ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#301 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:50 pm

Some TD force surface winds estimated by flight instruments but have been flagged.

183930 1637N 08300W 6748 03425 0094 +057 -005 079016 017 034 004 03
184000 1635N 08259W 6873 03273 0091 +067 +004 079017 018 033 006 03
184030 1634N 08257W 7001 03121 0097 +071 +016 078017 017 034 007 03
184100 1632N 08256W 7134 02966 0094 +082 +022 073015 016 032 008 03

ronjon · #302 Postby **ronjon** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:50 pm

I think its already a TD - just need recon for confirmation. Dry air to the east and downsloping inflow off Nic/Honduras are preventing significant development. Once it moves north of 16N, look for the system to get good SW inflow off the ocean. I think this one has the potential to really ramp up to hurricane status in the next few days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

#303 Postby **brunota2003** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:53 pm

They are still descending...so not sure if they are reliable.

#304 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:58 pm

URNT15 KNHC 231854
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 20 20111023
184430 1622N 08247W 8091 01923 0112 +139 +107 049012 012 /// /// 03
184500 1620N 08246W 8242 01786 0135 +145 +116 053011 012 /// /// 03
184530 1619N 08245W 8396 01623 0130 +154 +123 053011 011 /// /// 03
184600 1617N 08243W 8551 01463 0123 +163 +131 050012 012 /// /// 03
184630 1616N 08242W 8704 01303 0118 +170 +141 047012 013 /// /// 03
184700 1615N 08241W 8859 01150 0116 +177 +154 035010 011 /// /// 03
184730 1613N 08240W 9019 00995 0116 +175 +173 340012 013 /// /// 03
184800 1612N 08239W 9156 00862 0111 +192 +178 340009 009 /// /// 03
184830 1611N 08238W 9301 00723 0108 +202 +181 353011 012 /// /// 03
184900 1609N 08237W 9402 00628 0105 +205 +189 335013 014 /// /// 03
184930 1608N 08236W 9500 00536 0102 +210 +195 330015 016 /// /// 03
185000 1607N 08234W 9584 00458 0099 +212 +203 328018 018 /// /// 03
185030 1605N 08233W 9667 00382 0098 +218 +213 327018 018 /// /// 03
185100 1604N 08232W 9751 00301 0093 +224 +220 331019 020 /// /// 03
185130 1603N 08231W 9770 00281 0089 +225 +221 328019 019 /// /// 03
185200 1601N 08230W 9774 00277 0089 +225 +223 325020 020 /// /// 03
185230 1600N 08229W 9810 00245 0089 +229 +225 321020 021 /// /// 03
185300 1559N 08227W 9867 00193 0087 +235 +227 316020 020 /// /// 03
185330 1557N 08226W 9881 00177 0085 +230 //// 314020 020 /// /// 05
185400 1556N 08225W 9876 00182 0085 +227 //// 315019 021 /// /// 05
$$

#305 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 1:58 pm

Next 1 or 2 data sets should let us know if we have a circulation down there.

#306 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:01 pm

The way the recon is heading as if the COC could be further west than estimated earlier.

#307 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:04 pm

Also, not a lot of strong winds at flight level so far, for passing through some fo the strongest convection that it has.

#308 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:05 pm

#309 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:09 pm

URNT15 KNHC 231904
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 21 20111023
185430 1555N 08224W 9878 00181 0085 +230 +227 321016 018 /// /// 03
185500 1553N 08223W 9876 00182 0084 +232 +228 323016 018 /// /// 03
185530 1552N 08222W 9876 00183 0084 +235 +225 329015 016 /// /// 03
185600 1551N 08221W 9880 00178 0085 +234 +224 340014 015 /// /// 03
185630 1549N 08220W 9875 00183 0084 +233 +225 347016 017 /// /// 03
185700 1548N 08218W 9882 00176 0083 +234 +226 341017 018 /// /// 03
185730 1547N 08217W 9878 00180 0083 +232 +225 343017 017 /// /// 03
185800 1545N 08216W 9880 00177 0082 +235 +217 345017 018 /// /// 03
185830 1544N 08215W 9879 00177 0081 +234 +221 338018 018 /// /// 03
185900 1543N 08214W 9880 00177 0082 +235 +211 342019 019 /// /// 03
185930 1541N 08213W 9878 00177 0081 +230 +213 342020 021 /// /// 03
190000 1540N 08212W 9878 00177 0081 +230 +217 343021 021 /// /// 03
190030 1539N 08210W 9880 00175 0079 +230 +220 346022 022 /// /// 03
190100 1537N 08209W 9872 00178 0078 +230 +223 344021 021 /// /// 03
190130 1536N 08208W 9879 00177 0081 +231 +225 341021 021 /// /// 03
190200 1534N 08207W 9881 00173 0080 +235 +228 341019 019 /// /// 03
190230 1533N 08206W 9879 00175 0078 +237 +228 338017 018 /// /// 03
190300 1531N 08204W 9878 00173 0077 +238 +228 338016 017 /// /// 03
190330 1530N 08203W 9879 00172 0076 +239 +229 340014 016 020 001 03
190400 1529N 08202W 9876 00173 0075 +240 +227 341012 012 /// /// 03

#310 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:11 pm

1007mb so far, still NW winds.
I doubt they will find any TD force winds as it gets closer to the COC as the recon already passed some of the strongest convection, they will have to sample the northern & western quadrant again to see if any TD force winds are present.

#311 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:17 pm

West winds!

URNT15 KNHC 231914
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 22 20111023
190430 1527N 08201W 9880 00172 0076 +240 +227 340011 011 019 000 03
190500 1526N 08200W 9879 00173 0077 +240 +226 336010 011 017 000 03
190530 1524N 08158W 9878 00176 0077 +240 +228 325010 011 016 000 03
190600 1523N 08157W 9880 00173 0078 +240 +225 325011 012 /// /// 03
190630 1522N 08156W 9880 00172 0078 +240 +225 316010 011 /// /// 03
190700 1520N 08155W 9881 00172 0077 +237 +227 308010 011 /// /// 03
190730 1519N 08154W 9877 00176 0077 +239 +230 298010 011 /// /// 03
190800 1518N 08152W 9877 00173 0076 +239 +228 285008 009 /// /// 03
190830 1518N 08150W 9880 00172 0077 +240 +226 254006 007 013 000 03
190900 1518N 08149W 9880 00172 0077 +240 +226 248007 007 014 000 03
190930 1518N 08147W 9879 00173 0076 +240 +225 239008 008 012 000 03
191000 1518N 08145W 9872 00180 0076 +240 +224 229009 009 011 000 03
191030 1518N 08143W 9882 00171 0077 +240 +225 231010 010 014 000 03
191100 1518N 08141W 9881 00173 0078 +242 +226 228010 011 015 000 03
191130 1518N 08139W 9881 00172 0078 +243 +225 218011 011 016 000 03
191200 1518N 08137W 9878 00175 0078 +243 +225 216012 012 /// /// 03
191230 1518N 08135W 9878 00176 0078 +244 +227 217012 013 016 000 03
191300 1518N 08133W 9880 00173 0078 +245 +223 212013 014 016 000 00
191330 1518N 08131W 9880 00176 0080 +245 +218 209014 014 018 000 00
191400 1519N 08129W 9883 00173 0080 +249 +216 200014 014 014 000 03
$$

#312 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:19 pm

Looks like 15.3N & 81.9W is where they have found a COC, 1007mb is the lowest pressure they have found, no reliable TD force winds found so far.

#313 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:23 pm

NDG wrote:Looks like 15.3N & 81.9W is where they have found a COC, 1007mb is the lowest pressure they have found, no reliable TD force winds found so far.

And west winds found.

#314 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:26 pm

Waiting for a VDM. If we get one, upgrade at 5.

#315 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:34 pm

Interesting they found lower surface pressures NE of what I thought was going to be the COC, but they SE winds there, so could be that they missed the COC.

#316 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:34 pm

URNT15 KNHC 231924
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 23 20111023
191430 1520N 08128W 9878 00176 0077 +247 +221 185014 015 017 000 03
191500 1522N 08128W 9884 00163 0069 +248 +224 179015 015 019 000 00
191530 1524N 08128W 9878 00164 0065 +248 +224 177015 015 018 000 00
191600 1526N 08128W 9878 00163 0063 +250 +225 177014 014 017 000 00
191630 1528N 08128W 9877 00161 0060 +250 +223 171014 014 016 000 00
191700 1529N 08128W 9885 00154 0060 +250 +223 168014 014 016 000 00
191730 1531N 08128W 9880 00159 0059 +250 +222 168015 016 018 000 00
191800 1533N 08128W 9880 00158 0059 +250 +222 168016 017 018 000 00
191830 1535N 08128W 9880 00160 0060 +250 +224 163017 017 020 000 00
191900 1537N 08128W 9878 00160 0059 +250 +224 161017 018 018 000 00
191930 1539N 08128W 9880 00156 0058 +250 +225 159018 018 017 000 00
192000 1541N 08129W 9880 00155 0058 +250 +225 156019 019 018 000 00
192030 1543N 08129W 9881 00156 0058 +251 +225 153019 020 020 000 00
192100 1545N 08129W 9879 00158 0058 +254 +226 152020 021 021 001 00
192130 1547N 08129W 9882 00155 0059 +255 +224 150021 021 020 000 00
192200 1549N 08129W 9876 00161 0060 +255 +222 149021 022 021 000 00
192230 1551N 08129W 9880 00158 0059 +255 +226 145020 021 021 000 00
192300 1553N 08129W 9885 00154 0058 +255 +228 142020 020 020 000 00
192330 1555N 08129W 9878 00159 0059 +256 +226 138018 019 018 000 00
192400 1557N 08129W 9884 00150 0056 +256 +230 135018 019 015 000 00
$$

#317 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:37 pm

URNT15 KNHC 231934
AF306 01KKA INVEST HDOB 24 20111023
192430 1559N 08129W 9878 00159 0058 +255 +227 133018 019 015 000 00
192500 1600N 08129W 9880 00158 0059 +253 +230 133019 020 020 000 00
192530 1602N 08129W 9874 00165 0060 +256 +230 132021 022 022 001 03
192600 1604N 08129W 9879 00159 0059 +260 +229 126020 021 021 000 00
192630 1606N 08129W 9880 00158 0059 +260 +227 127021 022 020 001 00
192700 1608N 08129W 9877 00159 0058 +260 +226 127021 021 019 000 03
192730 1609N 08129W 9874 00160 0056 +260 +226 120022 022 /// /// 03
192800 1610N 08131W 9882 00154 0056 +260 +225 115020 021 021 000 03
192830 1610N 08133W 9887 00148 0055 +260 +226 116020 021 020 000 00
192900 1610N 08135W 9878 00155 0054 +260 +222 114021 022 023 000 00
192930 1610N 08137W 9879 00155 0055 +260 +223 114021 022 021 000 00
193000 1610N 08139W 9879 00155 0056 +260 +227 115020 020 019 000 00
193030 1610N 08141W 9880 00154 0055 +260 +228 115020 021 018 000 00
193100 1610N 08142W 9878 00155 0054 +260 +226 112021 021 020 000 00
193130 1609N 08144W 9879 00155 0055 +260 +230 107020 021 021 000 00
193200 1609N 08146W 9880 00155 0055 +259 +232 105018 019 019 000 00
193230 1609N 08148W 9879 00154 0054 +256 +233 100018 018 019 000 00
193300 1609N 08150W 9877 00156 0054 +256 +232 096017 017 018 000 00
193330 1609N 08152W 9877 00156 0053 +256 +230 085016 017 018 000 00
193400 1609N 08153W 9879 00153 0053 +251 +231 065012 014 016 000 00
$$

#318 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:38 pm

Recon is now heading back, so they probably feel that they missed the true COC, pressure found now down to 1005mb.

#319 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:44 pm

NDG wrote:Recon is now heading back, so they probably feel that they missed the true COC, pressure found now down to 1005mb.

Heading back home or into the system again?

#320 Postby **NDG** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 2:45 pm

ATL: RINA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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