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 14 20111023
174430 2032N 08531W 3759 08015 0394 -205 -336 323010 011 /// /// 03
174500 2030N 08530W 3759 08013 0394 -202 -336 324013 014 /// /// 03
174530 2028N 08529W 3758 08016 0395 -200 -336 324014 014 /// /// 03
174600 2025N 08528W 3758 08016 0395 -200 -334 324014 015 /// /// 03
174630 2023N 08526W 3760 08013 0395 -200 -334 324015 016 /// /// 03
174700 2020N 08525W 3758 08016 0395 -200 -335 320014 015 /// /// 03
174730 2018N 08524W 3758 08016 0395 -200 -335 319012 013 /// /// 03
174800 2016N 08523W 3758 08016 0394 -200 -334 307010 010 /// /// 03
174830 2013N 08521W 3759 08013 0394 -200 -334 315010 011 /// /// 03
174900 2011N 08520W 3759 08014 0395 -200 -334 323010 011 /// /// 03
174930 2008N 08519W 3759 08016 0396 -200 -334 327009 009 /// /// 03
175000 2006N 08518W 3759 08017 0397 -201 -334 322009 009 /// /// 03
175030 2004N 08516W 3759 08017 0398 -203 -335 325010 010 /// /// 03
175100 2001N 08515W 3759 08017 0398 -205 -336 330011 011 /// /// 03
175130 1959N 08514W 3758 08019 0397 -205 -336 334011 011 /// /// 03
175200 1956N 08512W 3762 08009 0394 -207 -336 339012 012 /// /// 03
175230 1954N 08511W 3762 08008 0394 -210 -336 345012 012 /// /// 03
175300 1952N 08510W 3761 08009 0393 -210 -337 349011 012 /// /// 03
175330 1949N 08509W 3762 08008 0393 -205 -338 338009 010 /// /// 03
175400 1947N 08507W 3762 08009 0394 -205 -338 339008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[HurricaneWarning92]

IN MY OPINION I think this is a TD or maybe low end tropical storm.

[Evil Jeremy]

If you look through the last 4 frames (covering 12 hours) of the vorticity loop, you can see that 96L's vorticity has consolidated very well today:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[NDG]

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 231805
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 15 20111023
175430 1944N 08506W 3762 08010 0395 -205 -337 340008 008 /// /// 03
175500 1942N 08505W 3762 08010 0395 -205 -337 337008 008 /// /// 03
175530 1940N 08503W 3762 08009 0394 -205 -339 324006 007 /// /// 03
175600 1937N 08502W 3762 08010 0394 -200 -339 298006 006 /// /// 03
175630 1935N 08501W 3762 08007 0395 -199 -339 297008 008 /// /// 03
175700 1932N 08500W 3762 08010 0395 -199 -339 302009 009 /// /// 03
175730 1930N 08459W 3762 08010 0396 -195 -340 288008 008 /// /// 03
175800 1928N 08457W 3762 08011 0395 -195 -342 279007 008 /// /// 03
175830 1925N 08456W 3762 08011 0395 -195 -342 277009 009 /// /// 03
175900 1923N 08455W 3762 08010 0395 -195 -342 277009 009 /// /// 03
175930 1921N 08454W 3762 08011 0395 -195 -342 266008 008 /// /// 03
180000 1918N 08453W 3762 08011 0396 -195 -342 261008 008 /// /// 03
180030 1916N 08451W 3762 08010 0395 -195 -343 265008 008 /// /// 03
180100 1913N 08450W 3762 08010 0395 -195 -344 264008 008 /// /// 03
180130 1911N 08449W 3761 08010 0393 -199 -344 265008 008 /// /// 03
180200 1909N 08448W 3763 08006 0393 -200 -343 256007 008 /// /// 03
180230 1906N 08447W 3761 08011 0393 -197 -343 243007 008 /// /// 03
180300 1904N 08446W 3762 08008 0394 -198 -341 243006 006 /// /// 03
180330 1902N 08444W 3762 08012 0396 -198 -337 255005 006 /// /// 03
180400 1859N 08443W 3761 08013 0397 -200 -332 251004 004 /// /// 03
$$
;

[NDG]

Recon still not descending.

000
URNT15 KNHC 231814
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 16 20111023
180430 1857N 08442W 3762 08012 0397 -200 -330 263004 004 /// /// 03
180500 1854N 08441W 3762 08012 0396 -200 -330 254005 005 /// /// 03
180530 1852N 08440W 3762 08011 0395 -200 -330 265005 006 /// /// 03
180600 1850N 08439W 3762 08009 0395 -200 -327 277006 007 /// /// 03
180630 1847N 08437W 3761 08012 0396 -200 -322 286007 007 /// /// 03
180700 1845N 08436W 3762 08011 0396 -201 -316 288006 007 /// /// 03
180730 1843N 08435W 3762 08012 0397 -200 -310 299006 007 /// /// 03
180800 1840N 08434W 3762 08013 0397 -205 -304 297006 006 /// /// 03
180830 1838N 08433W 3762 08011 0396 -205 -300 301005 006 /// /// 03
180900 1835N 08432W 3762 08011 0395 -205 -298 309004 005 /// /// 03
180930 1833N 08431W 3762 08012 0396 -205 -293 289001 002 /// /// 03
181000 1831N 08429W 3762 08013 0397 -205 -286 119002 002 /// /// 03
181030 1829N 08428W 3762 08013 0399 -205 -282 105002 002 /// /// 03
181100 1827N 08426W 3763 08012 0399 -201 -278 115003 003 /// /// 03
181130 1825N 08424W 3762 08014 0398 -205 -273 082001 002 /// /// 03
181200 1822N 08423W 3762 08013 0398 -203 -268 092003 005 /// /// 03
181230 1820N 08421W 3762 08012 0398 -200 -266 105006 006 /// /// 03
181300 1818N 08419W 3762 08010 0396 -197 -262 106005 005 /// /// 03
181330 1816N 08418W 3762 08012 0397 -196 -259 099005 005 /// /// 03
181400 1814N 08416W 3762 08012 0397 -196 -258 094006 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 151N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 231824
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 17 20111023
181430 1812N 08415W 3762 08013 0398 -195 -257 095006 006 /// /// 03
181500 1810N 08413W 3762 08010 0397 -195 -254 102006 006 /// /// 03
181530 1808N 08412W 3762 08008 0393 -195 -252 116003 005 /// /// 03
181600 1806N 08410W 3762 08006 0391 -195 -252 096005 007 /// /// 03
181630 1804N 08408W 3762 08002 0389 -195 -249 105007 008 /// /// 03
181700 1802N 08407W 3762 08003 0389 -193 -247 092007 008 /// /// 03
181730 1800N 08405W 3761 08004 0388 -190 -245 098008 008 /// /// 03
181800 1758N 08404W 3762 08003 0387 -187 -242 106008 009 /// /// 03
181830 1755N 08402W 3762 08002 0387 -186 -240 108009 010 /// /// 03
181900 1753N 08401W 3762 08002 0387 -190 -240 113009 010 /// /// 03
181930 1751N 08359W 3761 08002 0386 -190 -239 109011 012 /// /// 03
182000 1749N 08357W 3762 08002 0387 -190 -238 107013 013 /// /// 03
182030 1747N 08356W 3763 07999 0386 -190 -236 090011 013 /// /// 03
182100 1745N 08354W 3759 08005 0387 -190 -233 075010 012 /// /// 03
182130 1743N 08353W 3763 07999 0388 -190 -228 054014 015 /// /// 03
182200 1741N 08351W 3762 08005 0388 -190 -223 040013 015 /// /// 03
182230 1739N 08350W 3761 08007 0389 -190 -215 050011 011 /// /// 03
182300 1737N 08348W 3763 08000 0387 -189 -210 043011 011 /// /// 03
182330 1735N 08346W 3759 08007 0387 -190 -205 051010 011 /// /// 03
182400 1733N 08345W 3763 07998 0385 -186 -198 044012 012 /// /// 03
$$

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi tweeted that 96L is at least a TD.

[brunota2003]

First fix wasn't supposed to be until 3 pm EDT...and the time on station starts now...at 2:30 pm EDT.

[Evil Jeremy]

Entering the convection mass:

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 96, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 151N, 816W, 25, 1006, LO

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ ... 011.invest

18z Best Track

ATCF updated the position of this 18z update.

AL, 96, 2011102318, , BEST, 0, 154N, 815W, 25, 1006, LO

[NDG]

[brunota2003]

I think recon will find any LLC a little further south...closer to 14.9/15N

[NDG]

Now descending.

URNT15 KNHC 231834
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 18 20111023
182430 1731N 08343W 3758 08006 0386 -185 -196 062012 014 /// /// 03
182500 1729N 08342W 3764 07997 0385 -183 -190 065012 014 /// /// 03
182530 1726N 08340W 3762 08003 0385 -183 //// 071014 015 /// /// 05
182600 1724N 08338W 3762 08000 0388 -183 //// 070015 016 /// /// 05
182630 1722N 08337W 3828 07881 0387 -174 //// 065014 016 /// /// 05
182700 1720N 08335W 3903 07738 0382 -161 //// 023007 009 /// /// 05
182730 1718N 08334W 4009 07536 0369 -151 //// 001010 013 /// /// 05
182800 1716N 08332W 4107 07348 0351 -143 -143 017014 017 /// /// 03
182830 1714N 08331W 4199 07179 0341 -134 -137 053009 010 /// /// 03
182900 1712N 08329W 4297 07004 0331 -123 -131 049011 012 /// /// 03
182930 1710N 08328W 4390 06840 0320 -115 -124 065014 015 /// /// 03
183000 1708N 08326W 4474 06696 0310 -108 -120 086012 014 /// /// 03
183030 1707N 08325W 4567 06533 0298 -099 -115 106014 017 /// /// 03
183100 1705N 08324W 4656 06384 0290 -090 -110 101016 016 /// /// 03
183130 1703N 08322W 4759 06215 0279 -081 -106 100012 013 /// /// 03
183200 1701N 08321W 4870 06036 0269 -071 -102 111009 011 /// /// 03
183230 1659N 08320W 4971 05874 0259 -059 -097 119007 010 /// /// 03
183300 1658N 08318W 5080 05705 0249 -053 -092 114008 012 /// /// 03
183330 1656N 08317W 5192 05536 0242 -046 -087 130010 012 /// /// 03
183400 1654N 08315W 5313 05354 0232 -052 -082 113011 022 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending.We will know shortly what does 96L have.

[NDG]

Kind of looks like the LLC is not as tight as it was earlier this morning, not unless there's now a small one underneath the colder tops.

[brunota2003]

I think recon will find any LLC a little further south...closer to 14.9/15N

Just posting this over here, too.

[NDG]

URNT15 KNHC 231844
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 19 20111023
183430 1653N 08314W 5495 05087 0217 -028 -074 097009 010 /// /// 03
183500 1651N 08312W 5626 04898 0068 -018 -069 083010 011 /// /// 03
183530 1649N 08311W 5761 04706 0072 -010 -064 067012 013 /// /// 03
183600 1648N 08309W 5889 04530 0078 -001 -057 070011 011 /// /// 03
183630 1646N 08308W 6019 04362 0086 +008 -049 079010 011 /// /// 03
183700 1644N 08307W 6140 04199 0094 +014 -041 088012 014 /// /// 03
183730 1643N 08305W 6258 04046 0094 +024 -039 073015 017 031 001 03
183800 1641N 08304W 6379 03890 0096 +032 -031 070020 021 /// /// 03
183830 1640N 08303W 6497 03741 0097 +040 -018 080020 020 /// /// 03
183900 1638N 08301W 6623 03584 0096 +049 -013 078015 017 /// /// 03
183930 1637N 08300W 6748 03425 0094 +057 -005 079016 017 034 004 03
184000 1635N 08259W 6873 03273 0091 +067 +004 079017 018 033 006 03
184030 1634N 08257W 7001 03121 0097 +071 +016 078017 017 034 007 03
184100 1632N 08256W 7134 02966 0094 +082 +022 073015 016 032 008 03
184130 1631N 08255W 7265 02814 0097 +091 +031 067013 014 /// /// 03
184200 1629N 08254W 7399 02663 0096 +099 +039 057011 012 /// /// 03
184230 1628N 08252W 7536 02510 0094 +109 +050 048011 011 /// /// 03
184300 1626N 08251W 7674 02358 0098 +114 +068 043010 011 /// /// 03
184330 1625N 08250W 7810 02211 0102 +119 +083 043012 014 /// /// 03
184400 1623N 08248W 7949 02064 0102 +129 +094 041011 012 /// /// 03
$$